Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 16 features a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. The Bucs are listed as four-point road favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.
Tampa Bay was not really expected to contend for a postseason spot in 2024, but they’re currently leading the NFC South. They still have plenty of work to do, as they lead the Falcons by just one game and Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, but they’re playing the better football at the moment. Specifically, they’ve had one of the best offenses in the league, ranking in the top four in both yards and points per game.
The Cowboys will not be making it to the postseason this year, but they’re going down swinging. They’ve picked up three wins in their past four outings, including a road win over the Commanders. Their defense has been significantly improved as it’s gotten healthier, while they’re surviving offensively without Dak Prescott.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This contest features two of the best receivers in football: Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb. Lamb led the league in nearly every receiving metric last season, while Evans has more than 1,000 receiving yards in 10 straight years to start his career.
Let’s start with Evans. He has some work to do if he’s going to keep his streak alive. He missed three games due to an injury earlier this season, so he’s currently sitting at 52 receptions, 749 yards, and nine touchdowns for the year. Evans has a $3M incentive if he can get to 70/1,000/10, so he has plenty of motivation heading down the stretch.
The good news is that Evans is already a huge part of the team’s gameplan. He’s racked up 29% of the team’s targets and 46% of their air yards since returning from injury in Week 12, and he has 48% of their end zone targets for the year.
Evans was even busier than usual last week. He garnered a massive 42% target share, and he responded with his best game of the season: nine catches, 159 yards, and two touchdowns. He ultimately finished with 39.9 DraftKings points, making him the third-highest-scoring receiver of the week.
Evans could maintain an elevated target share vs. the Cowboys. Cade Otton has been a primary target in the Bucs’ passing attack this season, especially since Chris Godwin went down with an injury. Otton has posted a 15% target share for the year, but he’ll miss his first game of the season Sunday night.
Finally, the matchup vs. the Cowboys is also solid. They haven’t been quite as bad against the pass as they have been against the run, but they’ve still allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. Ultimately, there’s no reason to shy away from Evans in this spot.
It’s a bit harder to make the case for Lamb, though he still grades out pretty well in our models. Lamb has seen a clear drop in production with Prescott on the sidelines, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past seven games.
However, he has rebounded nicely with two solid outings in a row. He racked up 29.6 DraftKings points last week vs. the Panthers, finishing with 116 yards and a touchdown, and he had 21.4 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals the week prior. Lamb has maintained his clear alpha role in the team’s passing attack, racking up a 29% target share since Prescott went down with an injury. His target share eclipsed 50% last week, so he’s still capable of putting up huge performances.
Ultimately, Lamb’s ceiling doesn’t feel quite as high as Evans’, but it’s still one of the best on the slate. Tampa has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, so it’s a fantastic matchup as well.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
What does Baker Mayfield have to do to get some respect around here? He’s been the fifth-best quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing only known studs Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. He’s also been remarkably consistent, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but three games this season.
So why is this man priced below $10,000 vs. the Cowboys? He’s scored at least 22.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and last week’s contest vs. the Chargers was significantly tougher. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving Mayfield a slate-best +5.3 Opponent Plus/Minus.
The only real downside with Mayfield is that he hasn’t historically been at his best as a road favorite. He’s still managed 17.49 DraftKings points in four starts as a road favorite with Tampa Bay, but that’s good for an average Plus/Minus of -3.09 (per the Trends tool).
Still, this price tag seems extremely generous, all things considered. He leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection, and he’s second in projected Plus/Minus.
The Cowboys stated a desire to get Rico Dowdle more involved in the offense, and they have lived up to their word of late. He’s gone for 100 or more rushing yards in three straight games, and he’s returned positive fantasy value in each of them.
He took over as the Cowboys’ clear lead running back in Week 12, and since then, he’s handled 69% of the team’s carries. He’s also started to work in more on passing downs, though that hasn’t necessarily led to a huge spike in targets.
That said, the matchup vs. the Buccaneers isn’t ideal. Tampa has been significantly better against the run than the pass this season, ranking eighth in rush defense EPA. Dowdle owns the worst Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate at -4.1, and the Cowboys are underdogs as well. There are enough concerns here to keep Dowdle from being a high-end option, but he still has some upside.
