Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Lions vs. Chiefs Showdown
The NFL is back! We’re lucky to have a fun, high-octane matchup to start the NFL DFS Showdown season.
Sporting by far the highest total of the week at 54, we should expect plenty of scoring between two good offenses. Complicating matters, however, is the current uncertainty regarding the Chiefs’ pass-catchers. At the time of this writing, Travis Kelce is still very much questionable to suit up for Thursday’s contest.
Kansas City has not provided any additional details regarding Kelce’s knee hyperextension, but we know that these injuries are typically accompanied by a decent amount of swelling and often a bone bruise requiring at least a week to recover. If Kelce is healthy enough to go, he is in an incredible spot against a Lions defense that ranked 28th or worse against tight ends last year, depending on the source that you reference.
At the same time, the Chiefs could very well have seven receivers active on Thursday, which may not sound like a lot until you realize that most teams will only dress 4-5 on game days.
This brings about a great deal of uncertainty especially considering the three primary options (Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling) are not significant target earners.
If Kelce is out, I think the Lions pass-catchers become much more interesting as Captain options, while Chiefs receivers all become interesting FLEX options.
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Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Patrick Mahomes with at least two Chiefs pass-catchers
- Pair Captain Jared Goff with at least two Lions pass-catcher
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team
- In lineups with Captain David Montgomery decrease Jahmyr Gibbs by 15%
Player Groups
- Max two kickers and defenses.
- I’m very likely to implement max 3 Chiefs WR/TE
Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Travis Kelce (if healthy)
- Amon-Ra St Brown
- Patrick Mahomes
- Jahmyr Gibbs
Secondary Targets
- Jared Goff
- Skyy Moore
- David Montgomery
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Noah Gray (if no Kelce)
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Sam LaPorta
- Kalif Raymond
- Isiah Pacheco
- Jerick McKinnon
- Kadarius Toney
- Justin Watson
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
