We had our first taste of NFL football with the Hall of Fame game last Thursday, but the preseason shifts into high gear this week. All 32 teams will be in action, with the games split between Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Saturday features a five-game main slate featuring the following contests:
- Buccaneers @ Bengals (-6.0) – 38.5 total
- Chiefs @ Jaguars (-1.5) – 40.5 total
- 49ers @ Titans (-6.0) – 38.5 total
- Seahawks (-3.0) @ Chargers – 34.5 total
- Saints (-2.5) @ Cardinals – 38.5 total
This is the most extensive slate of the preseason so far, so we have more options to choose from than usual. However, a handful of these teams will be getting their starters some playing time. Andy Reid has stated that the Chiefs starters will play approximately a quarter, while the Bengals, Jaguars, and Titans will also get their starters some run. This is typically reflected in the Vegas data: the teams that are going to play their starters are usually favored, and the games see slightly higher totals.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there – they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth chart in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for tonight’s slate.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Kyle Trask
The Buccaneers currently have four quarterbacks on their roster, but only two are going to play on Saturday. Baker Mayfield will get the night off, while No. 4 QB Zach Annexstad is on the NFI list. That leaves Trask and John Wolford to handle all of the opportunities vs. the Bengals.
Trask was a second-round pick for the Bucs in 2021, and believe it or not, he’s already entering a contract year. Tampa Bay needs to find out if he can be their backup quarterback of the future. He’s currently battling Wolford for the backup job in 2024, with early reports suggesting that Wolford has the advantage.
Expect the Bucs to let this battle play out on the field. Trask has already been named the starter for this matchup, meaning he’ll get the advantage of playing with Tampa Bay’s top backups. That gives him the advantage over Wolford, but both options are definitely in play.
Other Options
- Sam Howell & P.J. Walker – Howell is a new addition to Seattle, and he’s expected to start their first preseason game with Geno Smith resting. Howell and Walker will split the playing time, and I’d expect both players to get about a half each. Howell will get to play with the better supporting talent, while Walker brings some rushing upside to the table.
- Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler – New Orleans is another team to target, with just two players expected to see snaps at the position. Haener vs. Rattler is one of the most high-profile backup battles, with Haener a fourth-round pick in 2023 and Rattler a fifth-rounder in 2024. Haener struggled in the preseason last year, while Rattler is a former five-star recruit out of high school. That could give the latter option the edge on this slate.
- Desmond Ridder & Clayton Tune – Like Howell, Ridder is a former starting quarterback looking to catch on as a backup for a new franchise. Kyler Murray won’t play for the Cardinals during the preseason, so Ridder and Tune should split the playing time pretty evenly. Both guys are capable athletes, and Tune was solid for the Cardinals in the preseason last year.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jordan Mason
Mason is the rare running back who could start and see a healthy volume of snaps in the preseason. Christian McCaffrey is obviously going to handle the vast majority of the touches for the 49ers in the regular season, so the team shouldn’t be afraid to let Mason tote the rock.
The 49ers’ running back room is in a state of disarray at the moment. McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, and Isaac Guerendo are all out with injuries, which doesn’t leave a ton of bodies available vs. the Titans. Mason should see plenty of work with the starting rotation and could see some time with the backups as well.
After Mason departs, Cody Schrader is a name to monitor. The 2024 UDFA tallied more than 1600 rushing yards in his final collegiate season at Missouri, and beat reporter Matt Barrows believes he’ll get extensive work in the preseason.
Other Options
- Bucky Irving – There’s a chance that Irving is a bit too valuable to risk in the preseason, but the fourth-round rookie leads a weak Bucs’ depth chart on Saturday. Rachaad White won’t play in the opener, while Chase Edmonds is currently out with an injury. Irving should draw the start before giving way to Sean Tucker, a 2023 UDFA with 4.44 speed. Both players have appeal on this slate.
- Hassan Haskins & Julius Chesnut – The Titans have just five RBs on their roster, and two of them (Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears) should only play a series or two. Haskins and Chesnut are reportedly battling for the No. 3 job, so expect those guys to each handle a solid workload on Saturday.
