Here’s a breakdown of the two NFL Conference Championship Showdown slates featuring the Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints at 3:05 p.m. ET and New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Cash Game Strategy
DraftKings
If you go with Alvin Kamara in the Captain spot there’s enough salary to fit all of Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks if you punt the sixth slot with Josh Hill, who will start at tight end with Ben Watson (illness) out.
FanDuel
Goff projects for three points more than Gurley here, so going Brees-Kamara-Goff-Mark Ingram-Josh Hill makes the most sense.
Tournament Strategy
Correlations
- With the Saints missing a couple of their band of others, it’s worth noting that even when you exclude the games Ingram missed, the Saints have a relatively strong RB1-WR1 correlation (0.50, per our NFL Correlations Dashboard). Kamara and Michael Thomas combined for 327 total yards and four touchdowns when these teams met in Week 9.
- Goff has a very strong correlation with the opposing QB (0.84), but Brees’ is weak (0.16). In fact, Saints opposing passers have a stronger correlation with Thomas (0.34) and Kamara (0.23) than Brees.
Captain/MVP
- In order of projected ceiling, our DK Showdown Models rank Kamara first followed by Thomas, Gurley, Brees, Goff, Woods, Ginn, Cooks, Reynolds, ingram, and Anderson.
Core Groups
- Kamara-Thomas: Capable of going off with or without Brees.
- Gurley-Anderson: Could end up finishing 1-2 on the Rams in touches.
Leverage
- C.J. Anderson is going to be game-script dependent — just 18% of his snaps came on passing downs last week — but if the game stays close, he could feast on a Saints defense that earned its only below-average ranking in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards allowed on runs up the middle (17th; 4.41) and just lost defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (Achilles, IR). Anderson handled both Rams backfield carries inside the five-yard line last week against Dallas.
- Ingram probably doesn’t have as much raw carry upside as Anderson, but does have solid 15-touch upside and offers nice leverage on his more expensive and highly-owned teammates, Brees, Kamara and Thomas.
Dart Throws
- PFF charged Eli Apple with a 7-144-1 line allowed in coverage on 10 targets when these teams met in Week 9, and Apple could be a target again in what projects to be a lot of single coverage on Reynolds.
- Tre’Quan Smith ran 10 routes last week and will likely operate as the No. 3 receiver. If you’re looking for a pivot, jack-of-all-trades Taysom Hill ran nine routes and played 19 offensive snaps all last week, two fewer than Hill. From a usage-based perspective, Taysom probably has more upside than Tommylee Lewis, who played only four snaps last week, or Austin Carr, who is technically the best one-for-one replacement in the slot but played zero snaps last week.
- Dan Arnold was a healthy scratch last week but is a better pivot off Josh Hill than H-back Garrett Griffin, if active. Arnold has averaged 2.5 targets over his past six active games.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Cash Game Strategy
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes has the highest projected ceiling in our DK Showdown Models, and he fits in the Captain spot with Tom Brady, Damien Williams, James White and Sony Michel if you punt the final spot with James Develin, who has five touches inside the five-yard line this season and is essentially the cheapest source of a potential dart-throw touchdown.
FanDuel
On FanDuel you can get Mahomes in along with Brady and Williams, but unfortunately there’s not enough for New England’s backs. Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan are a solid 4-5 at only $7,500 each, though, especially if game script ends up flipping from last week’s wire-to-were domination of the Chargers.
Tournament Strategy
Correlations
- Since Julian Edelman returned, the Patriots have negative correlations at WR1-RB2 (-0.22), WR1-WR2 (-0.35) and WR1-TE1 (-0.22). The team’s RB1-RB2 correlation is also negative over that span (-0.16).
- Mahomes has a 0.69 correlation to the opposing QB; Brady’s is 0.49.
- Largely thanks to being capable of scoring not just through the air, but also on the ground or in the return game, Tyreek Hill has negative or non-correlation with all of his starting teammates, including a -0.29 with Travis Kelce.
Captain/MVP
- After Mahomes, our Models rank projected ceilings as Damien Williams, Hill, Brady, Edelman, Kelce, White, and Sammy Watkins. Guaranteed prize pool entrants tend to focus more on the passing game for the 1.5x spot, so Williams provides the best mix of ownership and upside as the home favorite’s back and potential poison that Belichick chooses as he attempts to slow down Mahomes. The 1.5x premium on DraftKings also gives White and Watkins some solid price vs. ownership appeal in this spot.
Core Groups
- Mahomes-Williams: To potentially capture all of the home favorite’s touchdowns.
- Williams-Brady: If New England ends up playing the majority of the game from behind.
- Michel-Mahomes: If the game script ends up playing out the opposite of expected.
Leverage
- Michel is on the wrong side of his splits — I bet the under on his rushing-yardage prop where I saw it at 80-plus — but he’s still in a prime leverage spot as an underdog back with 20-touch upside.
Dart Throws
- Phillip Dorsett has had five games with at least four catches, including each of the past two weeks with Josh Gordon (personal) out.
- Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging 2.25 targets, 1.25 carries and 1.25 kick returns over his past four games.
- Chris Conley averages only 2.6 targets per game in Watkins’ last five games but is of increased importance since he still ran 35 routes last week and is likely to be the receiver Belichick dares Kansas City to feature.
Let’s get this shmoney!
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured above: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and running back Damien Williams (26)
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
