Week 13 finishes with an AFC showdown between the Bengals and Jaguars at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Jaguars are listed as 10-point home favorites, while the total sits at 40 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Trevor Lawrence checks in as the most expensive player on tonight’s showdown slate. Lawrence failed to flash a ceiling through 10 weeks and then rattled off 32.18 and 28.56 DraftKings points in the last two games.
His scores were certainly buoyed by rushing touchdowns, as he had two against Tennessee and one against Houston. If you remove the rushing scores, he would’ve totaled 20.18 and 22.56 DraftKings points. Those are his only three rushing touchdowns on the year, leading me to believe they’re more outliers as opposed to the new norm.
He’s the safest bet for overall points tonight, and Cincinnati has been getting shredded by opposing quarterbacks.
Travis Etienne Jr. follows, and he’s currently questionable with a rib injury. I’ve talked about his scoring being reliant on touchdowns, and that’s remained true as of late. He hasn’t found the end zone in each of the last three games, posting 6.4, 8.9, and 12.6 DraftKings points.
However, this is a spot where we can expect efficiency, as Cincinnati has allowed the third-most yards per carry and second-highest explosive run rate.
Ja’Marr Chase sees a season-low Showdown price tag, as the switch from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning was unsurprisingly detrimental.
He caught four of six targets for 81 yards last week and gets a matchup with the Jags who have allowed production to boundary receivers. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most yards per target to perimeter receivers this year, and Chase runs over 80% of his routes on the outside.
Calvin Ridley jumps off the page to me tonight from a tournament perspective. He’s priced right next to Chase but projects worse. Christian Kirk and Browning are priced cheaper and project similarly.
Ridley has a strong red zone and end zone role, and the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most yards per target to outside receivers. He’s my favorite Captain option in tournaments.
Jake Browning finishes the stud section, coming off a middling performance in Cincinnati’s loss to the Steelers. He totaled 10.72 DraftKings points in Week 11 when he came in for Burrow, showing some upside on the ground with 40 rushing yards. He posted 12.98 DraftKings points in last week’s loss to a tough Pittsburgh defense.
He completed over 70% of his passes and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving me some interest in Browning at his cheap price tag.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Christian Kirk leads the mid-range and has seen a dip in production as of late. Since Zay Jones returned in Week 11, Kirk has caught seven of 13 targets for 137 yards. Despite missing time, Jones has more end-zone targets this year than Kirk. Since Week 7, Kirk has been massively out-targeted by Ridley in the end zone and red zone.
Kirk has done great against man coverage though, and Jacksonville runs man coverage at the tenth-highest rate in the league. I’m siding with Ridley, as I’m expecting him to be lower-owned. But it’s a great spot for both.
Zay Jones comes in far cheaper and has a 13% target share and a healthy 11.7-yard aDOT. I don’t have too much interest here in cash games and more optimal formats, but he’s certainly viable in tournaments.
Tee Higgins returns for the first time since Week 9. Higgins had his second-best game of the season against Buffalo in Week 9, catching eight of nine targets for 110 yards. He exploded in Week 2 and Week 9 but was held in check in the other four games.
I’m not sure what to expect, as there’s no sample size of Higgins in the league without Burrow. I’m likely going to take a wait-and-see approach here and avoid him tonight.
Joe Mixon gets a tough draw tonight as a 10-point road underdog against a Jacksonville defense allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry. Jacksonville has given up some production through the air to running backs, and Mixon has seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks.
Did Evan Engram score a touchdown yet? No? Okay, I’m back to sing his praises, tell you how rock solid his role is, and that a trip to the end zone will unlock his ceiling.
I look to DraftKings points per game without touchdowns to dig deeper into a player’s role, and Engram is averaging a healthy 10.5. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, giving even more reason for optimism.
Tyler Boyd has had minimal success the past two weeks without Burrow, catching six balls for 45 yards. With Tee Higgins returning, Boyd is too expensive.
D’Ernest Johnson is an interesting option tonight. With Etienne banged up, he may have more of a role. He had eight and nine opportunities in the past two games. With Jacksonville as such a large favorite, they could ease up on Etienne when they get out to a lead. His median projection is likely low, but the paths to upside are there.
Tanner Hudson ran the second-most routes of all Cincinnati tight ends last week but saw five targets. He’s too expensive, in my opinion, but worth noting.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Irv Smith Jr. ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Smith ran the most pass routes of the Bengals’ trio of tight ends, running 13, while Hudson and Sample ran 12 and 11 respectively. He’s the cheapest of the bunch and probably the cheapest viable option on the slate unless you’re truly punting with a 0 at the $200 priced players.
