NFL Week 13 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos are listed as six-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.0.
Denver has vastly exceeded expectations this season. Their defense has blossomed into arguably the best in football, while their offense gets better on a weekly basis. They’ve already hit the over on the preseason win total, and they have a great chance of making it to the postseason.
Conversely, things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Browns. They’ve won just three of their first 11 games, and they traded away their best offensive player before the deadline. That said, they’ve shown some signs of life since DeShaun Watson went down with an injury, and they did pull off an upset win over the Steelers in their last outing.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Despite the Broncos losing Jerry Jeudy this offseason, Courtland Sutton was not valued very highly at receiver entering the year. He was drafted on average as the No. 43 wide receiver off the board, and he’s massively outperformed those expectations. He’s currently the No. 26 receiver in PPR points per game, and he’s been far better than that recently.
Over his past five games, Sutton has emerged as a legit alpha receiver. He’s racked up a 29% target share over that time frame, and he’s accumulated 45% of the team’s air yards. He’s also been one of the top end-zone threats in the league. Sutton has 48% of the team’s end zone targets for the year, and only Ja’Marr Chase entered this week with more expected receiving touchdowns (per PFF).
In response, Sutton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He’s scored at least 14.8 DraftKings points in all five contests, and he’s gone for more than 20 three times. Overall, he’s averaged 20.8 PPR points per game over that stretch, making him the third-highest-scoring receiver on a per-game basis.
Sutton is coming off his best game of the season last week vs. the Raiders, tallying two touchdowns and just under 100 receiving yards. His current matchup vs. the Browns is significantly tougher, but Cleveland hasn’t been quite as dominant defensively as they were last year. They’re merely 19th in dropback EPA after ranking first by a comfortable margin in 2023-24.
Sutton’s price tag has increased in recent weeks, but $10,200 still feels very fair for a receiver with his underlying metrics. With the Broncos passing game continuing to improve, Sutton provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling.
Bo Nix is the other stud option in this matchup, which is a pretty massive surprise from where he started the year. He looked completely overmatched at the NFL level through his first four games, averaging just 3.62 adjusted yards per attempt with one passing touchdown and four picks.
That said, Nix has completely turned the corner since then. He’s been outstanding for fantasy purposes, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight outings. He’s sprinkled in some ceiling performances as well, finishing with 29.76 DraftKings points vs. the Panthers and 31.78 DraftKings points vs. the Falcons. Overall, he’s the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in points per game from Week 5 on.
Like most QBs, Nix has been at his best as a favorite this season. He’s averaged 23.63 DraftKings points per game in that split, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.72 (per the Trends tool). That’s roughly 8.5 more points per game than he’s averaged as a dog.
The matchup isn’t easy vs. the Browns, but it’s also not terrible. Nix owns a +1.1 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is actually one of the better marks on the slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s second in projected Plus/Minus as well.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jameis Winston delivered a legendary performance in his last outing. Not necessarily on the field – although he did lead the team to an upset win over the Steelers – but he delivered some legendary sound bytes.
For fantasy purposes, Winston delivered 15.46 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers. His production with his arm was subpar in the wintery conditions, but he did punch in a rushing touchdown. Winston has been up-and-down in his four starts, racking up two games with at least 27.56 DraftKings points and two with 15.46 or fewer.
It’s hard to see him hitting his ceiling against the Broncos. They’ve been the No. 1 defense in terms of EPA per pass, and they’re 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. QBs will always have some appeal in the single-game format, but Winston doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong quarterback in our projections.
Still, Winston is undoubtedly a better option than Nick Chubb. Chubb did manage to find the end zone twice vs. the Steelers, but the rest of his numbers remained extremely disappointing. He turned 20 carries into just 59 yards, and he’s averaged just 3.0 yards per carry for the year.
Chubb isn’t going to have the luxury of getting 20 carries and multiple scores every week. That’s especially true in a game where his team is an underdog of nearly a full touchdown. Ultimately, he has the worst projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate.
Next up is the Browns’ pass-catchers. It’s tough to separate these guys on a weekly basis, but it will be a smidge easier this week. They’ve already ruled out Cedric Tillman with a concussion, which opens up a few additional opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Jeudy is the most expensive of the bunch at $9,000, and he’s been pretty reliable since Winston took over at QB. He has at least 12.9 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He also leads the team with a 24% target share over that time frame.
