Can you feel it? The excitement of football season is officially in the air!
We still have about a month to go before the first regular season contest, but we can start to quench our thirst for football with the preseason. The Hall of Fame Game between the Bears and Texans takes place on Thursday, officially starting the exhibition season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, it can be a bit intimidating. It’s a completely different animal than the regular season, with lots of unfamiliar names and strategies.
Fortunately, there are a few trends we can lean on:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there – they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
Kickers have historically been the third-highest scoring group during the preseason, just slightly behind quarterbacks. Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein was the second-highest scorer during last year’s Hall of Fame game, so you’re going to want exposure to at least one of the four kickers or defenses. It’s extremely hard to imagine a scenario where none of those options makes it into the optimal lineup.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth chart in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Thursday’s slate.
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NFL DFS Core Picks
Kickers & Defenses
As I mentioned during the intro, don’t be shy about loading up on these guys in the preseason. I want to have at least one in all of my lineups, and I’d play as many as three. They’re some of the safest sources of points on the board, and their upside isn’t notably lower than the skill position players. Both of these teams have just one kicker – Cairo Santos for the Bears and Ka’imi Fairbairn for the Texans – so you don’t have to worry about them splitting the kicking duties.
The only real concern here is ownership. It’s no secret that defenses and kickers are good in the preseason, so they should be among the most popular options. That’s the big reason why I would limit my exposure to a max of three per lineup instead of opting for all four.
Tyson Bagent
Bagent made a couple of starts for the Bears when Justin Fields got hurt last season, and he didn’t look all that out of place. Being a future starter probably isn’t in the cards, but he can establish himself as a capable backup.
He should get the chance to prove that during the preseason. Head coach Matt Eberflus has already stated that the starters will not play during the Hall of Fame Game, which opens the door for Bagent to start and see a solid complement of snaps.
Brett Rypien and Austin Reed should also factor into the equation at quarterback, but I’d expect Bagent to lead the trio. The makes him the most valuable of the bunch.
Davis Mills
Like the Bears, the Texans are also carrying four quarterbacks on their roster at the moment. However, C.J. Stroud is not expected to play, and I could see Case Keenum getting the same treatment. Keenum is 36 years old and spent last year with the Texans, so he doesn’t really need a ton of seasoning in the preseason.
That makes Mills arguably the best play on the entire slate.
He led the Texans QBs in preseason snaps last year (77), and he played at least 24 snaps in all three contests. He didn’t make the most of his opportunities, completing just 55.6% of his passes for 82 yards per game, but the volume is still very enticing.
Dameon Pierce & Jawhar Jordan
Pierce is a little higher on the depth chart than I’d typically look for a running back, but there have been reports that he will play “extensively” on Thursday. Joe Mixon is locked into the starter role, while Dare Ogunbawale is a key special teamer and barely played in the preseason last year.
Pierce will be looking to bounce back after a massively disappointing 2023-24 campaign. He averaged just 2.9 yards per carry, eventually losing his job to Devin Singletary. Pierce struggled with the Texans’ switch to a zone-blocking scheme, but he has reportedly looked good in practice.
Jordan was a fifth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he is also expected to see a solid chunk of playing time on Thursday. He doesn’t check the athleticism boxes typically required for an NFL running back, but he was a productive player at Louisville, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He was particularly impressive as a senior despite splitting snaps with Isaac Guerendo, who also made it to the NFL.
Like Pierce, Jordan has received steady praise throughout training camp, so expect him to get a chance to compete for the backup job.
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NFL DFS Fliers
Demetric Felton
Ironically, Felton was a touchdown scorer in the Hall of Fame Game last year, albeit it for a different franchise. He was only added to the Bears roster on July 28, but that shouldn’t stop him from seeing a handful of snaps in this contest. Travis Homer and Ian Wheeler have both missed time recently, while Khalil Herbert is a potential cut candidate who isn’t expected to play much in the preseason.
Felton brings a fantasy-friendly skill set to the table, catching 20 of 25 targets in his NFL career. He’s easily the top target in the Bears’ running back room.
Xavier Hutchinson
Picking out receivers is the toughest part of preseason DFS. Most teams are carrying 10+ players at the start of the preseason, so it’s tough to decipher where the snaps are going to go. That said, a receiving touchdown is almost always enough to make a receiver fantasy-relevant. For that reason, it’s worth spraying some exposure across the position and hoping you get lucky.
Hutchinson was a sixth-round pick in 2023, and he led the Texans’ receivers in snaps last preseason. He garnered 10 total targets in those contests, which he turned into six catches for 70 yards. I would expect a similar role in 2024.
Ben Skowronek
Skowronek was acquired by the Texans to give them “more competition” in practice and elevate their special teams. That might make him a bit too valuable to risk in the Hall of Fame Game, but he is reportedly battling for one of the final roster spots at receiver. The only way to narrow down the contenders is to let them separate themselves on the field. He’s another player who should get some opportunities.
Jadon Janke
Janke is the type of guy I typically associate with preseason DFS. He’s an undrafted rookie free agent near the bottom of the depth chart, and those guys tend to soak up a bunch of snaps.
He also has an intriguing athletic profile. He’s 6’3” and 212 lbs, and he racked up more than 1,000 receiving yards in his final year at South Dakota State. He also ran the majority of his routes from the slot, which could give him some catch upside.
Peter LeBlanc
Nsimba Webster was the guy who led the Bears’ receiving corps during last preseason, and he’s still around in 2024. However, he has reportedly missed practice with an injury of late. That opens the door for some new names to step up.
LeBlanc could be one of them. He’s a UDFA who racked up 140 catches during his tenure at Louisiana.
John Jackson
Another UDFA receiver for the Bears. He was not as productive as LeBlanc in college, but he spent the first four years of his career at USC and was a three-star prospect.
