Football on Christmas continues with the Giants and Eagles The Eagles are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jalen Hurts unsurprisingly headlines the stud section, coming off of a 23.92-point performance against Seattle on Monday Night. Philly has now dropped three straight games, failing to top 20 points in all three games.
Hurts has still been fine in fantasy, with two 23.92-point performances. Even in poor passing performances, Hurts can still get there with how valuable his goal-line role is. The Giants’ defense has been shredded on the road, setting up Hurts as the top option on the slate.
A.J. Brown has been fed volume as of late, with 36 targets over his last three games. He couldn’t get much going against Seattle, catching five of ten targets for 56 yards. The Giants are a man-heavy, blitz-heavy defense.
Brown has a 45% target share against the blitz and a 49% target share against man coverage. Brown is my favorite option on the slate.
DeVonta Smith is dealing with a knee injury but doesn’t have an injury designation for Monday’s game. He caught five balls for 50 yards on Monday night, making it the seventh-straight game where he reached double-digit DraftKings points. However, he’s priced too close to Brown for me. Smith has just a 16.5% target rate per route run against man coverage.
Saquon Barkley leads the way for New York, coming off of a rough game against New Orleans. He handled just eleven touches in the blowout loss to New Orleans.
This matchup appears difficult on paper, but Philadelphia has been leaky as of late. They’ve allowed over 125 scrimmage yards to opposing backfields in five straight games.
D’Andre Swift suffers from Hurts’ goal-line prowess, as Swift has only four rushing touchdowns this year. New York has allowed the eleventh-most DraftKings points to opposing backs and the fourth-most yards per carry on the season. He’s a strong option on the showdown slate, but he’s not one of my first clicks.
Tommy DeVito had a rough outing against the Saints, completing less than 60% of his passes and averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt. Philadelphia has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but I’m not sure if DeVito has what it takes to make the Eagles pay.
I likely won’t be playing the chicken cutlet man on Monday.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Dallas Goedert saw a lot of volume last week, as Hurts targeted him nine times. He only caught four balls, going for 30 yards and having one carry for one yard.
New York has been middle-of-the-road against tight ends, but they did allow two touchdowns to Saints tight ends last week. Goedert hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling, with just two games over ten DraftKings points.
Darren Waller returned from his hamstring injury last week, catching four of six targets for 40 yards. He wasn’t completely taken off the leash, as he only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks.
However, he saw a 27% target rate per route run and will likely see a bump in routes this week. The Eagles have allowed the 11th-most yards per target to opposing tight ends, making Waller an intriguing option in the midrange.
Wan’Dale Robinson popped off in Week 14 but reverted to his usual performances last week. He caught all four of his targets for 25 yards, marking the fourth time in the past five games that he finished with less than seven DraftKings points.
Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt round out the Giants’ three-receiver sets, with Slayton seeing eight targets last week and Hyatt seeing three. Both are viable targets with big play potential against this Eagles’ secondary.
My same shpiel on Kenneth Gainwell still applies, as he doesn’t see enough volume to warrant him as a viable play.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Quez Watkins ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Quez Watkins remains very cheap with big play upside. He’s exactly the guy you want for this type of salary, as he sees targets deep down the field and can pay off his tag with one catch.
