Football on Christmas caps off with the game of the year to date between the 49ers and Ravens in San Francisco. The 49ers are listed as 6-point road favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
On most Showdown slates with the Ravens or 49ers, Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey end up as undoubtedly the top option. However, with them sharing the field on Saturday, it raises the question as to which one is the top priority.
From a pure projection standpoint, it’s McCaffrey. He continued his legendary season last week. He had 18 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown while catching all five of his targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns. He’s as matchup-proof as it comes, but it’s worth noting that this is a tough draw.
Baltimore has allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 8, surrendering the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs on the year.
Jackson has a similarly tough matchup, with San Francisco allowing the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, we’ve seen Lamar lean on his legs more in these big games, and the ceiling is nuclear, we just haven’t seen it in a while. I would like to get both him and McCaffrey, but my first click will be Jackson.
Deebo Samuel has had a nose for the end zone recently, with five touchdowns in the past three games. He has over 21 DraftKings points in four straight contests[, with 38.8 and 37 in Weeks 13 and 14.
Baltimore has been middling against receivers, but they run a lot of Cover-4 and Cover-6, which Samuel has done well against with over a 32% target rate per route run.
Samuel’s explosion has aided Brock Purdy‘s scores. He has over 25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It’ll be interesting to see how Purdy performs in this matchup, as most of his play this year has come while in a positive or neutral game script.
I prefer him to Samuel, but Jackson and McCaffrey are still the priority of the studs.
I usually prioritize Brandon AIyuk in matchups against very man-heavy defenses, which isn’t the case here. Baltimore mixes up their looks very often, catering their game plan to their opponent.
Aiyuk is not a top play, but he’s a solid leverage play in tournaments, as most people opt for the more expensive 49ers.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Keaton Mitchell’s injury opens up Gus Edwards to reclaim the lion’s share of carries in the Baltimore backfield. He had 16 carries for 58 yards and a score last week, with one catch for 11 yards.
San Francisco has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, but Arizona averaged over eight yards per carry last week, with San Francisco missing Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead. Armstead is out again, while Hargrave is questionable.
Edwards is interesting with the injuries on the 49ers defensive line. He’s still a touchdown-dependent option, but he’s interesting in tournaments.
George Kittle has fallen a little by the wayside with all of the fireworks from Samuel and McCaffrey as of late, with less than 11 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s a perfect Showdown target, as he can explode at any time. Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest yards per catch to tight ends and the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position.
My interest in Kittle is reserved for larger field tournaments.
Zay Flowers looks like he’s truly questionable, as he’s tending to a foot injury. Flowers has been boom-or-bust as of late, with just 1.7 DraftKings points last week after 20+ points in both Weeks 12 and 14.
I prefer Kittle to Flowers straight up, but it is close.
Isaiah Likely has been thriving as of late, with touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, totaling 19.3 and 18.0 DraftKings points. He’s run a route on over 85% of the dropbacks since Andrews got hurt and is a big part of the offense.
The matchup is worrisome, as San Francisco has allowed the fewest yards per target to opposing tight ends. I prefer the explosiveness of Flowers if picking one, but both are viable.
Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t been an every-down receiver for Baltimore, but he has a team-high 23% target rate per route run. He didn’t have much usage last week, but he saw ten targets two weeks ago in the shootout with Los Angeles.
He’s a strong option in Lamar stacks tonight.
Rashod Bateman hasn’t reached double-digit DraftKings points yet this year, but he’s an intriguing option tonight. He saw six targets last week and has had four or more targets in five of his last six games.
Justice Hill is somewhat intriguing behind Edwards, but I prefer other value plays.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Nelson Agholor ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Nelson Agholor has been running a route on over 50% of the dropbacks, and is extremely affordable.
