NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 14): Jalen Hurts So Good

NFL Week 10 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are currently listed as 11-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

In his third professional season, Jalen Hurts has blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy. He’s always been one of the best runners at the position, and he’s putting together another excellent season in that department. He’s averaged 40.8 rushing yards per game and racked up six touchdowns in his first eight contests.

The more significant development has been his improvement as a passer. He’s on pace for career bests in virtually every category across the board, including yards per game (255.3), touchdown rate (5.0%), and adjusted yards per attempt (9.2). Add it all up, and Hurts has averaged 24.54 fantasy points per game, putting him behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes at the position.

Hurts is set up for another big passing game in Week 10. The Commanders have had a stout run defense this season, ranking second in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, but they’ve been exploitable through the air. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and Hurts owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.8 on DraftKings.

Hurts unsurprisingly owns the top projections in THE BLITZ by a pretty sizable margin. His median projection ranks first on the slate by nearly eight points, while his ceiling projection leads the way by more than 13. He also ranks first in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, so he’s tough to avoid on this slate.

The Eagles acquired A.J. Brown in the offseason, and he’s been fantastic as the team’s top receiver. He’s racked up a 30.1% target market share and 42.6% of the team’s air yards, both of which rank in the top seven in the NFL. Brown has also scored at least one touchdown in three straight games, and he racked up three scores in his 42.6-DraftKings point outburst vs. the Steelers in Week 8.

Brown should have another strong showing vs. the Commanders. They’ve been subpar against No. 1 receivers this season, and Pro Football Focus gives him a sizable advantage over the Commanders’ cornerbacks. Their top two corners – Kyle Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste – both rank outside the top 74 at the position in terms of PFF grade. Overall, the Eagles’ receivers lead the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0.