NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in 49ers-Seahawks

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in 49ers vs. Seahawks Showdown

Despite this being a road game in Seattle, this situation is really wheels up for the 49ers’ run game. Christian McCaffrey has found his footing in this offense, and the 49ers will need to lean on him with no Deebo Samuel, and 7th-round rookie Brock Purdy banged up on a short week. The 49ers never need an excuse to run the ball, but the Seahawks’ improved secondary provides one, as teams have thrown the ball just 56% of the time against them (fifth-lowest in the league).

CMC will be in every lineup I build on Thursday in Captain or flex as I cross my fingers for something resembling a normal showdown slate after the earlier Rhamondre Stevenson, which was symbolic of a year of odd island games.

While I expect this game to play somewhat competitively with several good plays on both sides, in GPPs, I like making a handful of lineups with CMC and Jordan Mason. Mason is overpriced given his role, but if this game plays out as either a dominant 49ers win or a low-scoring rock fight, then Mason would have a real shot at hitting optimals.

In more conventional lineups, I plan to boost George Kittle’s projection, as I expect most to flock to Brandon Aiyuk leading Kittle to come in low-owned relative to his ceiling.

I have respect for the Seahawks’ secondary group, which also helps Kittle’s outlook.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Brock Purdy with at least two 49ers pass-catchers (CMC counts)
• Pair Captain Geno Smith with at least two Seahawks pass-catchers, including at least 1\one of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf
• When lineups include Captain McCaffrey and flex Jordan Mason, use increase 49ers Defense by 15%
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two Patriots wide receivers

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Christian McCaffrey

Secondary Targets 

• Tyler Lockett
• Brandon Aiyuk
• DK Metcalf
• George Kittle

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• • Kenneth Walker
  • Geno Smith
  • 49ers Defense