NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Dec. 26): Justin Herbert is Back

NFL Week 16 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chargers are listed as four-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Following the injury to Jonathan Taylor, it’s hard to call anyone on the Colts a fantasy stud. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Chargers dominate the top of the pricing spectrum.

Austin Ekeler is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he’s had a phenomenal fantasy season. He entered Week 15 with the most PPR fantasy points at the running back position, and he ranks first in points per game as well. He provides an elite combination of pass-catching ability and touchdown-scoring prowess, which are the two easiest ways to rack up fantasy points. His 14 touchdowns are tied with Jamaal Williams for the top mark in football, while his 95 receptions rank sixth in the league. It’s easily the top mark among running backs, and he has a shot to beat Christian McCaffrey’s record of 116 catches by a running back in a single season.

However, it is worth noting that Ekeler’s role in the passing game has decreased slightly as the team’s receivers have gotten healthier. He averaged 10.8 targets per game from Week 6 through Week 12, but that figure has decreased to 5.7 over his past three contests. He had just three targets last week vs. the Titans, so it’s possible that his massive receiving role was due to necessity more than anything else. The Colts have struggled to defend running backs in the pass game this season, ranking just 27th in Football Outsiders DVOA, but expectations should be tempered.

Ultimately, Ekeler still stands out as one of the top fantasy options in this matchup, but he might not have quite as much upside as he displayed earlier this year.