NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Titans-Packers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Titans vs. Packers Showdown

Thursday night brings us a matchup from chilly Green Bay with temperatures in the low 20s and snow possible. On top of that, we get two middling offenses facing off against above-average defenses. The scoring environment is reflected in the lowly 41-point total, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game go under.

This is a fantastic spot on paper for Derrick Henry as the Packers rank just 30th in rushing DVOA, setting this up as a perfect opportunity to let the Big Dog eat. Henry ranks fifth in the league in terms of explosive runs, and the Packers are giving them up at the 4th highest rate. He deserves to be the highest-owned Captain this week.

On the flip side, the Titans’ defense has been more vulnerable through the air, with teams throwing on them at the highest rate in the league. Last week’s eruption figures to swing ownership to new toy Christian Watson, who ended up on the right side of variance with three scores on four catches. I’d rather invest in Allen Lazard, who has consistently proven to be Rodgers’ favorite target, to bounce back as the team’s true number 1 option.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Aaron Rodgers  with at least two Packers pass-catchers (Aaron Jones counts)
• Pair Captain Ryan Tannehill  with at least two Titans pass-catchers
• Max one Titans WR in lineups that do not include Tannehill
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max one Samori Toure and Sammy Watkins
• Max one Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Derrick Henry
• Aaron Jones

Secondary Targets

• Allen Lazard
• Christian Watson

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Robert Tonyan
• Aaron Rodgers
• AJ Dillon
• Titans Defense
• Packers Defense
• Treylon Burks
• Ryan Tannehill
• Mason Crosby