NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 16) for Falcons vs. Raiders Monday Night Football

NFL Week 15 features a Monday Night Football doubleheader, with the second game featuring the Atlanta Falcons and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Falcons are listed as 5.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.

The Falcons have hit a rough patch recently, losing four straight games, and they desperately need a win to keep pace with the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Tampa Bay improved to 8-6 with a win over the Chargers on Sunday, and the Falcons are currently 1.5 games behind them. They do own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa, but they can’t afford to fall any further behind.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are just trying to make it to the end of the season. They’re down to their third quarterback, and they’ll be without their best player, Maxx Crosby, on Monday. They would have the No. 2 pick in the draft if the season ended today, which would put them in a position to draft a franchise quarterback.

Let’s dive into all the options for Monday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Bijan Robinson is the most expensive option in this contest, and he’s really the only player worth calling a “stud.” It hasn’t always been pretty with Robinson, but he’s currently tied for third in PPR points per game with Alvin Kamara. Only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon have been better, and the gap between those guys and Robinson is pretty slim.

Bijan has been on a bit of a heater recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, scoring at least 20.1 DraftKings points in each outing. He’s finished as a top-12 scorer at the position in all seven of those contests, and he’s had four finishes inside the top four.

Robinson isn’t a true bell-cow back, but he gets enough usage in the most important areas to make up for it. Specifically, he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run over his past eight games, and he’s posted a 16% target share over that sample. That’s the fourth-best mark at running back over that time frame, trailing only elite pass-catching backs Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and De’Von Achane.

Robinson has also handled most of the team’s scoring opportunities. He has 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line over their past two weeks, and he has eight scores in his past eight games. That’s a big increase from the start of the year, where he had just one touchdown in his first five outings.

Robinson will also take the field as a favorite on Monday, and he’s smashed in that split this season. He’s played in five games as a favorite of at least a field goal, and he’s averaged 24.36 DraftKings points and a +9.19 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). His lowest output in that split is 16.1 DraftKings points, and he’s had three games with at least 25.5.

It’s pretty easy to get excited about his prospects against a Raiders squad without Crosby. The Raiders haven’t been a particularly good matchup for running backs this season – Bijan owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.6 – but he still ranks first on the slate in median projection and projected Plus/Minus.

Brock Bowers is the other player priced in this range, and he’s been the top tight end in fantasy this season. That’s valuable, but it’s not quite as valuable in the single-game format. You don’t necessarily need to play a tight end, so Bowers is instead compared to every other option on the slate.

Bowers has undoubtedly been a monster as a rookie. Since the team lost Davante Adams, Bowers has posted a 30% target share and a 29% air yards share. Those are elite figures for a tight end, and the target share would compare favorably to most high-end wide receivers.

However, Bowers did see a slight dip in usage last week. His route participation dipped slightly to 88%, and he had just a 15% target share vs. the Buccaneers. He ultimately caught just three passes for 49 yards, and it was his second game with 8.2 DraftKings points or fewer in his past three outings. The Raiders have another highly-drafted young tight end, and it appears as though he’s going to be a bigger part of the rotation moving forward.

The Falcons haven’t had a great defense this season, and they’re merely 28th in pass defense EPA. However, they have been better against tight ends, ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed to the position. It’s not a great spot for Bowers overall, who stands out as overpriced in our NFL Models.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

It has not been a strong stretch for Kirk Cousins of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored 6.1 DraftKings points or fewer in two of them. He hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass in those contests compared to eight interceptions, and many are wondering if the team would be better off switching to rookie Michael Penix Jr.

It’s extremely difficult to feel comfortable with Cousins at this point, but the matchup vs. the Raiders is a good one. They’re 26th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Without Crosby, the Raiders are also unlikely to put a ton of pressure on Cousins. That’s been the biggest hindrance to Cousins so far this season. When he’s been kept clean, he’s averaged 8.0 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions (per PFF). When under pressure, he dips to 7.1 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and nine interceptions. That makes this a solid buy-low opportunity.

Pairing Cousins with Drake London makes a lot of sense. London has been the team’s No. 1 receiver this season, and the two players have a correlation of +0.55. London’s fantasy production hasn’t fallen off a cliff with Cousins struggling of late, but it hasn’t been particularly impressive, either.

