NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Colts vs. Broncos

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Colts vs. Broncos Showdown

It feels weird to say, but in 2022 we have a game where the most important player (from a Showdown perspective at least) is Phillip Lindsay. At just $400, Lindsay figures to be the first player added to most lineups on Thursday night.

While he seems like a cash game lock, I want to point out the downside case for this play.

1. Preseason usage suggested that the Colts were comfortable using Nyheim Hines in a bell-cow type of role.
2. The projected game script has the Colts playing from behind on the road.
3. Salaries are overall more affordable than most slates.
4. We have a number of viable low-cost plays this week, with Eric Saubert and Kendall Hinton below $2,000 and well underpriced for their roles, and Hines just too cheap as this week’s starter.

I will certainly play Lindsay, but I will be manually lowering his projection this week, as I think 30 yards rushing and one reception for 10 yards is well within his range of outcomes and comes with just five DraftKings points; it may be hard for that kind of score to end up in the optimal lineup with pricing on this slate.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

I am pairing Captain Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton with Russell Wilson in the flex. I’m not so sure a strict pairing of Matt Ryan with Captain Michael Pittman is a must, but I would at least boost Ryan’s projection in those lineups.

I will be creating a rule to significantly negatively boost Mike Boone’s projection in lineups with Melvin Gordon at Captain.

I am not creating a rule for Lindsay in Hines Captain lineups. By manually decreasing his projection he should naturally appear in fewer lineups due to less need for salary savers in these lineups given Hines’ cheaper tag.

Remember to pair wide receiver Captains with at most one pass catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

The standard rule of max two kickers and defenses applies.

Max 1 of Eric Saubert, Albert Okwuegbunam, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Beck.

Max 1 of Ashton Dulin, Parris Campbell.

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Courtland Sutton
• Nyheim Hines
• Melvin Gordon
• Michael Pittman

Secondary Targets

• Jerry Jeudy

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Russ Wilson
• Phillip Lindsay (you can play all of the highest-priced player in this lineup, but don’t do it. It WILL be duped probably hundreds of times)