The NFL playoffs are finally here! There are two games to choose from on Saturday, culminating with a primetime showdown between division rivals. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the Ravens listed as 9.5-point home favorites. The total sits at 43.5 points.
As with all divisional playoff matchups, this will be the third meeting of the year between these squads. They split the first two, with each winning on their home field. The Ravens smashed the Steelers when these two teams met previously in Baltimore, picking up a 17-point victory in Week 16.
This will be the fifth playoff matchup between these two teams, with the Steelers currently holding a 3-1 edge. Can the Ravens start to cut into that deficit, or will the Steelers pull off an upset? Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Saturday night.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Ravens will receive most of the attention on this slate. They had one of the top offenses in football this season, leading the league in yards per game while finishing third in points. They were also first in EPA per play, so they’re arguably the best offensive team in the league.
Derrick Henry is at the top of the pricing spectrum for this contest, and he’s had a phenomenal season. He looked completely rejuvenated after a couple of down years to finish his tenure with the Titans, racking up 1,921 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per attempt. He also found the paint 18 times, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs in total touchdowns.
Henry’s consistency as a touchdown scorer is his best fantasy attribute. He scored at least once in each of his first 11 games this season before hitting a four-game dry spell. However, he rebounded to find the endzone three times over his final two games. Henry is the clear top option for the team around the goal line, and his 18 carries from inside the five-yard line ranked fourth among running backs for the year.
The only real downside with Henry’s profile is that he doesn’t bring a ton to the table as a pass-catcher. He has just a 5% target share for the year, and he cedes snaps on passing downs to Justice Hill. That makes him a bit less valuable in PPR formats, and it hurts his production in games where the team is trailing.
Fortunately, that’s not expected to be the case on Saturday. The Ravens are massive favorites, and Henry has historically delivered huge production in that split. In 17 games where favored by at least a touchdown, Henry has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.99 (per the Trends tool). He gouged the Steelers for 162 yards on 24 carries in a similar situation in their last meeting, so he’s tough to ignore on Saturday.
Still, a $12,200 price tag isn’t the most appealing number. It’s his highest price tag of the entire season, and the Steelers aren’t the best matchup on paper. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, giving Henry an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.9. He still has plenty of upside, but he’s tough to justify as the most expensive player on the slate.
That’s particularly true with Lamar Jackson playing in the same backfield. Jackson was recently named First-Team All-Pro, and he turned in arguably his most impressive season to date. He finished with 41 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions, and he led the league with a massive 10.15 adjusted yards per attempt. Of course, Jackson also provided his usual excellence as a runner as well, adding 915 yards and four scores on the ground. Add it all up, and Jackson was the top-scoring player in fantasy by a pretty wide margin.
It’s hard to justify Jackson not being the most expensive option every single time he takes the field. He leads the slate in median projection, and he clears the field in ceiling projection by nearly 10 points.
The one caveat is that Jackson did not have his best performances when matched up with Pittsburgh this year. He had just 15.88 points in their first matchup – and posted a negative Plus/Minus for just the second time all year – and he only got to 21.48 in the rematch.
However, the matchup stands out as slightly better on paper for Jackson than it does for Henry. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3, which is the top mark on the slate. Jackson is going to command massive ownership, but he’s a really difficult fade.
George Pickens is the lone Steeler priced in the stud tier. He’s up to $10,200, and it’s tough to get too excited about him at that number. He’s put together some solid performances since Russell Wilson took over at QB, but he finished the year by posting a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games.
While Pickens might be a bit overpriced, he’s still the clear leader in the Steelers’ passing attack. He has a 26% target share and 45% air yards share for the year, which are true alpha numbers. Pickens missed the team’s last outing vs. the Ravens, but he racked up 12 targets, eight receptions, and 89 yards in the first.
The matchup is a bit of a mixed bag. The Ravens started the year by getting exploited on the defensive end, especially through the air. They allowed passing yards in bunches, with their subpar defense and elite offense providing a very favorable game environment for opposing passing attacks. However, from Week 11 on, the Ravens were the top team in the league in terms of pass defense EPA by a wide margin. The Steelers managed just 181 and 198 passing yards in their two meetings with the Ravens, so their passing attack might not have as much upside as you think.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Speaking of Wilson, he headlines the midrange tier at $9,400. Wilson played pretty well for the Steelers all things considered, but that didn’t translate to a bunch of fantasy production. Outside of one spike week vs. the Bengals, Wilson scored 19.1 DraftKings points or fewer in nine of his past 10 games. He had less than 15 DraftKings points in five of them, so he had a pretty low floor and ceiling overall.
That said, Wilson is still a quarterback, and he’s priced pretty reasonably on this slate. Even with the Ravens’ defense taking massive strides down the stretch, they still allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs for the year.
