NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Dec. 19): Can You Trust Aaron Jones?

NFL Week 15 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Packers are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total sits at 39.5 points.

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NFL DFS Stud Picks

The Packers’ offense has been far from impressive this year, but they’re the clear preferred target in this contest. The Rams have been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball, losing Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Matthew Stafford in recent weeks. They did manage to shock the Raiders in an upset on Thursday Night Football last week, but not much should be expected of them at this point.

The Packers’ offense has quietly shown some signs of improvement of late. They’ve racked up at least 28 points in three of their past four games, and they have at least 31 points in two of them.

Aaron Jones has been their best player this season, but he was impacted by a shin injury in their last game. He was limited to just 38% of the snaps and 29% of the rushing attempts, resulting in just 10.0 DraftKings points.

The Packers were on a bye last week, but Jones’ health remains in question. He got in two limited practices to end the week, so while he should be in the lineup, he may be limited again.

That’s unfortunate since Jones has historically crushed as a large home favorite. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.38 in 20 previous games as a home favorite of at least a touchdown, including a Plus/Minus of +8.49 in four previous occurrences this season (per the Trends tool). Even in a down year for the Packers’ offense, Jones has still absolutely crushed in this split.

Ultimately, Jones is a high-risk, high-reward option in this spot. He has an excellent ceiling if he handles his usual workload, but he also has more bust potential than usual.