- Kenny McIntosh & George Holani – This is another RB3 job that is up in the air, with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet established as the top two options. Charbonnet may see some snaps on Saturday, but I’d expect these two to handle most of the opportunities. Holani is a 2024 UDFA who has gotten rave reviews out of camp, while McIntosh was a seventh-round pick in 2023.
- Kimani Vidal – Jim Harbaugh has already ruled out Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, leaving Vidal as the presumed starter on Saturday. A sixth-round pick in 2024, Vidal has strong athletic measurables and has a chance to factor into the equation during the regular season. The Chargers should give him the chance to shine during the preseason.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Andre Iosivas
Wide receiver is easily the toughest position to decipher in the preseason. Most teams have at least four to five options who are going to see the field, and playing time doesn’t necessarily translate to production. You need to get lucky and land the guys who ultimately score touchdowns to craft the winning GPP lineup. With that in mind, I’m a firm believer in “spraying and praying.” If you’re building multiple lineups, getting exposure to as many guys as possible makes sense. Make sure to check out our NFL Models before game time to get the most up-to-date projections based on any late-breaking info.
Even with the Bengals expected to play most of their starters, Iosivas is someone who stands out on Saturday. He currently looks like the WR4 in Cincinnati, with rookie Jermaine Burton struggling early in camp and Charlie Jones getting carted off on Thursday.
Iosivas was dominant in the preseason last year, racking up 26 targets, 12 catches, 129 yards, and one touchdown in three contests. The 2023 sixth-rounder has the athleticism to stick in the NFL, and another strong preseason could put him in the Bengals’ regular-season plans.
Kendric Prior and Shedrick Jackson are two other names to consider for the Bengals.
Other Options
- Ronnie Bell – The 49ers’ receiver room stands out as another good one to target on Saturday. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings likely won’t play, while Ricky Pearsall is out with an injury. Jacob Cowing and Chris Conley have also missed time with injuries of late, so their playing time could be limited on Saturday. That leaves Bell as one of the last men standing, and he had 10 grabs for 172 yards in the 2023 preseason.
- Rakim Jarrett – Jarrett played 65 snaps in his two preseason games for the Bucs last year, and he has drawn some praise from Todd Bowles this offseason. However, consistency has been an issue. He’s spent lots of time working with Trask and Wolford this offseason, so he has some chemistry with both players.
- A.T. Perry – The Saints have one of the thinner receiver rooms overall, and two receivers just signed in the last week. Perry was a strong contributor in the preseason last year, racking up 15 targets, 12 catches, 104 yards, and a touchdown. Bub Means (2024 fifth-rounder) and Mason Tipton (2024 UDFA) are two other names to consider.
- Jake Bobo – A 2023 UDFA, Bobo has reportedly been making splash plays for the Seahawks all camp. The Seahawks are another team with opportunities available on Saturday, with the top of the depth chart resting and the bottom of the depth chart not generating much attention.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Tanner Hudson
Hudson is the GOAT of preseason DFS for the tight end position. In 2019, he had 19 catches, 245 yards, and three touchdowns for the Buccaneers. He followed that up with 11 grabs for 129 yards in 2021. He switched to the 49ers for 2022, but the production didn’t stop: he racked up seven catches, 70 yards, and a score in two contests. Hudson was with the Bengals in 2023, and he added another eight grabs for 71 yards in two games. Overall, no tight end has averaged more fantasy points per snap during the preseason than Hudson.
That’s more than enough to put him on the radar on Saturday, but his situation looks pretty solid, too. Drew Sample should play with the starters, which leaves Hudson free to come in with the backups. The Bengals do have two rookie tight ends who should also see some action, but Hudson’s reputation makes him impossible to ignore at the weakest position in fantasy.
Other Options
- Devin Culp – Culp is a seventh-round rookie out of Washington, and he blazed a 4.47 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s an elite figure for a tight end. He is reportedly competing with Ko Kieft for backup duties in Tampa, but Kieft brings zero to the table as a receiver. Culp is a solid receiving threat, but he needs to show improvement as a blocker. Expect the Bucs staff to give him a chance to win the job in the preseason.
- Evan Engram – Even if the starters play just two drives, that could be enough for someone like Engram to be relevant at tight end. He was a frequent target for Trevor Lawrence last year, racking up a ridiculous 114 catches for 963 yards.
