NFL DFS Showdown: FantasyLabs Simulations and Correlation Metrics for Broncos vs. Seahawks

Pearson Correlation Chart 

What is it?

Pearson correlation is a value (ranging from -1 to 1) representing the strength of a linear relationship between two numeric variables. In the below image, I’ve charted every two-player fantasy point combination (minimum mean projection of four points) ahead of the Monday night football game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks.

Each numeric value in the chart represents how correlated each player’s performance is to their matching player based on thousands of simulations run by the FantasyLabs simulation engine.

The higher the number, the better the correlation. The goal of this chart is to help us quickly identify correlations between players to aid in lineup construction for the showdown slate.

NFL DFS Showdown Correlations That Stand Out

Positive:

1. Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton (.41)
2. Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf (.39)
3. Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett (.36)
4. Russell Wilson and Jerry Jeudy (.35)
5. Russell Wilson and Albert Okwuegbunam (.34)
6. Geno Smith and Noah Fant (.33)

Nothing too surprising here, as the top six correlations are the quarterbacks and their pass-catchers. This further drives home the point that captain quarterbacks should be paired with at least two pass-catchers from the same team, as these values are highly correlated.

We also should be pairing captain pass catchers with their quarterbacks, as the correlation is strong.

What I did find particularly interesting is the correlation between both quarterbacks and their team’s kickers. While much lower than the correlation between their pass-catchers, both kickers came in right around the .2 number.

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this in lineups that will feature equal players from both teams (3-3 builds). However, for builds that contain a quarterback in a 4-2 approach or a 5-1 onslaught, the kicker should absolutely be considered to round out your rosters.

NFL DFS Showdown Rules to Consider

In terms of making sure your lineups are constructed to your desired preferences, the FantasyLabs Lineup Optimizer is the best in the industry.

With a robust set of custom rules, we can use the above data to ensure we maximize the correlation in our lineups.

I have listed a set of rules below that are based on the correlation chart above and should give you a tangible edge Monday night.

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Pair lineups that feature Captain Russell Wilson with at least two of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam, and KJ Hamler.

This rule will ensure that lineups betting on a ceiling game from Russell Wilson will be put in the optimal position to take down first place if that scenario plays out.

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Pair lineups that feature Captain Geno Smith with at least two of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant.

This rule will ensure that lineups betting on a ceiling game from Geno Smith will be put in the optimal position to take down first place if that scenario plays out.

When lineups include Russell Wilson increase Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy’s projection by 20%.

This rule will tell the optimizer to increase the projections of the listed players to increase the chance they land in lineups with Russell Wilson. Again, we want to maximize correlation based on the numbers listed in the chart. Sutton and Jeudy have the highest correlation to Russell Wilson of the available Broncos pass catchers.

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When lineups include Geno Smith increase DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s projection by 20%.

The same reasoning as the Russell Wilson rule above — let’s try to maximize correlation. If Geno Smith ends up in the optimal lineup, there’s a good chance he’s bringing one of these two along with him.

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Use these rules, and/or create some of your own, by using the FantasyLabs Lineup Optimizer for the game on Monday.

Remember to always build your lineups to match the contest size you are in. Larger field contests will require more unique rules and lineup configurations to avoid lineup duplication. Smaller field contests require less uniqueness and, therefore more of a focus on overall lineup construction to maximize expected value.

Good luck!