Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer and be sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s in-depth Showdown breakdown for this game.
My Favorite Angle in Bills vs. Rams Showdown
Isaiah McKenzie — unless we get news that he is expected to be limited, McKenzie is just WAY too cheap for his projected role. We are looking at the starting slot receiver in a prolific passing offense for less than $3,000, and currently, ownership projections look pretty modest.
I am likely to come in way overweight on a healthy McKenzie to help me build solid lineups around the high-end Captain options.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for Thursday. For more context on optimizer rules and showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 94%
Player Correlations
Alpha wide receivers require so much volume to be the optimal Captain that they infrequently appear with more than one pass-catcher from the same team. Pricing inefficiencies make it reasonable to leave McKenzie, Skowronek, and Atwell out of these rules.
Expensive quarterbacks need to be ending drives with touchdowns if they are going to be the optimal Captain, which makes kickers a less desirable pairing.
Player Groups
It seems unlikely that more than one running back per team has a path to reaching the optimal this week. I will say that Zack Moss seems like a pretty sneaky play that is going completely ignored.
He would appear to be the goal-line back, and at only $3,000 he has a real chance to be optimal if he gets in the end zone.
Captain Pool
I think I am going to keep my Captain pool tight this week. There is enough value to fit in the studs that are by far the most likely to be the optimal Captain.
- Josh Allen
- Stef Diggs
- Matthew Stafford
- Cooper Kupp
- Gabe Davis
