NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Ravens-Saints

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Ravens vs. Saints Showdown

I’m not quite sure where the chalk is going to condense on this slate, but I do have two angles that I think are important in how it plays out

First, without Mark Ingram, we saw Taysom Hill’s role continue to increase. He played a season-high 36% of snaps and saw 10 rushes, two targets, and a pass attempt. He only posted 8.28 DK points but was a touchdown away from an optimal-worthy score. Assuming he doesn’t get too popular, I think Hill is a great play with a price tag that will hopefully keep his ownership in check,

Second, Demarcus Robinson is projecting well after a solid performance in relief last week. However, he suffered a late week downgrade to DNP due to a groin injury which is always an ominous sign. Even if he is active, I want no parts of the play. I am expecting Duvernay to dominate looks out wide, with Proche running as the number two option on the perimeter.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Lamar Jackson with at least two Ravens pass catchers
• Pair Captain Andy Dalton  with at least two Saints pass catchers (Kamara Counts)
• Decrease Alvin Kamara in lineups that contain Taysom Hill at Captain
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

Max two kickers and defenses.

Max 2 of Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, Kenyan Drake

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Alvin Kamara
• Lamar Jackson
• Chris Olave

Secondary Targets

• Isaiah Likely
• Devin Duvernay
• Taysom Hill

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Kenyan Drake
• Justin Tucker