NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (January 12) for Commanders vs. Buccaneers Wild Card Sunday Night Football

We have three more postseason contests to choose from Sunday, including a nightcap between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders. The Bucs are currently listed as 3.0-point home favorites, while the total sits at 50.5.

On paper, this should be a really fun game. Both of these teams combine excellent offenses with inconsistent defenses, and the total is the highest in the Wild Card round. There should be plenty of points scored, making it an intriguing contest for fantasy purposes.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Commanders-Bucs.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

For the second straight season, a rookie QB has taken the NFL by storm. C.J. Stroud checked that box last year – and picked up his second postseason win Saturday – and Jayden Daniels has assumed the mantle in 2024.

Like Stroud, Daniels was also the No. 2 pick in the draft and the second quarterback selected. However, that’s really where the similarities end. Daniels is much more of a dual-threat option, which propelled him to a big fantasy season as a rookie. He averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per game at the position, making him one of the best bargains in drafts last offseason.

If anything, that undersells how good he was as a rookie. His numbers took a slight dip in the middle of the year while he dealt with a rib injury, but he’s routinely been one of the best players in fantasy when healthy. He ended the season on a major high note, racking up at least 28.64 DraftKings points in four of his final five full contests. Overall, he posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but three games that he started and finished this season.

Daniels will take the field as an underdog Sunday, but he has done some of his best work in that split this season. He’s averaged 25.87 DraftKings points in his road outings, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.55 (per the Trends tool). Quarterbacks have a pretty poor track record in their playoff debuts, but Daniels has been defying the odds all season.

The matchup vs. the Buccaneers is also excellent. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, so there are plenty of reasons to believe in him in this spot. He leads the slate in most of the key projections, including projected ceiling and Plus/Minus.

Mike Evans is the most expensive option for the Buccaneers, and he managed to keep his impressive 1,000-yard streak alive in the final week of the regular season. He racked up 89 yards vs. the Saints, bringing him to 1,004 yards for the year. He’s now had at least 1,000 yards in all 11 professional seasons, which is easily the longest streak in history. Only Jerry Rice has more 1,000-yard campaigns, and he played well into his 40s.

Since returning from an injury in Week 12, Evans has operated as the clear No. 1 target in this passing attack. He’s racked up a 30% target share and 43% air-yards share over that stretch, and he’s turned in some big fantasy performances. He’s had at least 28.8 DraftKings points in three of his past six games, though he has posted a negative Plus/Minus in his other three. That gives him a pretty wide range of outcomes for a player in this price range.

While his floor may not be ideal for a $10,800 player, it’s not particularly relevant for DFS tournaments. His upside is what matters more, and Evans has that in spades. The Commanders haven’t been an ideal matchup for receivers this season, as they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to the position, but Evans has the top ceiling projection among non-QBs on this slate.

Bucky Irving has also officially entered stud territory. He’s spent most of the year in a committee with Rachaad White at running back, but he has seemingly seized a full-time job heading into the playoffs. In a must-win game in Week 18, the Bucs leaned heavily on their rookie running back, with Irving out-carrying White 19-0. The gap wasn’t quite as stark in Week 17, but Irving still had 20 carries to White’s six.

If Irving is going to be the Bucs’ featured back in the playoffs, he has the potential to do significant damage. He’s been highly efficient on the ground this season, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, and he’s also a capable pass catcher out of the backfield. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run for the year, and he’s posted a 13% target share in back-to-back games.

Ultimately, Irving checks all the boxes that you’re looking for in a fantasy running back. The Commanders have also been slightly more generous with fantasy points to opposing running backs than they have to wide receivers, so don’t let the elevated price tag scare you off Irving on Sunday night.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Baker Mayfield’s breakout may have felt a bit fluky last season, but he’s proven he belongs in 2024. He racked up 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, joining Tom Brady as the only players to throw for at least 40 TDs in a Buccaneers uniform. All that production led to plenty of fantasy success, with Mayfield actually averaging more fantasy points per game than Daniels for the year (22.5 vs. 21.5).

Mayfield might not have the same ceiling as Daniels due to his limitations as a runner, but he’s clearly underpriced at $9,800. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but three games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.22 overall. Mayfield has done some of his best work in home games, scoring at least 22.0 DraftKings points in seven of nine outings, and he’s gone for at least 27.3 DraftKings points in five of them. The Commanders are merely middle of the road in terms of pass defense EPA, so it’s hard to imagine them slowing him down too much.

Terry McLaurin has been making the most out of his situation all season. The Commanders aren’t a particularly pass-heavy team, ranking 25th in the league with 30.9 attempts per game. However, when they do take to the air, McLaurin is a frequent target. He’s racked up 24% of their targets and 40% of their air yards, and he’s seen 37% of their end-zone looks.

