It all comes down to this. The final game of the 2024-25 NFL regular season should be a good one, with the Detroit Lions hosting the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at a massive 56.5 points.
The stakes for these squads couldn’t be much higher. The winner will secure the NFC North crown, the No. 1 seed in the conference, and a much-needed first-round bye in the playoffs. The loser will drop down to the No. 5 seed, setting up a first-round road contest against either the Rams or Buccaneers. That gives both squads plenty of incentive to win on Sunday night.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Vikings-Lions.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Both of these teams are capable of doing some damage offensively, which is reflected in their DFS salaries. There are a number of high-priced options to choose from, including three players priced above $10,000 on DraftKings.
That starts with Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has been the No. 2 running back in PPR points per game this season, which is pretty remarkable considering his workload. For most of the year, Gibbs has operated as part of a committee backfield alongside David Montgomery. He has just a 55% snap share and 47% carry share for the year, which is not what you’d expect for the No. 2 running back in fantasy.
Gibbs has made up for it in a few different ways. For starters, he’s one of the best touchdown-scorers in football. He’s found the paint 16 times this season, and he’s scored at least once in all but four games. Gibbs is also dynamic with the ball in his hands, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, and he’s adept at catching passes out of the backfield. He has a 12% target share for the year, which is the 10th-best mark at the position.
With Gibbs dominating as part of a committee, it’s scary to think about what he can do with the backfield to himself. Montgomery went down with an injury in Week 16, and Gibbs has seen a bump in opportunities over his past two games. He’s played on 61% of the snaps and handled 55% of the carries, including all of the goal-line work. His target share has also crept up to 14%, so while he’s still not operating like a true bell-cow, he’s going to get more opportunities with Montgomery out of the picture.
The only downside with Gibbs is the matchup. The Vikings have been very good against opposing running backs this season, giving Gibbs an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.6. That’s one of the worst marks on the slate.
However, Gibbs has already torched this defense once this season, racking up 35.0 DraftKings points in their first matchup. There’s no reason not to trust him on this slate, and he grades out as one of the strongest options in our NFL Models.
Justin Jefferson leads the way for the Vikings, and he’s turned in another outstanding season at the receiver position. He enters this week with 100 catches, 1,479 yards, and 10 touchdowns, and only Ja’Marr Chase has averaged more PPR points per game at receiver.
Jefferson has done some of his best work recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 35.2 DraftKings points in two of them. His worst performance came last week vs. the Packers, and he still managed 11 targets, eight receptions, and 92 yards. Jefferson has racked up 31% target share and 39% air yards share for the year, so he’s among the busiest receivers in football.
Jefferson has the potential to feast on an extremely shorthanded Lions’ defense. They have a host of players currently on IR, and it has had a massive impact on their production. They’re dead last in pass defense EPA since Week 13, and they’ve allowed at least 31 points in three of their past four games.
Stopping Jefferson is hard enough at full strength, especially with the other options that the Vikings have available in the passing game. With the Lions’ current injury issues, it might be impossible. His median projection is slightly lower than Gibbs’, but the two players are very comparable from a ceiling standpoint.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the other stud receiver in this matchup. He’s been the Lions’ clear top target this season, racking up a 28% target share. However, the Lions were one of the most run-heavy teams in football to start the year. They had a -8% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) through the first 10 weeks, relying on their strong defense and running game to win contests.
With their defense ailing, the Lions have had to take to the air more over the past few weeks. That has had a nice impact on St. Brown. He’s had at least eight targets in three straight games, and he’s had 10+ in two of them. The Lions could have to lean on their passing attack once again this week, making St. Brown another appealing target.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Both quarterbacks are currently priced in the midrange tier, but they could very easily be considered studs. Jared Goff is seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, while Sam Darnold just barely trails in eighth.
Let’s start with Goff. He was playing more like a “game manager” to start the year, attempting more than 30 passes in just one of his first 10 outings. That has changed over the second half of the year, with Goff averaging 39.3 attempts over his past six games.
Unsurprisingly, that’s had a big impact on his fantasy numbers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 28.34 DraftKings points in three straight. With the Lions’ defense hemorrhaging points, Goff and the offense have been forced to keep up.
Goff will also be in his preferred split on Sunday night. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.49 as a home favorite, and that figure increases to +3.47 as a member of the Lions (per the Trends tool). He’ll have to navigate a tough matchup, but Goff checks a lot of the other boxes for DFS purposes.
Darnold has had a magical year for the Vikings, and he’s been extremely consistent for fantasy. He’s failed to return value in just four of 16 games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven.
