NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 8) for Chargers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football

We’ve had a strong run of primetime games recently, and Sunday Night Football for Week 14 is no exception. The Chargers will square off with the Chiefs in an AFC West matchup, with the Chiefs listed as four-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 43.0 points.

Kansas City has picked up basically right where they left off last year. They’ve won almost all of their games, as they have just one blemish on their record currently, but they’ve done it in less than impressive fashion. Their offense has dipped outside the top 10 in both yards and points per game, which seems almost criminal with the best quarterback in football.

The Chargers have breezed through an easy schedule this season, putting them in a great spot to make the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. Their offense has looked a bit prehistoric at times, but their defense has been one of the best in the league. They’ve yet to record a true signature win, but a win Sunday night would certainly qualify.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Only one player is priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings: Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has zero doubters at this point, and he’s making a case to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history. He already has three Super Bowl wins – and three Super Bowl MVPs – and he’s on his way to another pair of trophies potentially this season.

However, Mahomes hasn’t been nearly as impactful statistically as we’ve seen in previous years. He’s posted career-low marks in both yards per game (248.3) and touchdown rate (4.4%), and he’s also thrown 11 picks in his 12 outings. He’s merely QB12 in terms of fantasy points per game, putting him behind guys like Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, and Brock Purdy. Not sure anyone had that on their fantasy bingo card entering the year.

The good news is that Mahomes has picked things up of late. The Chiefs have gone significantly more pass-heavy in recent weeks, posting a +8% Dropback Over Expectation since Week 8. They’ve been at +12% or greater in three of their past four outings, including a season-high +19% last week. In other words, Mahomes has had plenty of opportunities to sling it. He had 46 pass attempts last week vs. the Raiders, and he responded with his second 300-yard passing game of the year.

Mahomes’ fantasy production has also trended upward. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, and he had his best game of the season two weeks ago. He racked up 28.76 DraftKings points vs. the Panthers, finishing with 269 yards and three scores through the air and adding another 60 yards on the ground.

That all sounds great, but we’ve still seen a very limited ceiling from Mahomes for most of the year. He’s cracked 20 DraftKings points in just two outings, though they have both come in the past five weeks. That’s not what you’d expect for a QB priced at $10,800.

The matchup vs. the Chargers is also far from ideal. They’re third in the league in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Mahomes had just 14.0 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Chargers this season, and the Chiefs managed just 17 points on offense.

Ultimately, Mahomes still stands out as one of the best options on the slate, leading all players in median and ceiling projection. That said, he’s far from a must-play.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Justin Herbert is the other QB in this matchup, and he might be the superior target. For starters, his matchup is significantly better. Kansas City’s offense has gotten most of the attention this season, but they’ve also taken a step back defensively. They’re merely 21st in pass defense EPA, giving Herbert a +2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus. That’s the top mark on the slate.

Herbert has also historically thrived in this matchup. Playing against Mahomes tends to bring out the best in him, and he’s averaged 23.29 DraftKings points in seven previous matchups (per the Trends tool). That number would be even higher if not for a clunker in their first meeting this year, but Herbert was significantly banged up in that contest. He wasn’t even expected to play, so I’m not going to penalize him for that performance.

Jim Harbaugh has opened up the offense a bit in recent weeks, and Herbert has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven outings. His median and ceiling projections are slightly lower than Mahomes’, but he’s available at a discount. That actually makes him the better pure value, and he leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus.

One thing to monitor will be the status of Ladd McConkey. He’s been Herbert’s top receiver this season, and he’s pretty banged up at the moment. Ian Rapoport reports that he’s a true “game-time decision,” and the team will take it right up until 90 minutes before kickoff before making their decision.

If McConkey is in the lineup, he’s certainly viable vs. the Chiefs. He’s posted a 25% target share for the year, and that number was all the way up to 52% last week vs. the Falcons. McConkey has turned in some big games of late, scoring at least 21.3 DraftKings points in three of his past six outings.

There’s always risk in targeting injured players, but it can also lead to a big reward. His ownership will likely be reduced if he is active, and he has the top ceiling projection among the non-QBs on this slate.

Travis Kelce had a very quiet regular season in 2023-24, and he started the year slowly this season as well. However, injuries to the Chiefs’ receiving corps have forced him into a much bigger role. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown have both missed most of the year, and since Week 4, Kelce has posted an elite 29% target share. He’s also racked up 28% of the team’s air yards, which is an elite figure for a tight end.

The only reason Kelce hasn’t been better for fantasy purposes is a lack of touchdowns. He has just two receiving touchdowns for the year, which is two fewer than backup TE Noah Gray. He leads all tight ends with 6.4 expected receiving touchdowns (per PFF), so he’s been significantly unlucky in that department. If he can find the paint vs. the Chargers, he has the potential for a big day.

