NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Commanders-Eagles

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Commanders vs. Eagles Showdown

I’m looking to take the path of least resistance on Monday night. While the Commanders played well in their first matchup, they still lost by 16 and face an uphill battle as big road underdogs.

Taylor Heinicke has shown real chemistry with Terry McLaurin, who has seen 28% of targets since Heinicke took over. However, the Eagles defense has been elite against No. 1 outside receivers this year, with studs Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter. The Eagles have already ruled out starting slot corner Avonte Maddox, setting up Curtis Samuel for a plus matchup.

The Commanders are also without J.D. McKissic, which has led to Antonio Gibson inheriting a valuable role as the main pass-catching back while also seeing a share of base work. With the Commanders likely to be trailing, we should see Gibson flirt with double-digit carries with five-plus target upside.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Jalen Hurts with at least one Eagles pass-catcher
• Pair Captain Taylor Heinicke  with at least two Commanders pass-catchers (Gibson Counts)
• Decrease Miles Sanders in lineups that contain Jalen Hurts at Captain
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max 2 of Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Jalen Hurts
• AJ Brown

Secondary Targets

• Devonta Smith
• Curtis Samuel
• Antonio Gibson
• Terry McLaurin

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Dallas Goedert
• Taylor Heinicke
• Eagles Defense