Sunday Night Football in Week 17 features an important matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 46.5.
Both of these squads have something to play for this week. A win this week would guarantee the Commanders a playoff spot. They’re also technically still alive for the NFC East, though they would need to win out and have the Eagles lose out. The more likely scenario is a Wild Card berth, but they need one more win to lock that up.
The stakes are even higher for the Falcons. They’re currently tied with the Buccaneers atop the NFC South standings, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means that they control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re in the playoffs, and they can clinch this week with a win and another Buccaneers loss. However, a loss coupled with a Buccaneers win – they’re nearly 10-point favorites vs. the Panthers – puts them in serious jeopardy in the final week of the season.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jayden Daniels was the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and expectations were pretty high for him in his first season. That was particularly true for fantasy purposes, but Daniels has smashed even the loftiest expectations for him out of the park. He’s the No. 4 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing only the elite trio of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.
Daniels has done it by combining efficient passing numbers with plenty of rushing upside. He’s averaged 220 passing yards per game this season, and he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight contests. That includes a season-high five touchdown passes last week vs. the Eagles.
As a runner, Daniels has averaged 49.1 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Only Jackson has averaged more rushing yards per game at the QB position, and Daniels has also punched in six scores with his legs.
Daniels had a brief downswing in fantasy value during the middle of the season while dealing with a rib injury. The team was using him less as a runner, and his fantasy production suffered. However, he seems fully healthy now and is back to producing like an elite fantasy quarterback. He’s scored at least 23.64 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s had at least 28.64 in three of them. Daniels has finished as a top-seven scorer at the position in all four of those outings, including two finishes as QB1 overall.
There’s no reason to shy away from him in this matchup. The Falcons have been exploitable through the air this season, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Daniels has a +2.4 Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup, which trails only the Commanders’ receivers (+2.7).
Ultimately, Daniels stands out as the clear top target on this slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Bijan Robinson has been the Falcons’ top fantasy producer this season, and he’s been on a roll recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 outings, and he’s scored at least 23.6 DraftKings points in seven of them. He’s been the No. 4 RB in PPR points per game for the year, trailing only Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Joe Mixon.
Robinson will take the field as an underdog Sunday, and that’s typically not the best time to pay up for a running back. Robinson has seen a slight reduction in value in that split for his career, but he’s still averaged a respectable +1.74 Plus/Minus as a dog this season (per the Trends tool). He’s scored at least 20.1 DraftKings points in his past two outings as an underdog, including 28.5 DraftKings points vs. the Chargers earlier this month.
Robinson is more capable than most of producing as an underdog because of the value he provides as a pass catcher. He has a 14% target share for the year, which is the fifth-best mark at the RB position.
Robinson should also be productive with the carries he gets in this matchup. Washington is 25th in rush defense EPA, so opposing RBs have been successful against them.
Overall, Robinson doesn’t look quite as appealing as Daniels in our projections, but he’s still a viable pay-up target at $11,000. He’s been as high as $12,000 recently, so he’s a bit cheaper than usual.
Terry McLaurin rounds out the stud tier, and he has been every bit of a stud receiver so far this season. He doesn’t see the same volume of targets that you expect from a stud receiver with just two games with 10-plus targets all year, but he makes up for it with the quality of targets he receives. He has 41% of his team’s air yards, and his average depth of target (aDOT) sits at 14.4 yards. He’s also seen 41% of his team’s end-zone targets, leading to a career-best 12 touchdowns.
McLaurin has done some of his best work recently. He’s scored six times in his past four outings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each contest. Overall, he has at least one touchdown or 100 receiving yards in seven of his past eight games.
However, players that rely as heavily on touchdowns as McLaurin does are inherently risky. When McLaurin doesn’t find the paint, it’s harder for him to make up the difference with yards and receptions. That was evident in his first game vs. the Eagles this season, when he finished with just one catch for 10 yards.
The matchup vs. the Falcons does mitigate some of that risk, but he stands out as a boom-or-bust play at his current salary. He has plenty of upside, but there’s also significant downside.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Drake London has been the Falcons’ top receiver all season, but it remains to be seen how he’ll produce without Kirk Cousins. Cousins hasn’t had a great year, but he’s gotten the ball to London enough to make him the No. 9 receiver in PPR scoring.
London finished with just 10.9 DraftKings points in his first game with Michael Penix Jr., but that doesn’t tell the full story. The Falcons didn’t really need to throw the ball last week, with the Giants gifting them 14 points on defense. When Penix did take to the air, London was his clear No. 1 option. He was targeted on 35% of his routes run, so London could be undervalued with Penix under center if they’re forced to throw more often.
