NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Falcons-Panthers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Falcons vs. Panthers Showdown

The combination of aggressive pricing with the overall poor quality of fantasy players on this slate is going to provide some unique angles. First of all, it is going to be more important on this slate than most to use some smart rules and groups, as you’ll notice the overall value per player is much lower than a typical slate. I am going to be making more manual adjustments to projections than usual, as even small changes will have more of an impact on roster construction this week.

I actually like this as a bounce-back spot for PJ Walker and the Panthers’ pass-catchers. Walker has been extremely volatile, but this Falcons defense has been truly terrible in all phases of the game. DJ Moore is likely to be appropriately owned just due to his raw projection that will likely lead the slate for non-quarterbacks. However, Walker might be lower owned due to playing time concerns after being benched last week.

Terrace Marshall also seems unlikely to project well enough to make it into many lineups, but we have seen him post scores in back-to-back weeks that would likely get him into optimal lineups. I’m choosing to approach this game assuming the Panthers score at least three touchdowns and manually boosting the projection of Moore, Walker, and Marshall to account for that.

On the flip side, the Panthers have been abysmal against the run, giving up the third-most fantasy production to opposing running backs. That figures to play right into the hands of the Falcons’ game plan as they enter this week 30th in Pass Rate over Expectation.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier should both see big workloads, and I don’t mind manually increasing each of their projections to get them into more lineups.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Marcus Mariota with at least one Falcons pass-catcher
• Pair Captain PJ Walker with at least two Panthers pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Marcus Mariota with at most one Falcons running back
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
• Decrease Cordarrelle Patterson in lineups with Tyler Allgeier at Captain

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max 2 of Caleb Huntley, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson
• Max 1 of Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas
• Max 1 of Damiere Byrd and Khadarel Hodge

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• DJ Moore
• Cordarrelle Patterson

Secondary Targets

• Marcus Mariota
• D’Onta Foreman
• Terrace Marshall Jr.
• Kyle Pitts

Large-Field GPP Fliers (Much more viable than usual)

• Tyler Allgeier
• PJ Walker
• Drake London
• Chubba Hubbard
• Damiere Byrd