NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Saints-Buccaneers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Saints vs. Buccaneers Showdown

Tom Brady enters Monday night coming off back-to-back multiple touchdown games for just the first time this season. The Bucs continue to air it out, as their run game has failed to be anything more than pedestrian. They now face a tough Saints defense in a game that surprisingly has NFC South implications.

I think there might be a propensity to overlook the Saints here, who have several underpriced options. Rashid Shaheed has flashed big play ability and logged a snap rate just north of 50% for the first time all season last week. He figures to see several schemed-up plays and is just $1400. Adam Trautman steps into a full-time role at tight end for just $1200, with Juwan Johnson set to miss with an ankle injury. Chris Olave is an electric playmaker with the upside to match any player on the slate despite five guys priced ahead of him. I don’t even mind coming in a little overweight on the Saints defense this week.

Typically the most common build on Draftkings features 4 players from the favored team and 2 from the underdog, but the pricing makes this a compelling spot to flip that build Monday night.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Andy Dalton with at least two Saints pass-catchers (Kamara counts)
• Pair Captain Tom Brady with at least two Bucs pass-catchers (Rachaad White counts)
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team
• In lineups with Leonard Fournette, decrease Rachaad White by 15%

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two of Patriots wide receivers
• Max one Cameron Brate and Cade Otton

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Chris Olave
• Chris Godwin
• Alvin Kamara
• Mike Evans

Secondary Targets 

• Rachaad White
• Tom Brady

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Andy Dalton
• Taysom Hill
• Leonard Fournette
• Bucs Defense