We had our first taste of NFL football with the Hall of Fame game last Thursday, but the preseason shifts into high gear this week. All 32 teams will be in action, with the games split between Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Thursday will feature a two-game slate. The Giants will square off with the Lions, while the Patriots will play host to the Panthers. The Patriots are listed as 6.5-point favorites – a sizable mark for the preseason – while the Giants are 3.5-point home favorites against Detroit. The totals for both contests are similar, with DET-NYG checking in at 34.5 and CAR-NE at 33.5.
The first full week of the preseason will likely play pretty similarly to the Hall of Fame game, with most starters not suiting up. However, the Patriots stand out as the exception. Head coach Jerod Mayo has stated that everyone who is healthy enough to suit up will play, so expect the starters to see at least some action. That’s not enough to make them relevant, but it does make their backups a bit less valuable.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there – they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth chart in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for tonight’s slate.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jack Plummer
Plummer appears to have the clearest path to significant playing time at quarterback among Thursday’s four squads. Bryce Young is not expected to play during Week 1, while Andy Dalton is currently out with an injury. That leaves just Plummer and Jake Luton, who was only signed on Monday.
While I would still expect Luton to play, Plummer will likely handle most of the playing time. He’s expected to get the starting nod, and there have been reports that he will play “extensively.” Take preseason reports with a grain of salt, but that jives with Plummer’s status on the team.
He was an undrafted rookie free agent out of Louisville, and he played well enough in his final season to earn some NFL interest. Head coach Dave Canales said he’s been impressed by Plummer’s mobility and athleticism despite not testing particularly well at the combine.
Ultimately, I’d expect Plummer to get at least the full first half, and he’ll possibly play into the third quarter as well. He’s the clear favorite to garner the most snaps at the position.
Other Options
- Hendon Hooker – Hooker was a third-round pick for the Lions in 2023 but missed all of last season due to injury. That allowed Nate Sudfeld to lead the team in quarterback snaps during the preseason. Sudfeld is still around, but I’d expect Hooker to get most of the playing time this year. He needs “on-the-job training,” and this is the best opportunity for him to get it. Hooker is also an excellent athlete – he ran a 4.67 40-yard dash – which is a major plus for fantasy purposes.
- Drew Lock & Tommy DeVito – The Giants are the other team to target at QB, with Lock and DeVito expected to split all of the snaps. Lock will likely start the game and is tentatively slotted as the team’s backup, but as a new addition to the roster, the coaching staff might want to get him a healthy number of reps. DeVito is more familiar with the team’s system, but he’s not as important to the team’s regular-season plans. This could end up being a 50:50 split, but it wouldn’t shock me if DeVito replaced Lock at some point in the second quarter.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Dante Miller & Jacob Saylors
The Giants have just five running backs on their roster at the moment, and their top option (Devin Singletary) will likely not see the field. That gives them the most advantageous depth chart at the position.
Behind Singletary, Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy Jr. appear to be battling for backup duties. Gray was a fifth-round pick in 2023, while Tracy was a fifth-rounder in 2024. Tracy appears to have the early edge via camp reports, but both guys seem to have comfortable roster spots. I would expect both runners to see the field with the starters vs. Detroit, but I don’t think either will play extensively.
That leaves Miller and Saylors to handle most of the work. Both players are undrafted rookie free agents – Miller in 2024, Saylors in 2023 – which are the types of running backs that soak up work during the preseason. Saylors spent last preseason with the Bengals, and he averaged just 3.0 yards per carry in his limited preseason work. However, he was an All-UFL selection for his work with the St. Louis Battlehawks, racking up 4.9 yards per carry with five touchdowns and solid work as a pass-catcher.
The fact that the Giants signed him to the roster makes me think that they’re at least somewhat intrigued by him. I give him a slight edge over Miller, but both players are worth considering.