London is currently projected for less than 30% ownership in the flex spots and less than 6% at Captain. That undervalues his upside on this slate, which is reflected in Sim Labs.
Speaking of Penix, he’s another player who could provide some value. He’s priced at just $8,800 on DraftKings, which is cheap for a quarterback in the single-game format. Penix didn’t show out in his NFL debut, finishing with just 202 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception, but he threw the ball just 27 times. He will likely have to throw more vs. the Commanders, making him an interesting buy-low target.
Penix was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last season, and at 24 years old, he’s more pro-ready than most first-round picks. There’s always a learning curve when transitioning to the NFL, but Penix is still a very intriguing target vs. the Falcons. Only Daniels has a higher ceiling projection in our NFL Models, so he brings some upside to the table at a minimum.
Brian Robinson will serve as the Commanders’ top running back, and he’s seen a slight uptick in value with Austin Ekeler on IR. That hasn’t been reflected in his fantasy production of late, as he has a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but his underlying utilization is strong. He’s seeing more pass-catching work out of the backfield, and he had 21 carries vs. the Saints two weeks ago.
If the Commanders are able to establish a lead vs. the Falcons, Robinson should see significantly more opportunities than he saw last week vs. the Eagles. That makes him an interesting buy-low target at $9,000 vs. a Falcons defense that is below-average in rush defense EPA.
Darnell Mooney has served as the Falcons’ 1B to London’s 1A for most of the year. He has a 22% target share and 35% air-yards share, both of which are excellent for a No. 2 receiver. He was able to maintain or exceed those numbers in his first start with Penix, racking up a 23% target share and 48% air yards share vs. the Giants.
Mooney ultimately finished with 13.2 DraftKings points, catching five of six targets for 82 yards. He’s not grading out particularly well in our models, but he has some upside at $8,400.
Olamide Zaccheaus caught two touchdowns last week for the Commanders after racking up zero in their first 15 games. It’s easy to write that up as a fluke, but I wouldn’t be so quick to do so. While he probably won’t score twice again, he should see solid utilization with the team banged up at receiver.
The Commanders are currently playing without Noah Brown and Dyami Brown, which leaves Zaccheaus as their clear No. 2 receiver. He had a season-high 70% route participation last week, and he racked up eight targets. He was ultimately targeted on 25% of his routes run, and he should see a similar volume of routes on Sunday night.
Zaccheaus is a reasonable target on DraftKings, but he’s a downright steal on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a slate-high 89% Bargain Rating.
Ray-Ray McLoud has seen a ton of snaps as the Falcons’ WR3 this season, and he had a 93% route participation once again last week. He had a 15% target share in that contest, but he finished with just three catches for 19 yards. He’s now posted a Plus/Minus in back-to-back games after scoring at least 10.6 DraftKings points in his three prior contests. His salary has crept up to $5,400 on DraftKings, and that might make him a smidge too expensive.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. This game is expected to be a bit higher scoring, so the kickers are grading out better than the defenses.
- Kyle Pitts ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – It doesn’t seem to matter who is coaching or who is playing quarterback; Pitts just isn’t a huge part of the gameplan. He saw just two targets last week vs. the Giants, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven straight games. Like “fetch,” Pitts is probably just never going to happen.
- Zach Ertz ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Ertz stands out as the superior TE in this contest and one of the best pure values on the slate. He’s had a decent role in the Commanders’ offense all season, and he’s been priced as high as $7,000. Getting him at a sub-$5k price tag makes him an excellent buy-low target.
- Tyler Allgeier ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Allgeier’s involvement in the offense has been minimal this season, though he does have at least eight carries in four straight games. He’s a better option in lineups based around a Falcons’ blowout, and he can even be played alongside Bijan: the two players have a neutral +0.04 correlation on DraftKings.
- Jamison Crowder ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Like Zaccheaus, Crowder benefits from the team’s current injury situation. He also caught two touchdowns last week, though his underlying utilization isn’t quite as impressive. Still, he was on the field for 46% of the team’s pass plays, and he had an 11% target share.
- Jeremy McNichols ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – McNichols has been Robinson’s primary backup since Ekeler went down with an injury, and he also works in on passing downs. He’s the Commanders’ backup RB to roster if you want to go that route.
- Chris Rodriguez ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Rodriguez also gets in the mix for Washington, though he’s had a 13% carry share or lower in three of his past four games.
- Luke McCaffrey ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – The other McCaffrey has struggled to see the field this season, regardless of who has been hurt for the Commanders. However, he was targeted on 43% of his routes last week, and it’s possible he takes a slight step forward vs. the Falcons.
