NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Jan. 2): Target Joe Burrow as Home Dog?

NFL Week 17 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as one-point road favorites, while the total sits at 49.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The last Monday Night Football matchup of the year should be a good one. It features two of the best teams in football, with the Bills ranking first in Football Outsiders DVOA and the Bengals ranking seventh. Both squads have already punched their tickets to the playoffs, but they’re still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Bills are currently in control of their own destiny, but the Bengals could overtake them with a win and some help.

Both of these squads are built around dynamic young quarterbacks. Josh Allen has put together another fantastic campaign for the Bills and fantasy players alike. He’s averaged just under 26 fantasy points per game, which trails only Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts at the position.

Allen is one of the few quarterbacks in football that is extremely dangerous with his arm and his legs. He’s racked up more than 4,000 passing yards and 32 passing touchdowns this season, and he’s added 746 yards and seven scores on the ground. Add it all up, and Allen has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games this season.

The Bengals’ defense has been improved this season, but they’re still not a unit that you need to fear. They rank 14th in defensive DVOA, and Allen is as matchup-proof as it gets. He’s also posted some interesting home/road splits for his career, with Allen averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.18 outside of Buffalo (per the Trends tool). He’s averaged 27.96 DraftKings points when on the road this season, so he’s one of the few quarterbacks who tends to perform better away from his home turf.