DeAndre Hopkins was acquired by the Chiefs in order to replace some of their injured receivers, and he has basically been as advertised. He’s not an every-down player with just a 59% route participation over his past five games, but he’s been a frequent target when on the field. He’s been targeted on 23% of his routes run, and he’s racked up a 17% target share overall.

One area where Hopkins has thrived has been as a touchdown scorer. He has 38% of the team’s endzone targets over their past five games, and he’s scored three touchdowns over that time frame. Hopkins and Mahomes have also been extremely correlated, posting a mark of +0.60 to start their tenure.

Hopkins feels a smidge overpriced for his role on DraftKings, but he’s one of the best pure values on the FanDuel slate. He leads all players with an 89% Bargain Rating.

How the Chiefs distribute the running back touches Sunday could have a huge impact for DFS contests. Isiah Pacheco returned to the lineup last week, and he figures to be their top option moving forward. That said, the split between Pacheco and Kareem Hunt was pretty even in his first game back. Pacheco had 33% of the snaps and 44% of the carries last week, while Hunt was at 40% and 44%, respectively.

Pacheco is priced well above Hunt on DraftKings, which makes sense. He’s the better player at this point in their careers, and he should continue to earn a larger piece of the pie. That said, there’s no guarantee that happens this week. The Chiefs have plenty of time to ramp Pacheco up before the playoffs, so this could be an unappealing committee for at least one more week.

Ultimately, neither of these options look particularly strong, but Pacheco has more upside. If you’re going to grab one, he’s the clear choice in our projections.

The Chargers backfield is equally unappealing. They lost JK Dobbins to an injury, which leaves Gus Edwards as the team’s top option. That said, Edwards saw just six carries as the team’s top back last week.

Edwards was on the field for more than 50% of the snaps, and the team simply didn’t have much of the ball last week. He should see more opportunities moving forward, but Edwards brings very little to the table as a pass catcher. He likely needs to punch in a touchdown to return value.

Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs’ other top receiver. However, his role hasn’t changed much since the start of the year. He’s their big-play threat, racking up 27% of their air yards on just 16% of their targets since Rice went down with an injury. He has game-changing speed, but he simply hasn’t been given a ton of opportunities to make plays this season.

Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer round out the Chargers’ receiving corps, and both players would get a significant bump if McConkey is unable to go.

Johnston has been the clear No. 2 receiving in the pecking order this season, and he’s shown some improvement after a disastrous rookie season. He’s not the most consistent player, but he has an 18% target share for the year and has seen 35% of their endzone targets.

Palmer’s role has been more limited, but he still has a 75% route participation for the season. That figure would likely increase if McConkey is ruled out, and he would have some potential to lead the team in targets in that scenario. Ultimately, Johnston has more standalone value, while Palmer needs some help to warrant his current price tag.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Cameron Dicker stands out as the most undervalued per Sim Labs, with his projected ownership checking in below his optimal lineup rate.
• Will Dissly ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Dissly has been an underrated part of the Chargers passing attack all season. He failed to catch a pass last week, but he’s been targeted on 22% of his routes run for the year. He could also see a boost in opportunities if McConkey is ruled out.
• Noah Gray ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Gray has been a sneaky option for the Chiefs all season, but he’s not priced that way this week. Still, he has a 57% route participation and 14% target share over his past three outings, and he’s always a threat for a touchdown or two. He’s still viable at these numbers.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster hasn’t had a ton of opportunities since returning from injury, but he’s still on the field at a decent clip. Anyone who shares the field with Mahomes has some appeal as a punt play.
• Justin Watson ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Everything I said about Smith-Schuster also applies to Watson. However, Watson dipped to just a 42% route participation last week, which was his second-lowest mark of the year.
• Kimani Vidal ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Vidal had 24% of the team’s carries last week without Dobbins. If Edwards continues to struggle, his role could grow moving forward.
• Samaje Perine ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Perine also got in the mix in the Chiefs backfield last week, serving as the third-down specialist. He hasn’t provided much fantasy value this season, but he did catch a touchdown in one outing.
• Hassan Haskins ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Haskins saw some usage in long-down-and-distance situations for the Chargers last week. He fits a similar profile to Perine, though he’s not quite as involved.
• Jalen Reagor ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Reagor Targaryen (I’ve been rewatching Game of Thrones) could see a boost in value if McConkey is ruled out. He’s already seen a handful of opportunities in recent weeks, including four targets vs. the Ravens two weeks ago.
• Derius Davis ($1,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Davis could also get in the mix at receiver if McConkey is ruled out.