We had our first taste of NFL football with the Hall of Fame game last Thursday, but the preseason shifts into high gear this week. All 32 teams will be in action, with the games split between Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Friday will feature a three-game slate. The Texans will square off with the Steelers, the Falcons will battle the Dolphins, and the Ravens will play host to the Eagles. The Falcons and Texans are both listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the Eagles are 1.5-point road favorites in Baltimore. The Ravens-Eagles game has a total of just 34.5 points, while Falcons-Dolphins (38.5) and Texans-Steelers (37.5) are at least a full field goal higher. I don’t typically put a ton of stock in preseason totals, but that’s a noteworthy difference.
Friday’s slate features one extra game compared to Thursday, but the DFS options feel a bit worse overall. The Texans and Steelers both could play their starters for a couple of drives, while the other four teams have been non-committal. I’m tentatively expecting the Falcons, Dolphins, Eagles, and Ravens to sit most of their key contributors – particularly with the poor weather slated for Baltimore – but make sure to keep an eye on the reports leading up to kickoff.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there – they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth chart in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for tonight’s slate.
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Skylar Thompson
There’s only one squad at the moment that I feel comfortable will play just two quarterbacks on Friday – the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t officially been ruled out yet, but given his injury history and Mike McDaniels’ previous tendencies following joint practices, I’m not expecting him to suit up.
That leaves Thompson and Mike White to handle the snaps vs. Atlanta. It would not shock me if we saw these two guys split the playing time right down the middle. They’re reportedly battling for the No. 2 job, with White currently ahead of Thompson on the depth chart. Expect White to draw the starting nod unless Tua gets in a series or two.
However, Thompson was the far more productive passer during last year’s preseason contests. He averaged 132 yards per game with three total touchdowns, and he added 150 yards per game with five scores in 2022. He’s a proven preseason commodity. White played in just two preseason contests last year and finished with a meager 14 pass attempts in total.
Just because Thompson got more opportunities last year doesn’t mean the same will happen in 2024, so I’ll have exposure to both players. That said, if I’m only playing one lineup, Thompson gets the nod over White.
Other Options
- Michael Penix Jr. – A surprise draft pick at No. 8 overall, the Falcons clearly like what they saw with Penix in college. He’s not expected to play at all during the regular season (barring an injury to Kirk Cousins), so it makes sense to get him plenty of reps during the preseason. The fact that third-stringer Taylor Heinicke is a vet who was with the team last year means he doesn’t need a ton of action in the preseason, so Penix could play a bit at his expense. He’s an older rookie, so I wouldn’t expect the preseason to be too much for him.
- John Rhys Plumlee – Justin Fields will draw the start for the Steelers, and Kyle Allen should serve as his direct replacement. However, Allen has been around the league for quite some time and doesn’t need much preseason action. It could leave as much as a full half for Plumlee, who ran for more than 1,360 in his final two collegiate seasons. I don’t typically like to target teams that could play three QBs, but we don’t have many options on this slate outside of the Dolphins.
- Kenny Pickett – I’m listing Pickett because I think he could see a handful of snaps for the Eagles, but I’m not going to advocate playing him until you check the weather reports. If the game is impacted by Tropical Storm Debby, it’s going to be a hard pass.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Carlos Washington Jr.
The Falcons stand out as the clear top team to target for running backs. They only have five players at the position, and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier won’t play much (if at all). That leaves Washington, Avery Williams, and Jase McClellan to handle most of the RB responsibilities.
Washington was an undrafted free agent in 2023, and he handled 30 carries with 11 targets for the Falcons last preseason. Washington reportedly “carried the load” for the Falcons’ second-team offense in their first joint practice vs. the Dolphins, so I’m expecting him to be busy once again.
Williams and McClellan also warrant consideration. Williams is a converted cornerback, while McClellan was a sixth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Both players have reportedly played behind Washington during training camp, but there’s more than enough work to go around.
Other Options
- Jaylen Wright – The Dolphins draft players the same way I recruit in College Football 25: it’s all about speed, baby. Wright is the latest blazer to join the Dolphins’ backfield, with the 2024 fourth-round pick running at 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine. He could get the same treatment that De’Von Achane got last season when he played 33 snaps in the first preseason contest.