Unfortunately, the increased salary means the bar has been raised for Juedy this week. Cracking double-digits isn’t going to cut it; he needs to eclipse 15.55 DraftKings points to return positive value. That seems like a tough ask against the Broncos. He’s a much more reasonable option on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with an 89% Bargain Rating.
While Jeudy is a bit overpriced, I still prefer him to David Njoku. Njoku has not had the same impact with Winston under center, posting a 14% target share and 10% air yards share over his past four games. He had just one catch last week vs. the Steelers, and he’s much more touchdown-dependent than the other pass-catchers in this price range.
Elijah Moore might be the best pure value of the bunch. His utilization numbers are pretty similar to Jeudy over the past four games – 22% target share, 26% air yards share – but he’s done it on far fewer snaps. He could see a boost in snaps with Tillman out of the picture, which definitely increases his appeal. Moore is also significantly cheaper than Jeudy at just $7,400.
It appeared as though Javonte Williams lost his status as the Broncos’ top RB back in Week 10. He played on just 29% of the snaps and had just 5% of the carries, putting him way down the pecking order.
However, he’s bounced back since then. His role is still far from secure, but he’s led the team in carries in back-to-back weeks. Most importantly, he remains the most likely RB to get the carries around the goal line. He has 62% of the carries from inside the five-yard line this season, giving him decent touchdown upside as a favorite vs. the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns per game this season (1.4), and if Williams finds the paint, he has a great chance to return value.
Devaughn Vele rounds out this price range, and he’s solidified his status as the team’s No. 2 receiver. He’s had a 74% route participation and 19% target share over their past three outings, and he’s also racked up 27% of the air yards.
That said, $6,400 is simply too expensive for him. He’s yet to score more than 14.0 DraftKings points in a game, so his ceiling is very low for a player in this price range.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Browns defense stands out as significantly undervalued on this slate, checking in with just 4.7% projected ownership but closer to a 15% optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
- Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – McLaughlin has seen a reduction of value since the start of the season, but he did have 30% of the team’s carries last week. Unfortunately, he’s not being used at all as a pass-catcher; he hasn’t had a target in three straight games.
- Jerome Ford ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Ford is clearly behind Chubb in the Browns’ backfield, but he still sees plenty of snaps. That’s particularly true in passing situations, and the Browns could face plenty of those as underdogs.
- Audric Estime ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Estime came out of nowhere to take over the RB job in Week 10, but he appears to be out of the equation for the time being. He had just 24% of the team’s carries two games ago, and that figure dipped to 15% last week. Still, you never know which way the wind is going to blow Sean Payton.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Humphrey is one of the many bodies that the Broncos use at receiver. He has a 48% route participation and 13% target share over his past five games.
- Troy Franklin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Franklin has seen roughly the same volume of snaps as Humphrey, but he hasn’t been quite as involved from a target perspective. That said, he’s been targeted on 19% of his routes run for the year.
- Marvin Mims ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Mims is also in the equation for the Broncos’ receiving corps, but he’s barely holding on. His route participation has been below 30% in three straight games, though he has been targeted at a decent clip when on the field.
- Jordan Akins ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Akins isn’t on the field often, but Winston really likes throwing the ball his way. He’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in back-to-back games, resulting in a 16% target share overall last week.
- Josh Reynolds ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Reynolds hasn’t suited up since Week 5, but he’s been upgraded to questionable this week. Even if he returns, it’s hard to imagine him making a huge impact.
- Adam Trautman ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Trautman is the Broncos’ No. 2 TE from a snaps standpoint, but he’s No. 1 in terms of targets. That said, Nix doesn’t throw to the position very often, and he has a single-digit target share in all but one game this season.
- Lucas Krull ($1,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Krull typically sees more snaps than Trautman, but he’s failed to record a target in back-to-back games.
- Jamari Thrash ($1,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Thrash is an appealing punt play as the likely No. 3 receiver for the Browns. He saw a season-high in routes after Tillman got hurt last week, and he could clear the 50% threshold vs. the Broncos.
