We had our first taste of NFL football with the Hall of Fame game last Thursday, but the preseason shifted into high gear this week. All 32 teams are in action, with the games split between Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
After a full day of action Saturday, there are just two games to choose from to end the week. The Colts will host the Broncos at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the Cowboys at the Rams at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Colts are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a 38.0 total, while the Cowboys are 4.0-point road favorites in a game with a 35.5-point total. That discrepancy stems from Sean McVay’s disdain for the preseason and the fact that no member of the Rams with a locked-in role should play vs. the Cowboys. Both the Broncos and Colts will get their starters some work, while not much is known about the Cowboys (other than Dak Prescott not suiting up).
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there, they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth charts in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Sunday’s slate.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stetson Bennett
The big theme of this two-game slate is the Rams. They have some extremely favorable depth charts for the preseason, particularly when you factor in that the starters won’t play.
The first example is at quarterback. They’re only carrying four players at the position, and Matthew Stafford will get the night off. Jimmy Garoppolo is also tentatively expected to sit, though Sean McVay did leave the door open for him if he “wants to play.” Still, with Garoppolo suspended for the first two games of the regular season, it makes sense to get as many reps for the young guys as possible.
Bennett should serve as the team’s backup with Garoppolo suspended, and he will presumably start vs. the Cowboys. Bennett got extensive work in the 2023 preseason, tallying 62 attempts across three games, including 191 yards and a score in the team’s first preseason contest.
Once Bennett departs, Dresser Winn should close out the rest of the game. Winn saw limited action as an undrafted rookie in 2023, completing just three passes for five yards, so I expect Bennett to get the lion’s share of the playing time.
Other Options
- Trey Lance – The Cowboys are not expected to play Prescott at all this preseason, leaving Cooper Rush and Lance to handle the workload. Rush has been around since 2018, so the Cowboys pretty much know what they have in him. Lance is the far bigger question mark. The former No. 3 overall pick needs as many snaps as possible to prove that he has a place in the NFL.
- Zach Wilson – The Rams and Cowboys are the clear top two teams to target at QB. The Colts could play four guys on Sunday, while the Broncos will play three. Jarrett Stidham has been named the starter, while Bo Nix will follow and start their second preseason contest. With both guys essentially “starters” for the time being, I could see Wilson getting the entire second half in their first preseason outing. He’s a clear tier below the Cowboys and Rams QBs, but he has some viability.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Zach Evans & Ronnie Rivers
Keeping with our Rams theme, they only have five players on the roster at running back. Kyren Williams shouldn’t play, while Blake Corum shouldn’t see more than a couple of series. Boston Scott is third on the depth chart, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old doesn’t need a ton of preseason reps.
That leaves Evans and Rivers. Both players saw plenty of volume in the 2023 preseason. Evans led the team with 23 carries, while Rivers had 21 carries and two targets. Rivers was more productive (5.0 YPC), but the team has more invested in Evans (2023 sixth-rounder).
Ultimately, I could see both players splitting the workload pretty evenly for the second straight year. Both guys stand out as strong options on this slate, and you can even play them both together.
Other Options
- Audric Estime – The Broncos have two veterans at the top of their RB depth chart (Javonte Williams & Samaje Perine), so they don’t need a ton of playing time. Estime is a rookie fifth-rounder out of Notre Dame, and he brings big-time size and production to the table. He didn’t test particularly well athletically, but the Broncos should give him the opportunity to see what he’s got. They did the same thing with Jaleel McLaughlin last preseason, and that worked out well for everyone.
- Evan Hull – The Colts spread the rock around in the 2023 preseason, with five different running backs tallying at least 13 carries. I could see a similar formula playing out in 2024, but Hull had the most touches among the remaining running backs. With Jonathan Taylor not likely to play much (if at all), Hull could lead the group again Sunday.
- Deuce Vaughn – Vaughn only played in two preseason contests for the Cowboys last season, but he was extremely productive with 13 carries, 64 yards and two touchdowns. He added four receptions, giving him an average of 11.45 DraftKings points per game. Malik Davis was also extremely productive for the Cowboys last preseason, so they’re the two names to keep in mind in Week 1. That said, the Cowboys do have one of the more crowded RB rooms on Sunday’s slate.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jordan Whittington
The Rams receiving corps should be another source of value. They only have 10 bodies at the position, and Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Demarcus Robinson likely won’t play. Tutu Atwell could also have a secure spot on the roster, so he might get the veteran treatment from McVay, too.
Ultimately, I’m looking at the four rookies they currently have at the position: Whittington, J.J. Laap, Drake Stoops, and Sam Wiglusz. Of the four, only Whittington was valued enough by the Rams to be selected in the draft (sixth round), with the other three signing as UDFAs.
Whittington wasn’t overly productive in college, failing to crack 652 yards in all five years at Texas. However, he does possess solid size and speed, and he was a four-star recruit out of high school.
All four of the Rams rookie receivers are worth considering, along with 2023 UDFA Xavier Smith. However, Whittington’s draft capital makes him the most likely to get the first crack.
Other Options
- Devaughn Vele – Vele has drawn rave reviews from Broncos’ camp, outshining fourth-round pick Troy Franklin. That said, Vele’s roster spot still seems to be in jeopardy. Expect the Broncos to give him every chance to make the team, starting with his work in the first preseason game.
- Tyron Billy-Johnson – Billy-Johnson was the Cowboys’ most productive receiver in the 2023 preseason, leading the team with 102 receiving yards on 10 targets. This is the first time in his entire career that he’s spent back-to-back seasons with the same team, and he has reportedly impressed in training camp once again. He’s probably still a long shot to make the final roster, but another strong preseason would give him a chance.
- Anthony Gould – Gould was a fifth-round pick for the Colts in 2024, and he should get a chance to play with the backups Sunday. The injury to Josh Downs gives him a chance to be one of the team’s top slot receivers.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Davis Allen
Let’s conclude our tour of the Rams’ preseason roster with a stop at the tight end position. This is their most crowded position group, with seven guys currently on the depth chart. However, Tyler Higbee is currently on the PUP, and Colby Parkinson could get the day off as their current No. 1 option at the position.
Allen was a solid producer for the Rams in the 2023 preseason. He finished with nine targets – fourth-most on the team – which he converted into nine grabs. That’s good enough for me.
Other Options
- John Stephens Jr. – Like Allen, Stephens was a solid producer in the 2023 preseason. He had nine targets, which was tied for the third-most on the squad. He managed to catch six of those passes, including a touchdown. He’s still just the No. 4 option on the depth chart, so he could see extensive playing time for the second straight preseason.
- Lucas Krull – Even though the Broncos are going to play their starters a bit, they have the thinnest TE group on Sunday’s slate. They have just five bodies at the position, with Krull checking in at No. 3. Albert Okwuegbunam was heavily featured in that spot last season, finishing the preseason with seven catches, 109 yards, and a touchdown.
