NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer and be sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s in-depth Showdown breakdown for this game.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs Showdown

While I think it is important not to overreact to a one-game sample, I also think it is important to constantly reassess each situation as we get more information. That said, I am going to look to take a stand on Mecole Hardman in this matchup.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the Chiefs in routes run but saw his aDOT sink to 5.5 as the team used him more as an underneath/intermediate option. Hardman out-targeted Valdes-Scantling despite playing fewer snaps, saw an aDOT of 14.3 and stepped into a similar route tree to the one Tyreek Hill left behind.

I like taking shots on this high-upside role in what figures to be a shootout between two pass-heavy teams.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 94%

Player Correlations

Full disclosure: I am unlikely to use many (if any) rules this week. All of the pass-catching options look good on paper, which creates so many possible combinations that I don’t want to group anything out. That being said, here are a couple I will consider.

This is a pretty nice bounce-back spot for Ekeler coming off a light workload and needing to step up and help fill the receiving void left by Keenan Allen. Considering his upside likely lies through the receiving game and the number of studs on the other side of this game, it seems highly unlikely that all of them could appear in the winning lineup outside of a complete blowout by the Chargers.

When considering the Captain QB stack with at least two pass-catchers, I want to ensure my lineup includes at least one of the top dogs from the KC offense. I’m not as worried about this on the Chargers side, given Ekeler’s involvement in the pass game and Mike Williams’ week-to-week volatility.

Player Groups

The standard rule of max two kickers and defenses applies.

Max 1 ancillary piece from each team. For the Chargers, this includes Sony Michel, Joshua Kelley, Jalen Guyton, and Tre McKitty. For the Chiefs, this includes Sky Moore, Jody Fortson, and Noah Gray.

I anticipate having very little exposure to anyone in this group.

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

• Austin Ekeler
• Patrick Mahomes
• Travis Kelce
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Justin Herbert
• Mike Williams
• Mecole Hardman (large-field GPPs)
• Clyde Edwards- Helaire (large-field GPPs)
• Joshua Palmer (large-field GPPs)