NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Commanders-Bears

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer, and Matt LaMarca dives deep into every player.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Commanders vs. Bears Showdown

This week’s Thursday night showdown features a contest tied for the second-lowest total of the season at just 38. In these sorts of games, we tend to see defenses and kickers go overplayed relative to the expected optimal percentage. We have seen defenses and kickers hit at an alarming rate so far this season, even in higher total games.

I suspect this is more noise than signal, but it bears watching going forward. An underweight stance on these positions is scary on a slate where points are at a premium, but it does provide good leverage.

Rules will need to be less strict than usual to account for the game environment, which I will outline below. I do feel like the quarterbacks on this slate have a better floor/ceiling combo than usual as compared to their teammates because of Wentz’s passing volume and Fields’ ability to produce with his legs.

Finally, Velus Jones Jr scored on just two snaps last week. Perhaps he gets more involved with schemed touches this week with how poorly the WR3 options ahead of him have played.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Darnell Mooney with Justin Fields
• Pair Justin Fields with at least one of Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, Cole Kmet, Dante Pettis, Velus Jones Jr
• Pair Carson Wentz with at least 1 of Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Cam Sims, Dyami Brown
• Pair Captain Terry McLaurin with Carson Wentz

Player Groups

I’m willing to stretch to a max of three kickers and defenses, though max two is preferred.

• Max 1 of Dante Pettis, Velus Jones Jr, Ihmir Smith-Marsette
• Max 1 of Dyami Brown (if active), Cam Sims
• Max 2 of J.D. McKissic, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• David Montgomery
• Justin Fields
• Curtis Samuel
• Terry McClaurin

Secondary Targets

• Darnell Mooney
• Carson Wentz

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Brian Robinson
• Bears Defense
• Commanders Defense
• Antonio Gibson