NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Cowboys-Titans

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Cowboys vs. Titans Showdown

This time of year, it is important to understand motivations. Unfortunately, neither team has much to play for on Thursday night. The Titans have already declared their intentions, with 11 players in total looking unlikely to play, as only next week’s game against the Jaguars matters for playoff purposes.

Similarly, the Cowboys also have little to play for, with only a minimal chance of improving their playoff position in the next two weeks. I’m expecting Tony Pollard to sit and Malik Davis to see a significant role at just $200. Ezekiel Elliott has battled several injuries this season, so I imagine Dallas will jump at the chance to get him fresh for the postseason.

Malik Willis has been so dreadful this year that I find it hard to have interest in any Titans outside of Hassan Haskins. It’s obvious, but I am going to be loading up on Dallas across the board with no attention to minimum salary this week. I’m comfortable with cheap options like Davis and Haskins, which should result in builds that leave a significant amount on the table.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap doesn’t matter

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Dak Prescott with at least two Cowboys pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Malik Willis with at least one Titans pass-catcher
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• I’m very likely to implement max 1 Titans WR in all lineups

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• CeeDee Lamb
• Dak Prescott
• Ezekiel Elliot

Secondary Targets 

• Michael Gallup
• Dalton Schultz
• Hassan Haskins
• Malik Willis

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Malik Davis
• Cowboys D
• Chig Okonkwo