Even though his target share might not be ideal, he’s still been a remarkably consistent producer for most of the season. He’s finished as a top-20 scorer at receiver in 13 of his past 15 games, and he’s finished inside the top-15 in five of his final six outings. He’s had at least 17.0 DraftKings points in all five contests, and he’s cracked 20 DraftKings points four times.

McLaurin is a logical target against an exploitable Bucs secondary. They’ve allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers this season, and their secondary is a bit banged up at the moment. Jamel Dean is expected to play through a questionable designation, but Troy Hill will not be activated from IR despite practicing for most of the week.

Brian Robinson has provided some value at times this season for the Commanders, but this does not seem like an ideal spot for him. For starters, the Commanders are underdogs, which means he might not play as many snaps as usual. He doesn’t typically play in passing situations, and the Commanders could face a handful of them if they fall behind. That’s particularly true with Austin Ekeler rejoining the rotation.

The Buccaneers have also been a bit better against the run than the pass this season, so there are a bunch of factors working against him Sunday. He stands out as overpriced, resulting in the second-worst projected Plus/Minus in this tier.

Jalen McMillan has had a bit of a breakout for the Buccaneers of late. Since Week 14, he’s posted a 20% target share and 29% air-yards share, and he’s finished as a top-17 fantasy receiver in all five games.

However, his production stems primarily from touchdowns. He’s scored at least once in all five of those contests, and he’s had multiple scores in two of them. He’s yet to have more than five catches or 75 yards in a game this season.

That makes him a bit of a risky proposition at an elevated price tag. If he doesn’t find the end zone vs. the Commanders, there’s a good chance he fails to pay off his current salary. He’s still worth considering in Bucs’ stacks, as he has a +0.58 correlation with Mayfield and a +0.46 correlation with Evans, but he’s an interesting fade candidate otherwise.

The Commanders have had a rotating cast of characters at WR2 this season, and injuries have forced Olamide Zaccheaus into that role of late. He’s ultimately been able to take advantage. He has a 74% route participation over his past three contests, and he’s responded with a 22% target share.

That number doesn’t jump off the page, but Zaccheaus has put together two big performances in his past three outings. Like McMillan, much of that production stems from touchdowns, but he did have eight catches and 85 yards against the Falcons in Week 17. He might be a smidge overpriced at $6,800 on DraftKings, but he’s a nice value at just $9,500 on FanDuel.

Zach Ertz may be on the backside of his career, but he’s gotten the job done for the Commanders this season. He very rarely pops off for a huge performance, but he’s been a consistent source of production at tight end. He’s second on the team with an 18% target share for the year, and he’s had at least 12.5 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games. Ultimately, he’s a viable target at his current price tag.

Cade Otton is the Buccaneers’ starting tight end, and he’s been on the field more than most at the position this season. He has an 87% route participation for the year, which trails only Trey McBride and Travis Kelce at tight end.

That said, there are some factors working against Otton. For starters, he might not be 100% healthy. He’s going to return to the lineup after missing the past three games, but there’s no guarantee he will jump right back into his usual role. Even when Otton has been healthy of late, he hasn’t been particularly involved in the passing attack. The return of Evans and the emergence of McMillan has left him as a bit of an afterthought, making him a risky option vs. the Commanders.

Getting White at $5,000 would’ve been an absolute steal just a few weeks ago, but he’s very tough to click at the moment. He’s still playing on passing downs, as he was on the field for 88% of the long-yardage situations in Week 18, but he finished that game with zero carries and targets. Even Sean Tucker has been more involved than him recently in the Bucs backfield, so he’s simply impossible to trust at the moment.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Zane Gonzalez stands out as the most undervalued of the group using Sim Labs, with his projected ownership checking in roughly 2% lower than his optimal lineup rate.
• Austin Ekeler ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – While the potential game script could hurt Robinson, it has the potential to benefit Ekeler. He’s handled the majority of pass-catching responsibilities out of the team’s backfield, and he could lead the Commanders’ RBs in snaps on Sunday night. He stands out as underpriced across the industry.
• Dyami Brown ($3,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – The injury to Brown allowed Zaccheaus to grab the No. 2 job in the Commanders’ receiving corps, and Brown fell behind him in the pecking order in his return in Week 18. He was on the field for just 38% of the team’s passing plays, though he was targeted on a healthy 27% of his routes run. It’s possible that Brown picks up a few additional snaps at Zaccheaus’ expense moving forward.
• Sterling Shepard ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Shepard has served as the Buccaneers’ slot receiver this season, but that role hasn’t paid much dividends. He has a target share of just 10% for the year, and he’s been at 7% or fewer in three straight games.
• Jamison Crowder ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Crowder is officially questionable for Sunday night, and he looks like the team’s WR4 with Brown back in the fold.
• Sean Tucker ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Tucker has had more carries than White in back-to-back games, so he could be Irving’s primary backup on this slate. That might not lead to a ton of value, but he should at least see a few opportunities.