NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 1) for 49ers vs. Bills Sunday Night Football

The Sunday Night Football matchup for Week 13 looked a lot better when it was first announced. The San Francisco 49ers will travel east to take on the Buffalo Bills, with the Bills listed as 6.5-point favorites in a game with a 44.5-point total.

It’s been a disastrous season for the 49ers. They’ve dealt with numerous key injuries, and they’ll be missing a bunch of their top options again Sunday. Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw, and Deommodore Lenoir have all been ruled out, while Brandon Aiyuk has missed most of the year. The good news is that starting quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to suit up after missing last week’s contest. They’re still facing an uphill battle, but the 49ers need to start piling up some wins if they’re going to make a return trip to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a bye, and they picked up a huge win over the Chiefs in their last outing. They’re now 9-2 for the year, putting them just one game back of KC for the top spot in the AFC. The Bills have yet to get past the Chiefs in the playoffs, but this feels like it could be the year.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Allen is having another brilliant season, and he’s emerged as the frontrunner to take home his first career MVP. From a fantasy perspective, he’s been extremely reliable of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, scoring at least 20.2 DraftKings points in each. He hasn’t popped off for a true ceiling performance in that stretch, topping out at 24.98 DraftKings points, but he’s still finished as a top-eight scorer at the position in five of his past six games. Overall, he’s averaging the fifth-most fantasy points per game at quarterback, making him a worthy DFS selection every time he takes the field.

Allen will take the field as a home favorite vs. the 49ers, which has historically been one of his best splits. He’s averaged 25.73 DraftKings points in those matchups, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +2.11 (per the Trends tool).

The matchup vs. the 49ers is also favorable. San Francisco hasn’t been nearly as strong defensively as they have in years past, ranking just 20th in points per game allowed. They haven’t been quite as poor against the pass as they have been against the run, but they’re still not a matchup that quarterbacks need to fear.

Ultimately, Allen leads the slate in virtually every projection category, including median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus. He should be the highest-owned player on the slate – especially at Captain – but he’s a really tough fade.

Christian McCaffrey is the other stud option, and he has historically been one of the best players in all of fantasy. He was an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses last season, leading the league with more than 2,000 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. He averaged 24.5 PPR points per game, making him the highest-scoring player in fantasy regardless of position.

McCaffrey missed the first eight games this season due to injury, and unfortunately, he hasn’t looked the same since joining the lineup. He’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry – down from a career-best 5.4 last season – and he’s yet to find the paint through three outings.

That’s all concerning, but it’s too early to waive the white flag with McCaffrey. That’s particularly true with his workload. He’s been one of the busiest backs in football since being activated off IR. He’s played on 88% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he’s handled 76% of the team’s rushing attempts.

Paying up for a running back as a big underdog is always scary, but McCaffrey has less risk in that split than most. He’s one of the best pass-catching running backs in football, and his work as a receiver remains elite. He owns a 19% target share through three games, and only Alvin Kamara has a higher target share at running back this season. McCaffrey has historically averaged 22.7 DraftKings points per game as a favorite, but that figure actually increases to 23.78 as a dog.

McCaffrey has yet to return positive value this season, but it seems like it’s just a matter of time. The matchup vs. the Bills is far from ideal, but he’s simply too talented to struggle like this forever.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

James Cook is the other running back in this contest, and he stands out as having one of the best matchups on the slate. San Francisco is merely 22nd in rush defense EPA, and they allowed Josh Jacobs to run all over them last week. Overall, they’ve allowed the 13th-most PPR points per game to the position, and Cook leads all players in Opponent Plus/Minus.

That said, Cook does have some red flags. The team’s RB usage in their last game was a big concern, with three different players logging at least a 21% snap share. Cook was on the field for just 38% of the team’s snaps, and he handled just 35% of the team’s carries.

Still, that game stands out as an outlier. He’s not one of the best backs in the league from a utilization standpoint, but he still has 56% of the team’s carries for the year. He was at 63% two games ago, so it’s possible he will return to his usual workload this week.

One area where Cook has thrived this season is around the goal line. He has 11 touchdowns in his past nine games, which is five more than he had in 17 games last year. Allen is being used way less frequently as a goal-line hammer – he has just 20% of the carries from inside the five-yard line – and Cook has been the biggest beneficiary. That gives him solid upside in an above-average matchup, especially with the Bills favored by nearly a touchdown.

Purdy will always have his doubters; such is life for Mr. Irrelevant. However, he shouldn’t have any doubters from a fantasy perspective. All he’s done since taking over as the 49ers’ starting quarterback is put up numbers. He’s seventh at the position in fantasy points per game this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. He’s routinely outscored Allen over that time frame, yet he’s available at nearly $2,000 less.

