Football is officially back! Well, kind of. The preseason does give DFS players a chance to whet their appetites before the main attraction of the regular season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are key differences to remember when setting your rosters. For starters, the rosters are substantially larger. Each team currently has 80 players on their roster, but that number will be trimmed to 53 during the regular season. Most teams use the preseason to try and evaluate their entire roster, so expect nearly every player to see the field.
Volume is everything in the preseason. If the starters are only going to play one or two drives before ceding to the backups, the backups will inherently carry more fantasy value. Talent is simply not that important. Maybe the starters can score a touchdown in their limited playing time, but chasing volume will be a more sustainable strategy in the long term.
Luckily, FantasyLabs now has preseason projections in our NFL Models to help you build your lineups. Additionally, Chris Raybon put together a guide a few years ago with some helpful tips for beating preseason DFS.
Let’s dive into Friday’s four-game main slate.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Drew Lock was expected to start at quarterback for the Seahawks last week, but he ultimately missed that contest due to COVID. Now, he’ll get his chance to shine in Week 3. Geno Smith will reportedly start, but Lock is expected to play “most of the game.”
Lock has mostly been a disappointment at the NFL level. He was taken with the 10th pick of the second round in 2019, and he’s compiled an 8-13 record as a starter. He’s also averaged just 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt with 25 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
However, Lock did make some marginal improvements last year. His 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt was tied for a career-high, while his 1.8% interception rate was the lowest of his career.
Lock was also a solid prospect, especially from an athleticism standpoint. He ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at the combine, putting him in the 80th percentile for quarterbacks (per Player Profiler).
Ultimately, the preseason is all about playing time, and Lock figures to play as much as anyone on Friday.
Quick Hits
- Ian Book, Saints: Book has been a regular in these writeups, and he’s played 63 snaps in each of the first two weeks. The Saints are reportedly “considering playing their healthy starters” – whatever that means – but I’d be surprised if that included Jameis Winston. Overall, Book should be looking at another healthy workload.
- Bailey Zappe, Patriots: Zappe has seen the majority of the workload for the Patriots during the preseason. Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer combined for 21 snaps last week, while Zappe racked up 47. It’s unknown if the Patriots will play their starters this week, but Zappe figures to see plenty of playing time regardless. Zappe has averaged 189 passing yards during the preseason, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
- Case Keenum & Matt Barkley, Bills: Josh Allen is not expected to play this week, and Keenum and Barkley have split the playing time virtually right down the middle the past two weeks. Barkley has the slight edge in yards per game, but Keenum has the edge in touchdown passes and attempts. Keenum is also the better quarterback, so I’d give him the edge.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Allen isn’t the only player expected to rest for the Bills. Most of their starters are expected to get the night off, which will leave the team a bit thin at running back.
James Cook and Zack Moss both saw and handful of snaps last week, but they combined for just 16 snaps in Week 1. If they return to that level of workload, it will leave Duke Johnson and Raheem Blackshear to handle most of the responsibilities.
Johnson has averaged a few more carries per game than Blackshear during the preseason – 7.5 vs. 5.5 – but Blackshear has been the more productive rusher. He’s averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, which ranks eighth among all players.
Blackshear is an undrafted free agent out of Virginia Tech, and those players tend to dominate the preseason at running back. Blackshear was also incredibly productive as a pass-catcher in college, ranking in the 100th percentile at the position in target market share. His Agility Score also ranks in the 86th percentile, so he has a bit of athleticism as well.
Quick Hits
- Rico Dowdle, Cowboys: Dowdle established himself as a preseason goon last year, and he should be very relevant on Friday. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are not expected to play, and Dowdle racked up 23 snaps and 13 carries last week. He finished with 44 yards and a touchdown, and I’d expect a similar workload this week.
- Larry Rountree III, Chargers: Austin Ekeler and Isaiah Spiller have both been ruled out for the Chargers, and Josh Kelley has reportedly locked up the backup RB job. That leaves Rountree on the outside looking in, so the Chargers could ride him in the final preseason contest. Rountree’s athletic measurables are lacking, but he posted an 87th-percentile Dominator Rating in college.
- DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks: The Seahawks are expected to be without Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker III this week, so Dallas should continue to be busy. He’s racked up 15 carries in the preseason, which is tied for the 13th-most through the first two weeks. He’s also averaged a strong 5.9 yards per carry, and he has some talent as a former fourth-round pick.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
I’ve been riding the Cowboys’ receivers during the preseason, and I see no reason to stop now. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are not expected to play this week, while James Washington and Noah Brown have yet to play this season.
In their absence, Jalen Tolbert and Simi Fehoko have handled sizeable workloads during the preseason. Both players saw 40 snaps in Week 1 and 28 snaps last week. Tolbert leads the team with 10 targets, while Fehoko has their only receiving touchdown.
Both players have some draft pedigree as well. Tolbert was a third-round pick in 2022, and he was dominant at South Alabama. He racked up a 51.2% Dominator Rating, which puts him in the 97th percentile. His athletic measurables are decent, and Player Profiler lists his closest comp as Adam Thielen. That’s high praise.
Fehoko was a fifth-round selection in 2021, and he’s the better pure athlete. He ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, despite being an oversized receiver at 6’4” and 222 lbs. Add those factors together, and his Speed Score puts him in the 96th percentile. Player Profiler lists his closest comp as Alshon Jeffery, which is equally impressive.
Both players stand out among the best pass-catchers on Friday’s slate.
Quick Hits
- Isaiah Hodgins, Bills: Hodgins has been one of the busiest receivers during the preseason, with his 15 targets ranking tied for sixth in the league. With the Bills expected to rest their starters, things don’t figure to change much in Week 3.
- Michael Bandy, Chargers: Bandy has been one of the most productive receivers during the preseason regardless of metric. His 20 targets rank tied for first, and he leads all players with 15 receptions. His 142 receiving yards rank fourth during the preseason, and he’s also scored two touchdowns. The Chargers are not in a hurry to get their starters on the field, so expect another large workload for Bandy on Friday.
- Tre Nixon & Lil’Jordan Humphries, Patriots: We’re not sure how the Patriots plan to approach the final preseason contest, but I would expect the starters to play limited snaps or not at all. Nixon and Humphries have both been excellent during the preseason, ranking sixth and seventh in yards per game. Nixon has been the more consistent threat from a target perspective, but Humphries’ size gives him the edge in the red zone.
- Keelan Cole, Raiders: The Raiders are another team without a defined gameplan at the moment, especially since the starters haven’t suited up in each of the past two weeks. It’s possible the coaching staff could get those guys a bit of burn this week. Still, there should be plenty of opportunities for the backups, headlined by Cole. He leads the team with 101 receiving yards during the postseason.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Tight end is a bit more robust than we’ve seen in previous weeks. The Chargers stand out as my favorite team to target at the position.
The top three guys on their depth chart are not expected to play this week, leaving Hunter Kampmoyer, Sage Surratt, and Erik Krommenhoek to handle the responsibilities.
Of the group, Surratt appears to have the best pass-catching chops. He’s racked up three targets in each of the past two games, and he’s caught two passes in each. He hasn’t done much with those grabs – he has just 29 receiving yards – but that’s still better than Kampmoyer and Krommenhoek. Maybe he can add a touchdown this week, which is basically all we can hope for at TE during the preseason.
Quick Hits
- Devin Asiasi, Patriots: Hunter Henry and Dalton Keene have yet to suit up during the preseason, while Jonnu Smith has played just 16 snaps. Asiasi led the Patriots’ tight ends with 50 snaps and 21 routes last week, which are outstanding marks for the position.
- Jake Ferguson, Cowboys: The Cowboys have just four tight ends on their roster, and Dalton Schultz is not expected to play this week. Ferguson has five catches for 58 yards so far this preseason, and he has some pedigree as a fourth-round pick. He was productive in college, posting an 86th-percentile Dominator Rating at Wisconsin.
- O.J. Howard, Bills: The Bills are in a similar spot as the Cowboys: They have four TEs on the roster, but starter Dawson Knox is not expected to play. Howard has logged 56 total snaps during the preseason, and it doesn’t get much better from an athleticism standpoint. He was the No. 19 overall pick in 2017, and he ranks in the 96th percentile or better in 40-yard dash time, Speed Score, and Agility Score.