- Rasheen Ali – The Ravens are another team that could use just three backs on Friday, and they’d become even more valuable if the weather doesn’t cooperate. Ali was a fifth-round pick out of Marshall, and he had at least 1,135 rushing yards in his final two full seasons. He also ran a 4.48 40 at the combine, so he’s the most intriguing of the Ravens’ remaining backfield options.
- Will Shipley & Tyrion Davis-Price – The Eagles’ backfield is a bit more crowded than the other three discussed, but they still have some guys worth considering. Shipley has reportedly been one of the stars of training camp and has pushed Kenneth Gainwell for the backup role. He should get a chance to show out vs. the Ravens, while TDP averaged 4.9 yards per carry for the 49ers during the preseason in 2023.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Khadarel Hodge
Wide receiver is easily the toughest position to decipher in the preseason. Most teams have at least four to five options who are going to see the field, and playing time doesn’t necessarily translate to production. You need to get lucky and land the guys who ultimately score touchdowns to craft the winning GPP lineup. With that in mind, I’m a firm believer in “spraying and praying.” If you’re building multiple lineups, getting exposure to as many guys as possible makes sense. Make sure to check out our NFL Models before game time to get the most up-to-date projections based on any late-breaking info.
Another quick note – I’m going to omit the Eagles and Ravens pass-catchers for the same reason I ignored the quarterbacks. If the weather is bad, I don’t imagine either coach is going to want to air it out.
The remaining four squads all look relatively similar at receiver: lots of bodies, lots of uncertainty. However, I’m going to give the Falcons the edge because of Penix. If they are going to get an extended look at their rookie QB, they probably want to give him some capable pass-catchers.
Hodge is currently the No. 4 receiver on Atlanta’s depth chart following a non-contact injury to Rondale Moore. He has reportedly had a strong camp and was “one of the stars” of the team’s joint practices vs. the Dolphins. Hodge only played in one preseason contest last year, where he caught his only target, so it’s possible the team doesn’t want to risk him too heavily. I’d expect him to depart whenever Penix does, so stacking the two together is a viable option.
Other Options
- Quez Watkins – Watkins is on the roster bubble in Pittsburgh, especially with Scotty Miller reportedly having a great camp. Watkins didn’t play for the Eagles in the preseason last year, but he’s going to need to make an impact to stick around in Pittsburgh. Watkins is capable of making splash plays, evidenced by a 79-yard receiving touchdown in the 2021 preseason.
- Xavier Hutchinson – Hutchinson led the Texans receivers in snaps during the 2023 preseason, and he got off to a tremendous start in 2024. He finished with five grabs for 56 yards in the Hall of Fame game, and he’s worth going back to on Thursday. The Texans’ top receivers are expected to get some playing time, but Davis Mills and the second-string pass-catchers should still see more work.
- River Cracraft – Cracraft is the top returner from the Dolphins’ 2023 preseason receiving corps with 111 snaps. He played in all three preseason contests, and he saw at least 28 snaps in each. That’s enough to make him relevant, along with Erik Ezukanma (80 snaps in 2023).
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Charlie Kolar
As usual, tight end looks particularly gross on Friday. Kolar stands out as my favorite option in a vacuum when factoring in depth charts and previous production. Mark Andrews doesn’t need to play in the preseason, while Isaiah Likely could also look to be preserved. Kolar was outstanding in the 2023 preseason, racking up eight catches for 120 yards on 67 snaps.
Of course, none of this matters if the weather is gross. I’m more willing to risk playing a Ravens/Eagles TE than WR – that’s how bad the position is during the preseason – but he’s by no means a lock.
Other Options
- Connor Hayward – Speaking of production, it’d be tough to find someone who made more out of his preseason snaps in 2023. He played on just 38 plays, but he converted that into six catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. He’ll line up at tight end and in the backfield, giving him some added versatility.
- Cade Stover – He saw more snaps than any non-offensive lineman for the Texans in the Hall of Fame Game. The Texans’ top two tight ends should get in the mix on Friday, but they don’t have an abundance of depth at the position. It should leave enough for Stover to stay relevant.