Purdy will have his hands full vs. the Bills, and he has historically been slightly worse on the road than at home. Still, this just feels like too cheap of a price tag for a QB who has consistently delivered for fantasy players.

Deebo Samuel has also dealt with some injuries this season, which has put a damper on his fantasy value. He’s also failed to see the spike in opportunities that some were hoping for following the injury to Aiyuk. He’s posted just a 15% target share and 16% air-yards share since Aiyuk went down, which is not what you’d expect to see for a $9,000 receiver.

Of course, Samuel isn’t just a receiver. He’s more of a Swiss Army Knife, and he’s typically good for a handful of carries each game. That isn’t necessarily a great thing for his fantasy stock, since a reception is inherently more valuable than a carry, but it does give him some increased opportunities to score touchdowns. Samuel has just two scores on the year, but PFF credits him with closer to four expected touchdowns. He could be due for some positive regression in that department moving forward.

That said, it’s hard to get excited about Deebo at his current price tag. He’s a stronger option on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with an 87% Bargain Rating.

George Kittle is the other superstar pass catcher for the 49ers, but like Samuel, he seems overpriced on this slate. His role has been slightly better than Samuel’s since Aiyuk went down with a 19% target share and 27% air-yards share – but he’s still lacking a bit in those areas.

However, Kittle has made up for it with his work in the red zone. He’s caught a touchdown in three straight games, and he has 75% of the team’s endzone targets over that time frame. He’s already amassed more touchdowns than he did in 16 games last season, and it doesn’t feel particularly fluky: his 6.2 expected touchdowns is the top mark among tight ends this season.

Khalil Shakir has been the Bills’ top pass catcher this season. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run, and his role has continued to increase as the year has progressed. Since Week 7, Shakir has had a 76% route participation and a 26% target share.

The only downside with Shakir is that he doesn’t get a ton of downfield targets. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 4.0 yards, which does cap his upside. He’s cracked the top 15 at the position just once this season, and he’s never finished better than ninth. That makes him a low-risk, low-reward type of option.

Amari Cooper was expected to take over the top receiver role in Buffalo after being acquired from the Browns before the trade deadline. However, he’s yet to really get rolling. He’s yet to have greater than a 66% route participation, and he missed some time with an injury. In his return to the lineup last week, he ran a route on just 53% of the team’s dropbacks and saw just an 8% target share.

Still, there should be opportunities for Cooper’s role to increase moving forward. It remains to be seen if that happens this week vs. the 49ers, but he has historically been one of the better receivers in football.

Jauan Jennings entered the year as the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver, and he was not expected to do much for a juggernaut offense. However, he has stepped into the No. 1 receiver role following the injury to Aiyuk. Since returning from an injury of his own in Week 10, Jennings has racked up a massive 33% target share, and he has two finishes as a top-14 PPR receiver. Jennings also erupted in Week 3, so he’s had plenty of fantasy viability when in the lineup.

Ultimately, the only reason Jennings isn’t more expensive than Samuel and Kittle at the moment is the name value. He’s projected for more fantasy points than both in our NFL Models, making him the clear top choice of the trio.

Finally, Keon Coleman is the wild card in the Bills’ passing attack. He’s posted a 15% target share when in the lineup this season, but we haven’t seen him since Week 9. That means we’ve yet to really see him play alongside Cooper. That will likely have a negative impact on him overall, which makes him overpriced at his current salary. There’s also a chance that Coleman doesn’t suit up once again; he’s officially questionable for Sunday Night Football.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Jake Moody stands out as the best source of leverage of the bunch, with his projected ownership checking in below his optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
• Ricky Pearsall ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Pearsall hasn’t had a catch in back-to-back games, and he didn’t see a single target last week vs. the Packers. However, that game was without Purdy, and he has seen an uptick in opportunities of late.
• Curtis Samuel ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Samuel has seen a boost in value with the Bills’ receiving corps banged up of late. He would be worth consideration if Coleman is out again, but he’s probably overpriced if he returns to action.
• Dawson Knox ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Dalton Kincaid remains out for the Bills, leaving Knox as their TE1. Knox had six targets in that role last week, and he’s historically provided value as Allen’s top option at the position. He’s one of the stronger options in this price range.
• Mack Hollins ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Hollins continues to see plenty of snaps for the Bills, but he’s been a peripheral option in the passing attack. Still, his 10% target share for the year keeps him on the radar.
• Ty Johnson ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Johnson saw the most snaps at RB for the Bills last week, and he’s had some value as a pass-catcher all season.
• Ray Davis ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Davis also got in the mix at RB vs. the Chiefs, though he finished with just five carries. He’s best used in lineup constructions built around a Bills’ blowout win.
• Quintin Morris ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Morris becomes the TE2 in Buffalo with Kincaid sidelined. He had a 27% route participation last week, but he saw just one target.