Other Options
- Kevin Harris – The Patriots are another team with just five running backs on their roster, but all five are expected to see the field. Still, it’s hard to imagine Rhamondre Stevenson or Antonio Gibson playing too much. Harris led the Patriots’ backfield and snaps and carries last preseason, and he has a good shot to do it again. He will face a bit of competition from UDFA Terrell Jennings, who should close the game for New England.
- Mike Boone – The Panthers have seven RBs on their depth chart, with four likely to play on Thursday. Boone is their No. 6 option overall, but he’s received some praise from Canales during training camp.
- Zonovan Knight – The Lions have five RBs who could see snaps on Thursday, four if key special teamer Craig Reynolds is held out of the first contest. Knight and Jake Funk are at the bottom of the depth chart, so they could be the guys who see the most work in Week 1.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Deven Thompkins
Wide receiver is easily the toughest position to decipher in the preseason. Most teams have at least four to five options who are going to see the field, and playing time doesn’t necessarily translate to production. You need to get lucky and land the guys who ultimately score touchdowns to craft the winning GPP lineup. With that in mind, I’m a firm believer in “spraying and praying.” If you’re building multiple lineups, getting exposure to as many guys as possible makes sense. Make sure to check out our NFL Models before game time to get the most up-to-date projections based on any late-breaking info.
Of course, we can still do our best to narrow things down. The Panthers stand out as the team with the most clear paths to playing time on Thursday. Diontae Johnson, Xavier Leggette, and Adam Thielen should all get the night off, while Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo should play sparingly (if at all). That leaves five guys to handle the majority of the snaps.
Of those five remaining options, Thompkins is my personal favorite. He does most of his damage from the slot, which gives him an easy path to targets during the preseason. He’s also reportedly having a great camp, and he appears to be a personal favorite of Canales, who brought him over from Tampa Bay.
Other Panthers receivers worth targeting include Ihmir Smith-Marsette – a preseason standout with the Chiefs last season – and Jalen Coker. Coker is an undrafted free agent out of Holy Cross who put up monster numbers in Division III.
Other Options
- Isaiah Williams & Jalon Calhoun – Antoine Green led the Lions’ receivers in preseason snaps last season as a rookie seventh-rounder. He might get that honor once again in 2024, but I’d rather target the two UDFAs: Williams and Calhoun.
- Ayir Asante & John Jiles – The Giants have a deep group of receivers at the moment, with lots of veterans and special teamers. Once again, I’m simply going to go with the UDFAs for this squad. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Giants need to run Allen Robinson and Gunnar Olszewski on the field in the preseason.
- Kayshon Boutte – The Patriots have 12 receivers currently on their depth chart, and only Kendrick Bourne (PUP) is definitely not going to play on Thursday. Boutte had some moments in the preseason last year, and his roster spot is reportedly in jeopardy. He needs to put together another strong preseason, and I expect the Patriots to give him the opportunity to do so. Other New England receivers to consider include JaQuae Jackson, Kawaan Baker, and David Wallis.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Ja’Tavion Sanders
At tight end, I’m going off any possible piece of information to try and make a decision. This position is brutal during the preseason, so any piece of intel can be enough to make someone viable. Canales has stated that third-round rookie Tevin Wallace will play a bunch during the preseason, so it stands to reason that their fourth-rounder will play a bunch as well.
That’s enough to put Sanders on my radar. Sanders has decent athleticism for the position, with Luke Musgrave listed as his closest comp per Player Profiler. He caught seven touchdowns in two seasons at Texas, so he has some receiving chops. He’s also seen lots of reps with Plummer during practice, so that chemistry could pay off in the games.
Who knows if that will actually result in any targets vs. the Patriots, but he’s my top tight end option.
Other Options
- Theo Johnson – Johnson has had a strong camp, enough to challenge Daniel Bellinger for the top spot on the depth chart. I wouldn’t expect extensive playing time vs. the Lions, but the Giants are pretty banged up at tight end.
- James Mitchell – Mitchell saw a bunch of work for the Lions last preseason, playing 101 total snaps with at least 31 in all three contests. That resulted in six catches for 57 yards, which isn’t terrible as far as preseason tight end production goes.