He’s also displayed some upside. Darnold has scored at least 22.94 DraftKings points in three of his past four, including 37.58 DraftKings points vs. the Falcons. The Lions have been torched by opposing quarterbacks of late, so Darnold should be able to have a field day in this matchup. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s tied with Goff for the top ceiling projection.
Aaron Jones has been the Vikings’ top running back for most of the year, playing on 64% of the team’s snaps and handling 60% of their rushing attempts. His numbers were slightly down last week, but there’s no reason to expect that to continue moving forward.
Jones hasn’t been quite as efficient as he was in his prime, which is not a huge surprise for a 30-year-old running back. However, he’s still quite good. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per attempt for the year, and he’s still a viable threat as a pass-catcher. He has five targets in back-to-back outings, and he’s been targeted on at least 20% of his routes run in both contests.
The Lions have been quite as bad against the run as they have been against the pass recently, but it still stands out as a solid matchup. Jones doesn’t have the same upside as the players mentioned previously, but he still has a chance to return value.
Jameson Williams has taken a step forward in his third professional season. His 18% target share for the year doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s been the Lions’ clear big play threat in the passing game. His average depth of target (aDOT) checks in at 12.0 yards, which is nearly four yards further downfield than St. Brown.
Williams’ target share has been on the rise recently, posting a mark of at least 20% in five of his past six games. He’s scored a touchdown in three straight games, including a 41-yard score last week. He’s always a threat for a big play, and his increased target share gives him a bit more safety than he did at the start of the year.
Jordan Addison is the clear No. 2 in the Vikings’ passing attack, but he’s one of the best No. 2s in the league. He doesn’t have the same consistency as Jefferson, but his ceiling is arguably just as high. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his past six games, but he’s gone for at least 33.2 DraftKings points in two of them.
Since Week 11, Addison has commanded a 26% target share. He’s also had a 35% air yards share over that time frame, which actually ranks first on the team. Ultimately, he provides similar big-play upside to Williams in this price range, but he draws a far better matchup and has a safer target floor. That makes him the clear preferred target out of the two.
Addison is also an ideal stacking partner for Darnold, with the two players having a massive +0.80 correlation. His best games tend to come in Darnold’s best outings, making his production even more positively correlated with his quarterback than Jefferson.
The two tight ends round out this price range. Sam LaPorta took the league by storm as a rookie, but he was a massive disappointment to start his sophomore campaign. Fortunately, he’s managed to turn things around of late. His target share is up to 20% from Week 8 on, which is the 11th-highest mark at tight end over that time frame.
Fortunately, LaPorta plays for one of the most explosive offenses in football. He’s been a huge part of their offense around the goal line, racking up 35% of their end zone targets since Week 8. He’s scored at least once in three of his past five outings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight. Ultimately, he’s a solid source of value at his current salary.
T.J. Hockenson is the Vikings’ top tight end. He missed the early part of the year while recovering from injury, but he’s picked up basically right where he left off last season. He’s still not playing on 100% of the snaps, but he’s been targeted on roughly 19% of his routes run.
That’s not an elite figure, but it’s good enough for this price range. There’s also a chance that Hockenson plays a bit more in such an important contest, giving him a bit of hidden upside.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. This game is expected to be a bit higher scoring, so the kickers are grading out better than the defenses.
- Jalen Nailor ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Nailor has been the Vikings’ No. 3 receiver all year, and his route participation typically sits between 60 and 70%. He’s a bit inconsistent, but he did have a 13% target share last week. That’s enough to make him intriguing vs. the Lions.
- Tim Patrick ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Patrick is the Lions’ No. 3 receiver, though his production is trending in the wrong direction. Even with the Lions throwing the ball more of late, Patrick has target shares of 3% and 0% in his past two contests.
- Cam Akers ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Akers will serve as Jones’ primary backup, and he mixes in on all situations. That includes short-yardage and pass-catching scenarios.
- Craig Reynolds ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Reynolds stepped into the No. 2 role in the Lions’ backfield sans Montgomery last week, and he played on 35% of the team’s snaps. It’s possible he has a real role for the team moving forward, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if Gibbs handles a larger workload in a must-win game.
- Josh Oliver ($1,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Oliver is the Vikings No. 2 TE, but his role has been virtually non-existent of late. He has just a 2% target share over his past four games.
- Kalif Raymond ($200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Raymond is an interesting punt play at just $200. He’s been out of the lineup since Week 12, but he’s been activated from IR for Week 18. He was a legit piece of the offense to start the year, posting a 36% route participation, so he should see a few opportunities vs. the Vikings. He shouldn’t command much ownership, and he helps you get to multiple high-priced players on this slate.
