NFL Week 14 comes to a conclusion with a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. It’s a matchup that looked a lot better at the start of the season unless you’re a really big fan of the Simpsons. The Bengals are listed as 5.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 49.5.
The Bengals have been an offensive machine this season, ranking sixth in points per game and ninth in yards. In terms of EPA per play, they’re the seventh-best offense in the NFL. The only issue is they give back every single point they score on defense. They’re 31st in the league in points allowed per game, so they’ve played in high-scoring affairs all season. They enter this contest 9-3 to the over.
The Cowboys have been plagued by injuries all season, and they’ll have to play the rest of the year without quarterback Dak Prescott. However, Cooper Rush has played well in his stead, and the rest of the team is starting to get healthier. They’ve gotten back their No. 2 receiver and a host of key defenders in recent weeks, and they’ve picked up back-to-back wins over the Commanders and Giants.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game features two of the best receivers in the NFL: Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals and CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys.
Let’s start with Chase. He’s been the best receiver in fantasy this season, leading the position with an average of 22.7 PPR points per game. No one else is even remotely close: Nico Collins ranks second in that department, and he’s averaged just 19.5.
How Chase is scoring points does require a bit more examination. He hasn’t exactly been dominating from a utilization standpoint. His 25% target share is a solid figure, but it’s not what you’d expect from the top receiver in football. It’s actually not even the highest mark on the Bengals, with Tee Higgins leading the team at 28% when he’s been in the lineup. Chase also has just a 30% air yards share, so he’s not really dominating in that area, either.
Where Chase is making his money is touchdowns. He has 13 scores for the year, and he’s scored at least once in eight of his past 10 games. He also has four multi-touchdown games over that stretch, so he’s piling up the scores.
Chase does lead the league with 8.7 expected touchdowns this season, but he’s clearly run hot in that department. It makes him a bit risky at an $11,600 price tag. If he doesn’t find the end zone, it’s going to be tough for him to return value, barring a large spike in targets.
Still, Chase’s ceiling is one of the highest in the league. He has three games with at least 32.8 DraftKings points, including a massive 58.4 eruption vs. the Ravens. There have only been seven games where a receiver scored at least 55.0 DraftKings points since 2014-15, and Chase is responsible for three of them (per the Trends tool). That’s good enough to keep him in play at his current salary.
It’s a lot harder to get excited about Lamb. He’s maintained strong utilization since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback, posting a 26% target share. He’s been at 33% or higher in two of four outings with Rush, and he’s had three games with double-digit targets.
However, his utilization did take a noticeable hit last week with Brandin Cooks returning to the lineup. His route participation dipped to just 81%, and he was targeted on just 20% of his routes run. There’s no reason to expect his route participation to be that low again in Week 14, but there’s no guarantee his target share will return to normal.
The matchup is the most appealing factor working in Lamb’s favor. Cincinnati is 27th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve hemorrhaged points and yards to opposing offenses all season. However, they haven’t been quite as bad against receivers as they have been at some of the other positions: they’ve surrendered just the 14th-most PPR points per game.
Lamb ultimately stands out as overpriced at $10,600. He’s a bit more reasonable on FanDuel, but he still lags behind most of the other top options in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Joe Burrow hasn’t had some of the same jaw-dropping performances as Chase, but he’s still been really, really good. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, scoring at least 25.26 DraftKings points in each. He’s cracked 30 DraftKings points in three of those contests, so he’s playing as well as anyone in football.
While the Bengals’ defense has deservedly gotten plenty of ridicule, the Cowboys aren’t much better. They’ve surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving Burrow one of the best matchups on the slate. His +6.4 Opponent Plus/Minus leads all of Monday’s players by a pretty comfortable margin.
Burrow also grades out extremely well in our projections. He has the top median and ceiling projections, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well. He’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he’s still an elite target.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Chase Brown just barely misses qualifying for the elite tier, but don’t get it twisted: he’s one of the top running backs in fantasy at the moment. Since Zack Moss went down with an injury, Brown has barely left the field for the Bengals. He has an 83% snap share over his past four contests, and he’s handled 93% of the Bengals’ carries. It’s hard to beat that type of workload.
Brown also brings plenty to the table as a pass-catcher. He has a 64% route participation over that stretch, and he’s racked up a very healthy 15% target share.
The matchup for Brown is also outstanding. The Cowboys have been one of the worst teams in football against the run, ranking dead last in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the eighth-most PPR points to the position, and with the Bengals listed as moderate favorites, he could get a bit more work than usual.
As mentioned previously, you could make a good case that Higgins is the Bengals’ actual No. 1 receiver. He owns better marks than Chase in both target and air yards share, and he’s also seen a higher percentage of end zone targets. He’s not as explosive after the catch, but he checks a lot of the boxes you look for in a fantasy receiver.
