NFL DFS is a game of conviction, and below you’ll find a list of flag plants that our panel of DFS analysts are high on for Week 5.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Let’s get right into it.
Week 5 NFL DFS Flag Plants
Sean Koerner: Director of Predictive Analytics for Action Network
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel) (Cash/GPP)
Stevenson’s stock has been on the rise as he has been splitting early down work with Damien Harris while continuing to dominate passing down work. We could see Stevenson leapfrog Harris on early downs in the coming weeks and become more of a true workhorse back. Even if that doesn’t come to fruition this week, I still love his floor/ceiling combo in a game where the Patriots will likely lean on the run with Bailey Zappe under center.
Stevenson saw a team-high four targets from Zappe once he took over for the injured Brian Hoyer last week, so he could continue to lean on check-downs to Stevenson again this week. It’s also a juicy matchup against a Lions matchup that ranks dead last in DVOA.
Stevenson has a solid floor/ceiling combo this week and is way too cheap on most sites. I like him in all formats this week.
Chris Raybon: Action Network Analyst
Chris Godwin ($5,900 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel) (Cash/GPP)
Finally healthy, Godwin ran a route on 85% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks last week, posting a 7/59/0 line on 10 targets, and does not carry an injury designation this week.
In his last game against the Falcons, he went off for 15 catches and 143 yards. In four games against the Falcons since Brady joined the team, Godwin is averaging 7.0 receptions, 94.0 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Nick Giffen: Predictive Analyst at Action Network
Terry McLaurin ($6,200 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel) (GPP)
This is an amazing situation for McLaurin all around.
McLaurin has run the fourth most routes in the league and third most of anyone on this slate.
With Jahan Dotson ruled out, 26.2% share of the team’s air yards are now up for grabs. I’d expect plenty of that to go to the receiver who’s run more routes than nearly anyone else in the league
McLaurin also stands to benefit as the other deep threat in the offense. Tennesse ranks 30th in defensive DVOA on targets to the left and right thirds of the field. Given that McLaurin runs about 80% of his routes on the outside, that should play to his strengths.
Even better, the Titans rank dead last in deep ball DVOA. With the seventh-highest average depth of target.
McLaurin could be in for a monster day.
Justin Bailey: FantasyLabs Senior Editor
Nick Chubb ($8,000 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) (GPP)
Nick Chubb has a ceiling projection within two points of Alvin Kamara with my inputs, but his ownership projection is nearly 16% less than Kamara’s. Chubb continues to produce every single week, but his ownership never reflects his production (Steelers game ownership is from a Showdown slate):
Chubb has as much multi-touchdown GPP-winning upside as any running back on any given slate. He currently has the fourth-highest Leverage Score in our Player Models.
Notorious: RotoGrinders Analyst
A.J. Brown ($7,500 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel) (Cash/GPP)
The Eagles have been dominant all season and haven’t had to do much in the second half of their games. In fact, Jalen Hurts has thrown the ball less than 40 times in the second half this season, yet he has still averaged 27 DK / 26 FD points per game.
Imagine the type of numbers he can put up in a competitive game. I’m not saying the Cardinals will be the team to push the Eagles, but the spread is currently set at only 5.5 points. I love Brown in this spot, who has commanded a 32% target share and a 40% air yards share in this offense.
He’s squaring off against a Cardinals team that is 28th in pass defense DVOA. With so many good plays at receiver, Brown’s ownership should stay in check.
Dan Gaspar: RotoGrinders Analyst
Terry McLaurin ($6,200 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel) (GPP)
McLaurin has been extremely underwhelming to start the year with just one touchdown and one game over 100 yards. Curtis Samuel has been targeted at a higher than expected rate to start the season as has rookie Jahan Dotson who is out with a hamstring injury.
Dotson’s absence would open up some targets which would help McLaurin return closer to the mid-20s target share we’ve grown accustomed to the past couple of seasons.
We know the talent is there for McLaurin, it’s just a matter of if he’s able to get on the same page as Wentz.
Beermakersfan: RotoGrinders Analyst
James Robinson ($6,300 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel) (Cash/GPP)
It seems the masses are ready to turn their back on Robinson this week with projected ownership hovering at or below 5% in most places. I think this is a great opportunity to take advantage of that recency bias. In Jacksonville’s two victories this season, JRob has been the clear workhorse averaging 22.5 touches per game.
Travis Etienne will certainly mix in and steal some touches, but give me the upside of 20+ touches against the league’s 29th ranked run defense in DVOA who have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.
The Jags are 7-point home favorites in what should be a positive game script PLUS no ownership, sign me up!
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