NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Eagles-Texans

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Eagles vs. Texans Showdown

This line opened with the Eagles at -9.5 and has been bet up throughout the week, with the Eagles now 14-point favorites. Making matters worse, disgruntled No. 1 wide receiver Brandin Cooks looks likely to miss for the Texans. Optimal lineups are likely to be flooded with cheap Texans wide receivers and tight ends popping up as values in Cooks’ absence. I still like getting to stud rookie Dameon Pierce, who even took over the pass game role last week. Feeding Pierce looks like the Texans’ only shot at keeping this competitive.

My favorite angle that I am hoping goes overlooked with all of the value opening up involves the Eagles’ willingness to rotate backs, especially in blowouts. Miles Sanders is in a great spot, but his injury history has led the Eagles to limit his snaps whenever possible. Last week we saw Boston Scott rotate in for 35% of snaps and was the featured back during garbage time. At just $1800, I like using Scott as a low-owned piece in lineups that tell a story of an Eagles blowout, as a touchdown scored is almost sure to boost him into optimal lineups.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Jalen Hurts with at least one Eagles pass catcher
• No Captain Davis Mills for me, but I would pair him with two Texans pass catchers
• Pair Captain AJ Brown with at most one of Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert

Player Groups

Max two kickers and defenses.

Max two of Boston Scott, Miles Sanders, and Kenneth Gainwell

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Jalen Hurts
• AJ Brown
• Miles Sanders

Secondary Targets

• Dameon Pierce
• Devonta Smith

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Dallas Goedert
• Eagles Defense
• Phillip Dorsett
• Chris Moore