Higgins has maintained his spot in the pecking order since returning to the lineup in Week 11. He has a 28% target share over that time frame, and he has double-digit targets in both outings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both, including 32.8 DraftKings points vs. the Chargers. Ultimately, the gap between him and Chase isn’t as big as the price differential suggests, so he’s another strong target.
The Cowboys recently stated that Rico Dowdle was going to be their featured runner moving forward, and so far, they’ve been true to their word. He’s still not operating as a true bell-cow back, but he’s had at least 68% of their carries in back-to-back games. He had his first 100-yard game of the season last week vs. the Giants, and he added a rushing touchdown for good measure.
However, the Bengals have been better defensively against the run than the pass, and with the Cowboys listed as underdogs, it’s not an ideal spot to target a between-the-tackles grinder. He’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings, though he stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $11,000, resulting in a slate-best 89% Bargain Rating.
Like Burrow, Rush draws one of the best possible matchups this week. The Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Rush owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.0. We’ve seen the Bengals surrender huge games to Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson in recent weeks, so Rush has significantly more appeal than usual.
Of course, Rush is not Jackson, Herbert, or Wilson. He’s more of a game manager, and his upside is definitely capped. He has managed to return positive value in two of his four starts, but he’s yet to top 20.36 DraftKings points.
Ultimately, Rush has a solid chance to return value in this matchup, but his ceiling is still pretty low. It checks in at just 24.1 in our NFL Models, which is lower than you’d typically expect for a QB facing the Bengals.
Cooks returned to the lineup for the Cowboys last week, and he ultimately caught a touchdown in his first game back. He also secured seven targets on just a 54% route participation, so he was targeted on 30% of his routes run. That gives him some upside if he sees an uptick in routes.
Still, Cooks has been targeted on just 16% of his routes for the year, so last week’s performance stands out as an outlier. If his route participation stays low and his target rate returns to normal, he has the potential to be a massive bust. He grades out poorly in our models, owning the worst projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
The two tight ends round out this price range. Mike Gesicki has had some moments for the Bengals this season, but he’s been much more involved when Higgins has been out of the lineup. He dipped to just a 55% route participation last week, which was his lowest mark since Week 7.
Gesicki still earned five targets in that contest, but his stock is clearly pointing down. The Cowboys are also 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, so he has very little working in his favor for Monday.
Jake Ferguson is an easier sell. The Bengals have been one of the best possible matchups for tight ends this season, surrendering the third-most PPR points per game. They’re No. 2 in terms of touchdowns allowed to the position, so it’s a great spot for Ferguson to get on the board for the first time this season.
Through the first 10 weeks, Ferguson also had a solid 18% target share. We’ve yet to really see him with Rush, but he has four top-eight finishes at the position. If he can add a score to his typical production, he has the potential to be a strong value.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Cade York will get his second start as the Bengals’ kicker after Evan McPherson was placed on IR.
- Andrei Iosivas ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Iosivas is coming off a strong showing last week, finishing with 12.5 DraftKings points thanks to a touchdown. He also bumped up to a 70% route participation in that contest, so his role with the team could be increasing.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Schoonmaker has started for the Cowboys recently, but with Ferguson back in the lineup, he should revert to TE2. He’ll still see some opportunities in that role, but he’s too expensive across the industry.
- KaVontae Turpin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – The Cowboys have employed a bit of a committee at receiver recently, and Turpin has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He’s still on the field all that often, but when he is, he’s often a focal point: he was targeted on 50% of his routes run last week.
- Jalen Tolbert ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Tolbert is arguably one of the top values on the slate. Even with Cooks back in the lineup last week, Tolbert still had a 76% route participation. He hasn’t seen a ton of targets of late, but he’s at least on the field more than his current price tag suggests.
- Jonathan Mingo ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Mingo is also in the mix for the Cowboys at receiver, and he’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run since joining the rotation.
- Tanner Hudson ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Hudson is known as the GOAT TE in preseason DFS, and he’s starting to provide some similar value during the regular season. He’s been targeted on more than 30% of his routes run this season, and he had a 23% route participation last week.
- Drew Sample ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Sample also sees some opportunities at tight end for the Bengals. He’s on the field more than Hudson, but he hasn’t been quite as involved as a pass-catcher.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($1,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Zeke’s role has plummeted in recent weeks, so he’s barely on the radar at this point. He’s a backup RB for a moderate underdog who brings minimal pass-catching upside to the table. There’s no reason to target him.
- Hunter Luepke ($400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Luepke continues to play on passing downs for the Cowboys, which gives him a smidge of appeal in a game where they’re expected to play from behind.