For the year, London has posted a 27% target share and 36% air yards share, both of which lead the team. He has at least 10 targets in three of his past four outings, so if Cousins rebounds vs. the Raiders, there’s a good chance that London is coming for the ride with him. He’s second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Robinson.

Desmond Ridder will make the start for the Raiders in a #RevengeGame. Ridder’s tenure with the Falcons was uninspiring, but he’s probably not a huge downgrade from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. At a minimum, he brings more rushing upside to the table than those guys: he’s averaged 14.5 rushing yards per game with four touchdowns in his 17 starts.

Still, he has a relatively low ceiling for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt with the Raiders this season, so he’s been pretty risk-averse with the football. He’s tallied just 239 yards on 44 throws, and while he hasn’t turned the ball over, that’s simply not going to get the job done. The matchup vs. the Falcons is elite – he leads the slate with a +5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus – but it’s still pretty hard to get excited about him.

Outside of Bowers, Jakobi Meyers has been the one constant for the Raiders this season. Since Week 4, he’s posted a 28% target share and 38% air yards share. That hasn’t led to huge production – he’s still had to catch passes from the weakest QB group in the league – but he’s been a steady producer overall. He’s scored at least 13.7 DraftKings points in five of six games since returning from injury, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them.

The matchup stands out as significantly better for Meyers than it is for Bowers. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, giving Meyers an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.9. He’s a very reasonable target at $8,400.

Darnell Mooney is the Falcons’ No. 2 receiver, and the difference between him and London is ultimately not that large. Mooney has commanded 22% of the targets and 35% of the air yards this season, and he’s coming off 23.2 DraftKings points last week. His range of outcomes is a bit wider than London’s, but his ceiling is comparable.

Mooney stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $10,500 salary comes with a slate-high 87% Bargain Rating.

The Raiders’ backfield is a bit of a question mark heading into this contest. Alexander Mattison has missed the past three games, which has allowed Sincere McCormick to take over as their top running back. He’s been extremely effective in that role, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 32 attempts.

Mattison will return to the lineup on Monday, and there’s a chance that he will resume his duties as the team’s lead running back. That said, that feels like an unlikely scenario. The Raiders are playing for nothing at this point, so it makes way more sense to get as long of a look as McCormick as possible. Ultimately, he’s the player to target. Mattison could see a handful of opportunities – including most of the pass-catching work – but it doesn’t figure to be enough to matter.

Finally, Ray-Ray McCloud is another option for the Falcons’ receiving corps. He’s been a big part of the equation all season, running a route on 93% of their dropbacks, and he had a 30% target share last week. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Falcons defense is standing out as the most undervalued option per SimLabs, with their projected ownership roughly 2.8% lower than their optimal lineup rate.
• Kyle Pitts ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – At this point, the Pitts breakout probably isn’t happening. He has just a 14% target share for the year, and he hasn’t been above 19% since Week 7. Still, he’s very affordable, and the Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. It’s a spot where using Pitts could actually pay off.
• Tyler Allgeier ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – As Robinson’s role has grown, Allgeier’s has declined. He has just a 23% carry share with minimal usage as a pass-catcher in his past five outings, so he’s best used in lineups built around a Falcons’ blowout. He could see some extra carries if they’re up big in the fourth quarter.
• Tre Tucker ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Tucker has been the Raiders’ No. 2 receiver of late, and he has a 94% route participation since the team lost Davante. He’s coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but he still managed five targets. He also had at least 13.9 DraftKings points in his two prior contests, so eh’s a reasonable target in this range.
• Ameer Abdullah ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Abdullah has been the third-down back behind McCormick, but he could lose that role with Mattison back in the lineup.
• Michael Mayer ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Mayer has had a really quiet sophomore season, but he broke out in a big way last week. He had a 71% route rate after failing to top 50% in any prior contest, and he was targeted on 31% of his routes run. That could be a one-week aberration, but Mayer is a talented player who was drafted early. It could be a sign of things to come. 
• Terrace Marshall ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Marshall has failed to make an impact since being acquired by the Raiders, but he did catch his first pass last week. It’s possible his role continues to grow.