NFL Week 17 is loaded with different NFL slates, and we’ll have a Thursday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. The Seahawks are listed as four-point road favorites, while the total sits at 42.0 points.
These are two squads headed in opposite directions. The Bears have lost nine straight games, some of which have come in excruciating fashion. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are still fighting for a playoff spot. They’re currently one game behind the Rams in the NFC West standings, and those two squads will have a head-to-head matchup in Week 18. If the Seahawks pick up a win vs. the Bears, it likely will keep them alive for a postseason bid.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This year has represented a bit of a changing of the guard at the receiver position in Seattle. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have long been the top two options for the Seahawks, but Jaxson Smith-Njigba has seemingly overtaken both.
Metcalf went down with an injury in Week 8, and since then, Smith-Njigba has been a target monster. He’s posted a 29% target share over his past eight contests, and he’s also racked up 41% of the team’s air yards. Even with Metcalf returning to the fold, JSN has maintained his spot atop the pecking order. He had a 29% target share in last week’s outing, and he was at 40% the week prior.
All those targets have led to excellent fantasy production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven contests, and he’s been a top-20 PPR scorer at the position in five of them. He came up just short of the 100-yard receiving bonus last week, but he still managed 24.0 DraftKings points on eight catches, 95 yards, and a score.
The Bears have had a formidable pass defense since the start of last season, but they have regressed badly over the past handful of weeks. They are a horrid 30th in pass defense EPA since Week 10, and they’ve allowed at least 30 points to four of their past five opponents. That makes the matchup much friendlier than it appears on paper.
The only real downside with Smith-Njigba is his price tag. He’s up to $10,200, which is easily his highest mark of the season. He was priced at just $9,000 last week, so it’s a pretty significant jump. Still, on a slate with limited high-end fantasy options, he’s a viable pay-up target.
The Bears have also provided plenty of fantasy value at receiver of late. However, I’m not entirely sure that the right guy is priced as a stud in this matchup. D.J. Moore is up to $10,000, but he has been the Bears’ No. 2 receiver.
The Bears changed up their offensive play caller before their Week 11 matchup vs. the Packers, and the results have generally been positive. They’ve yet to win any of those contests, but they’re at least moving the ball more consistently.
Over that stretch, Moore has posted a 28% target share and a 32% air yards share. Both numbers rank second on the team…but they’re still strong numbers overall. Moore has cracked double-digit DraftKings points in each contest, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five.
The Seahawks have been solid against the pass this season, but they’ve still allowed a decent number of fantasy points to opposing receivers. They’re 11th in PPR points per game vs. the position, so it’s a good enough matchup.
Moore stands out as a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but he’s an absolute steal on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,500, making him just the seventh-priciest option on the slate. He also leads all players with a 91% Bargain Rating.
Even on DraftKings, Moore still grades out pretty well in our projections. His median projection is actually higher than JSN’s, and he trails only the two quarterbacks in that department. He’s definitely a stronger option on FanDuel, but he’s viable across the industry.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
I would argue that Keenan Allen deserves to be the most expensive receiver in Chicago. That’s not based purely on fantasy production, though he has scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings. Rather, it’s based on his elite underlying utilization.
Since the Bears changed play callers, Allen has racked up a massive 31% target share. He’s up to 28% for the year, which is tied for the fifth-best mark in the league. Only some of the biggest target hogs at receiver – Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams – have seen a larger share of their team’s looks.
Allen has also been getting more involved downfield. He has a 38% air yards share since Week 11, and he’s been at 40% or higher in back-to-back games. Allen has at least one score in four of his past five outings, and he’s had 13 targets in two straight.
The only real concern is that Allen sees the majority of his snaps in the slot, which sets up a matchup vs. Devon Witherspoon. He’s been the team’s top cover corner this season, and he plays 60% of his snaps against slot receivers (per PFF).
The Seahawks’ other corners are much more exploitable, so Moore does get a slight edge from a matchup standpoint. That could be why he’s grading out as the better target in our models. Still, with the combination of volume and production that Allen has provided recently, I’m not shying away from him.
Caleb Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season. I mean that both metaphorically and literally. He’s been sacked a league-high 60 times, so he’s spent a large part of the year getting tackled and scooped up off the ground.
We have seen some flashes of brilliance from Williams, and those have happened a bit more frequently of late. For fantasy purposes, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six outings, and he’s scored at least 26.14 in three of his past five. That gives him a solid ceiling for his price tag.
Williams will be at home on Thursday, and that could also work in his favor. He’s had sizeable home/road splits to start his career, averaging more than four additional fantasy points per game when playing at Soldier Field. He’s averaged 19.26 DraftKings points in his eight home starts, and he’s had at least 26.56 DraftKings points in four of his past six. Williams has smashed specifically as a home dog, averaging 25.64 DraftKings points and a +7.43 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).
