NFL Week 4 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Justin Herbert at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,800 as opposed to $11,200.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
The two quarterbacks should get plenty of love in this matchup. Herbert is the most expensive option on DraftKings, while Derek Carr is the priciest option on FanDuel.
Let’s start with Herbert. He put together one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history last year, racking up over 4,300 passing yards and 31 touchdowns in 15 games. He hasn’t taken a huge step forward in his sophomore season statistically, but he has already engineered two fourth-quarter comebacks and two game-winning drives. Both are tied for the most in the league.
He’ll take the field tonight is a three-point home favorite, which gives the Chargers a slight edge in implied team total. That said, Herbert is the rare quarterback who has actually performed better away from home to start his career. He owns an average Plus/Minus of just +0.70 in seven starts as a home favorite (per the Trends tool). That’s a small sample size, but that has historically been his worst split.
Still, Herbert leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median and ceiling projection, and he also owns the top projected Plus/Minus.
Carr is coming off one of his best professional seasons in 2020-21, and he’s taken things to another level to start the new season. He’s averaged an absurd 401 passing yards per game, and his 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt is easily the best mark of his career. He’s also racked up six touchdowns with just two interceptions while leading the Raiders to a perfect 3-0 record.
However, the Chargers represent a tough fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Carr’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.7 is the worst mark on the slate by a significant margin, and the Chargers have limited Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes to an average of 16.69 DraftKings points over the past two weeks.
Carr still stands out as a strong option, but this will be a tough test.
Mike Williams has been a fantasy monster to start the year. He’s scored at least 22.1 DraftKings points in all three games, and he’s racked up 31 targets, 22 catches, 295 yards, and four touchdowns. He leads all Chargers pass-catchers in air yards, and he’s also dominated with 41% of their end zone targets.
That’s caused his price to skyrocket by nearly $3,000 on DraftKings since the start of the season. His matchup against the Raiders is pedestrian, especially against Casey Hayward Jr. He’s been one of the best corners in football this season, allowing a completion percentage of just 33.0% while surrendering just 0.04 fantasy points per route to opposing receivers.
With that in mind, it’s fair to wonder if Williams is too expensive. He still grades out fairly well in our Models, but it seems like he needs a touchdown in order to return value.
Austin Ekeler was surprisingly uninvolved in the Chargers’ passing attack in Week 1, but he’s racked up 15 targets over the past two weeks. He’s also logged 20 carries over that time frame, which seems like the perfect usage of his skill set. Ekeler has responded with at least 22.5 DraftKings points in both games. The Raiders’ defense has been solid against running backs this season, but Ekeler still has the potential for a big game.
Darren Waller rounds out this price range, and he’s one of the best values of the day. He’s been a bit quiet over the past two weeks, but he still leads the team in targets, air yards, first reads, and end zone targets.
He’s in a prime bounce-back spot this week vs. the Chargers. They rank just 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA against tight ends this season, and Pro Football Focus gives him a sizable advantage over linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr.
Midrange
Keenan Allen is nearly $1,500 cheaper than Williams on DraftKings, and it’s hard not to love him at such a cheap price tag. Even though Williams has been the better fantasy player to start the season, Allen is still the Chargers’ top wideout. He leads the team in targets, and he’s scored at least 17.8 DraftKings points in all three games. The only real difference between him and Williams is that Williams has scored four touchdowns while Allen has one.
Allen clearly has the superior matchup this week as well. The Raiders’ biggest liability in their secondary is slot corner Nate Hobbs, and Allen has played 64% of his snaps in the slot this season. He should be able to dominate in that matchup.
Josh Jacobs is currently questionable after missing the past two weeks with an ankle injury. He was able to practice on a limited basis this week, but head coach Jon Gruden still labeled him a dreaded “game-time decision.” I think Jacobs ends up playing, but there’s no guarantee he’s at 100%.
That’s a shame because the Chargers represent an elite matchup for running backs. They rank just 31st in rush defense DVOA, so whoever is running the ball for the Raiders has upside on Monday. I like the idea of using Jacobs as a low-ownership GPP play if he’s active, but this could end up being a committee situation.
If Jacobs is ruled out, fire up Peyton Barber with confidence. He was extremely busy last week vs. the Dolphins, racking up 23 carries and five targets, and he ultimately finished with 26.2 DraftKings points. He would serve as the team’s lead back once again if Jacobs is out, which would make him very appealing vs. the Chargers.
Henry Ruggs has finally started making some noise after the Raiders drafted him with the No. 12 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Turns out, deep threats are even better when you occasionally throw to them — what a concept! Ruggs has averaged 21.5 yards per reception to start the season, and he’s seen at least seven targets in each of his past two games. He’s definitely underpriced if he’s going to continue to see that many targets moving forward.
Believe it or not, Hunter Renfrow is currently second on the Raiders with 22 targets. Most of those targets are of the low-value variety, but that’s not a killer at his current salary. He’s also one of Carr’s preferred targets in the red zone, ranking second on the squad in that department. He’s a low-ceiling, high-floor type of play.
Regardless of who starts at running back, Kenyan Drake’s role should be pretty secure. He’ll likely see some work in the running game, but his real value comes from his work as a pass-catcher. He’s seen 17 targets through the first three weeks, which ranks fourth on the team. He’s scored between 8.7 and 12.0 DraftKings points in all three games this season, and that seems like a reasonable expectation for him vs. the Chargers.
Finally, don’t forget about Bryan Edwards. The Raiders quietly have a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game, but Edwards is arguably their most complete receiver. He leads the position group in snaps this season, making him a strong target at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
- Jared Cook ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): The Chargers’ passing offense is very concentrated around Williams and Allen, but Cook has served as their No. 3 option this season. He ranks third on the team in targets and red-zone targets, and the Raiders rank just 16th in DVOA vs. TEs.
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Jalen Guyton ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Guyton hasn’t seen a ton of targets so far this season, but he has played on more than 66% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps. The first step towards scoring fantasy points is getting on the field.
- Zay Jones ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Jones caught a rare walk-off touchdown vs. the Ravens in Week 1, but he has just one catch since then. Still, he saw 22 snaps last week, so he has a puncher’s chance of returning value.
- Alec Ingold ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Ingold had four catches in the Raiders’ first game this season, and he scored a touchdown last week. That’s enough to put him on the radar as a punt play.
- Foster Moreau ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The Raiders like Moreau around the goal line, and he has one of their four end zone targets this season. He’s a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Larry Rountree ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Rountree has emerged as the Chargers’ No. 2 running back, but it remains to be seen if that role carries any fantasy value. He had four carries and one target vs. the Chiefs last week.
Pictured above: Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images.