The potential game script could also lead to a lot of opportunities for Wilson. He’s historically fared pretty well as a big underdog, averaging 19.44 DraftKings points and a +1.31 Plus/Minus when getting more than a touchdown. Ultimately, there’s enough here to make him worth considering.
How you choose to handle the Steelers’ backfield could be a determining factor on this slate. Najee Harris has been their clear top option for most of the season, but Jaylen Warren is the more expensive option on Saturday.
That doesn’t make a ton of sense on paper, but it might be warranted in this matchup. Warren is the superior pass-catching back, and he tends to play more in trailing situations. We saw that the last time these two teams met, with Warren playing on 67% of the team’s snaps and Harris lagging way behind at 28%. Warren ultimately finished with 14.2 DraftKings points in that matchup, while Harris had just 4.2.
That makes telling a consistent story pretty vital with your lineup construction. If you’re going to build around a comfortable Ravens’ win, Warren stands out as the top target. If you think this game is going to be a bit more competitive, Harris is the target. Of course, playing neither is also viable, especially with the Ravens faring well against the run all season.
The big news for Baltimore on this slate is the absence of Zay Flowers. He’s been their clear top option in the passing game this season, leading the team with a 26% target share. His absence is going to open up a bunch of opportunities for the rest of the pass-catchers on the roster.
Rashod Bateman stands out as the most likely beneficiary. Bateman has been a strong No. 2 receiver for the Ravens all year, and he saw a nice bump in opportunities after Flowers exited in Week 18. He posted a 24% target share, which was his third-highest mark of the season.
Bateman was already the team’s top big-play threat in the passing attack, so adding a few more targets to his workload gives him an excellent ceiling. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively on DraftKings – he was just $6,400 in his last outing – but he’s capable of posting a big performance. On FanDuel, Bateman is a steal at just $10,000, and his 85% Bargain Rating is the second-best mark on the slate.
Bateman also has a correlation of +0.53 with Jackson, making him the star quarterback’s most correlated partner. That makes him an ideal stacking partner.
Mark Andrews should also benefit. Andrews hasn’t had as large of a role as we’ve seen in previous seasons, finishing with just a 16% target share. He’s also been on the field for just 66% of the team’s pass plays, with Isaiah Likely taking on a larger role in his third season.
However, Andrews’ role did progress as the year went on, and he made up for his deficiencies by scoring touchdowns in bunches. He scored in six straight games to close out the season, and he unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each.
Like Bateman, if Andrews can pick up a few additional targets and snaps with Flowers out of the picture, it gives him a much safer floor than usual.
Pat Freiermuth is the Steelers’ tight end, and he also finished the season on a high note. He earned 19 targets over his final two outings despite Pickens being back in the lineup for both. He racked up a season-high 22.5 DraftKings points in his final game of the year, though that came against an exploitable Bengals’ defense.
This week’s matchup will be significantly tougher, but Freiermuth stands out as pretty severely underpriced for his recent production. He has a 23% target share from Week 13 on, and he ranks third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Ravens defense is a bit more expensive than usual at $5,800, but they’re grading out as the best source of leverage using Sim Labs.
- Calvin Austin ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Austin saw a big spike in opportunities while Pickens was sidelined with an injury, but his role has dwindled in recent weeks. Still, he’s been targeted on 15% of his routes run for the year, and he’s maintained a strong route participation even with Pickens back in the fold.
- Isaiah Likely ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – With Flowers out of the picture, the Ravens could lean on even more two-TE sets than usual. Andrews and Likely might be the team’s top two pass-catchers, making Likely a strong value at his current salary across the industry. He saw a 69% route participation in Week 18 with Flowers limited, and he racked up a healthy 17% target share.
- Justice Hill ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Hill is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past two games, and he should play on passing downs for the Ravens. That role might not have a ton of value in a game that they’re expected to play from in front, but he’s cheaper than usual and has popped for some big games this season.
- Nelson Agholor ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Agholor is another player who could see a bump in snaps sans Flowers. He’s missed three straight games for Baltimore – two with a concussion, one as a healthy scratch – but he’s likely the next man up at the position.
- Mike Williams ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Williams has struggled to find consistent snaps since being acquired by the Steelers before the trade deadline. However, he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to potentially return value. He’s a big-play threat, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he played a bit more in the postseason.
- Van Jefferson ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Jefferson has seen far more routes as the Steelers’ WR3 this season, but he simply doesn’t bring much to the table for fantasy purposes. He has just a 9% target share for the year.
- Tylan Wallace ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Wallace saw a huge uptick in routes after Flowers went down last week, but that was particularly due to Agholor being inactive. Still, he should serve as the team’s No. 3 receiver vs. the Steelers, giving him some appeal at a very cheap price tag.
