NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Dec. 12): All In on Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL Week 14 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Patriots are listed as two-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

DeAndre Hopkins has turned in another big season for the Cardinals. He’s appeared in just six games, but he’s racked up 49 catches, 574 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s scored at least 18.1 DraftKings points in all but one contest, and he ranks sixth at the position in PPR points per game.

Hopkins’ underlying metrics are equally impressive. His 30.5% target market share is the fifth-highest mark in the league, while his 45.8% air yards share ranks second. He’s had at least 12 targets in four of his six games, so he’s typically one of the busiest receivers in the league.

However, his first five games all came with Marquise Brown sidelined, but Brown returned to the lineup in Week 12. Hopkins’ target share dipped to just 19% in that outing, and he was targeted on just 17% of his routes run. Hopkins managed to salvage his fantasy stock with a touchdown, but he’s going to face much stiffer competition for targets moving forward. It would not be a huge shock if his numbers took a hit, and Hopkins doesn’t grade out particularly well vs. the Patriots in THE BLITZ.

It has been a bit of a disappointing season for Kyler Murray. He was rewarded with a big contract extension this offseason, but he has posted the worst touchdown rate and adjusted yards per attempt of his career.

That said, Murray has started to heat up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s had at least 26.24 DraftKings points in two of them. Murray has had to lean on a poor group of pass catchers for most of the year, but with Hopkins and Brown both in the lineup, he’s poised for some progression as a passer. Murray also remains a capable runner, averaging 41.5 yards per game with three total touchdowns.

The Patriots represent a tough matchup on paper, ranking third in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. However, their numbers are inflated due to some easy matchups against poor quarterbacks. They’ve been shredded for 59 points over the past two weeks, so Murray can find success in this matchup.