Add in his rushing upside, and I think Williams has the higher ceiling among the two quarterbacks. He’s a prime target on this slate.
Geno Smith is the other QB, and he’s been inconsistent of late. He’s coming off a decent fantasy performance last week, finishing with 26.36 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings, but he had 13.36 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his four previous outings. Smith has had a few spike weeks after a strong start to the year, but he’s ultimately finished with 17.78 DraftKings points or fewer in eight of his past 10 contests.
That makes him a high-risk, high-reward option vs. the Bears. He has a wide range of outcomes, but if he hits his ceiling in a friendly matchup, he could be one of the highest scorers on the slate.
The emergence of Smith-Njigba as the Seahawks’ No. 1 receiver has unsurprisingly had a negative impact on Metcalf. The two players do have a positive correlation (+0.27), but there are only so many targets to go around. It’s possible for both players to provide value in the same game – especially if Geno goes off at quarterback – but it’s difficult for both players to hit their ceiling.
Metcalf has seen a reduction in targets since returning to the lineup in Week 11. He has just a 21% target share over that time frame, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of those six outings. That was last week, and he still managed to catch just three passes. Fortunately, one of them found the end zone.
Without the steady target volume he was seeing at the beginning of the year, Metcalf has become a boom or bust option. He still has a healthy 40% air yards share over his past six outings, so the ceiling is there. If he catches a long pass and/or scores a touchdown, he has some upside. If he doesn’t, he’s likely going to bust.
The matchup vs. the Bears is another thing working against him. JSN plays most of his snaps from the slot, and stud cornerback Jaylon Johnson rarely ventures there. That leaves him to matchup against the Seahawks’ best perimeter receiver, which is undoubtedly Metcalf.
Metcalf’s price tag has declined steadily, but it’s hard to make a buy-low case in this contest.
The Seahawks got Kenneth Walker back in the lineup last week, but he’s returned to the sidelines once again in Week 17. That leaves Zach Charbonnet to handle the starting duties.
What we’ve seen from Charbonnet as a starter has been elite. He’s scored at least one touchdown in all four games as a starter, and he’s had at least 17.9 DraftKings points in three of them. The lone exception was his last start vs. the Packers, and he still managed a respectable 13.6 DraftKings points in a game where the Seahawks trailed throughout.
Charbonnet has seen at least 71% of the team’s carries in three of his four starts this season, and he’s also a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield. Add in the touchdown upside, and he checks all the boxes that you’re looking for in a fantasy running back.
While the Bears’ defense has struggled against the pass recently, they’ve been subpar against the run all season. It’s a phenomenal matchup, and Charbonnet is undoubtedly underpriced with Walker out of the picture.
Things don’t look quite as rosy for the Bears’ starting RB. D’Andre Swift has posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, including five straight. He’s had an ineffective year as a runner, averaging just 3.8 yards per attempt, and the Bears have gone more pass-heavy under their new offensive play-caller.
With Roschon Johnson back in the fold and a threat to steal touches around the goal line, there isn’t a ton to like about Swift at the moment. His price tag has come down significantly – and his team is a home favorite – but he’s still pretty uninspiring.
Rome Odunze rounds out the Bears’ receiving corps, and he’s also carved out a decent chunk of targets of late. He hasn’t been quite as involved as Moore and Allen, but he still has a 21% target share over his past six games. He also has an average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.1 yards over that stretch, which is easily the top mark on the squad. That makes him their top big-play threat.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Bears defense is standing out as the most undervalued option per SimLabs, with their projected ownership roughly 3.1% lower than their optimal lineup rate.
- Cole Kmet ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Kmet hasn’t been a huge part of the offense recently, logging just six total targets over his past four weeks. However, he remains on the field for the vast majority of the team’s passing plays, and he did manage to find the paint last week. He has some potential.
- Noah Fant ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Fant looks pretty similar to Kmet on the surface, though he’s been the busier pass-catcher of late. He has a target share of at least 14% in four straight games since returning from injury, and he stands out as the best target in this range per projected Plus/Minus.
- Tyler Lockett ($3,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Lockett remains the Seahawks’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s on the field for a ton of snaps. That said, it’s mostly cardio at this point. He’s had a target share of just 12% for the year, and he’s been at 5% or lower in three straight games.
- A.J. Barner ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Barner also factors into the equation at tight end for the Seahawks, and he sees a couple of opportunities each week.
- Roschon Johnson ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Johnson returned from an injury in the team’s last contest, though he didn’t do much in a game where the team trailed throughout. If they can stay competitive vs. the Seahawks, he could see a few more carries. He’s also the team’s best power runner, making him a threat for the goal-line carries.