Bucky Irving is much more interesting. He’s part of a committee backfield, but he’s been the team’s clear between-the-tackles grinder as a rookie. He’s absolutely thrived in that role, averaging 5.6 yards per carry while leading the team with six rushing scores.
Expect Irving to make the most out of his opportunities vs. the Cowboys. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, so Irving should be able to do some damage on the ground. The absence of Otton could also result in a few additional targets going to the Bucs running backs, who have already displayed excellent pass-catching abilities this season. His price tag has also come slightly down after peaking at $9,800 last week, so he checks a lot of boxes in this matchup.
Playing Irving doesn’t mean you can’t also take a look at Rachaad White. Typically, two running backs in the same backfield would cannibalize each other’s value, but these two have a neutral +0.01 correlation. In other words, a good game from Irving doesn’t necessarily help White, but it shouldn’t hurt him much, either.
White continues to lead the backfield in snaps, and he’s been the more targeted option out of the backfield in the passing game. He has an 11% target share for the year, and he’s second on the team with six receiving touchdowns. They love to use him around the goal line, so he also has appeal in this matchup.
Cooper Rush has taken over at quarterback in place of Prescott, and he’s the definition of a game manager. He’s not going to make a ton of eye-popping throws, but he’s not going to actively hurt his team like some backup quarterbacks. He’s good enough to keep the Cowboys competitive most weeks, which is great news for the rest of this roster.
Rush can also deliver some standalone fantasy value of his own on occasion. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games, and he’s cracked 20 DraftKings points in two of them. He draws a fantastic matchup Sunday night, with the Bucs allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Overall, he seems a bit underpriced.
Jalen McMillan is having a bit of a rookie breakout. He’s scored at least 18.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, scoring three touchdowns over that time frame. He’s also had at least six targets in both outings, finishing with a 25% target share during that stretch.
McMillan’s price tag is up to $7,000 this week, which is nearly double what he was priced at last week. Paying an elevated price tag for a player is always risky, but if McMillan can maintain his increased involvement, he has the potential to return value once again.
Brandin Cooks rounds out this price range, and he is nearly back to being a full-time player at receiver. He had a 93% route participation last week, which was higher even than Lamb’s mark.
Unfortunately, Cooks hasn’t been a huge target threat over that time frame. He’s had a target share of just 15%, and he’s failed to return value in all three games. He’s a bit overpriced for his role at $6,600, even in a strong matchup.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Bucs defense stands out as the most undervalued option on Sim Labs, with their projected ownership checking 3.2% lower than their optimal lineup rate.
- Jake Ferguson ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Ferguson has played in two straight games for the Cowboys, and he has a 17% target share over that timeframe. He’s still hunting for his first touchdown of the year, and if he ever finds the paint, he’s a good bet to pay off his current price tags.
- Jalen Tolbert ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Tolbert’s role has diminished as Cooks has been reintegrated into the offense. His route participation dipped to just 50% last week, and he’s had a target share below 10% in three of his past four outings.
- Sterling Shepard ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Shepard picked up just one target last week vs. the Chargers, but his target share was above 20% in each of his three prior outings. He has some buy-low appeal.
- KaVontae Turpin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Turpin continues to play minimal snaps for the Cowboys, and he failed to earn a single target last week. However, he is typically a focal point when on the field for Dallas: he’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run this season.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – With Dowdle taking over as the team’s top running back, it hasn’t left much for Zeke the past few weeks. He doesn’t feel particularly relevant on this slate.
- Sean Tucker ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Tucker also works into the Bucs’ backfield, but he’s not particularly involved on a weekly basis. He’s best deployed in lineups constructed around a Bucs blowout.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($1,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – With Ferguson back in the mix, Schoomaker has run a route on 26% and 17% of the team’s dropbacks the past two weeks. He didn’t earn a single target last week, so he’s another tough sell.
- Payne Durham ($200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Durham stands out as the clear top value target, and he’s one of the strongest plays on the entire slate. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus and should replace Otton as the Bucs’ primary tight end. It remains to be seen if he’ll fill the exact same role, but Otton has been on the field more than just about any tight end in football. If Durham gets the same treatment, he’s a steal at the minimum.
