NFL DFS Preseason DraftKings Breakdown (Friday, August 23rd)

We have made it to the final week of the preseason. After slogging through months without meaningful NFL football, winter is finally coming.

The final week of the preseason will feature the largest disparity in how coaches choose to approach things. Some teams look at this as the final dress rehearsal before the regular season and will choose to get their starters extended playing time. Others will bench the starters altogether to get one final look at the guys battling for the final few roster spots.

For Friday’s three-game slate, the Jaguars are the only team fully committed to playing their starters. Doug Pederson said that the starters will play “two quarters,” though they played about 1.5 quarters in last year’s preseason finale. The 49ers and Buccaneers have also stated they plan on getting some snaps for their starters, while the Falcons, Dolphins, and Raiders will rest their top options.

If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:

1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends

In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.

Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there, they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.

That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).

We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.

2. Target Playing Time Over Talent

This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.

That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth charts in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.

If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.

3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter

Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.

We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.

With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Thursday’s slate.

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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Kyle Trask

From a pure playing time perspective, Trask stands out as the winner for Friday’s slate. Baker Mayfield might see a drive or two, but last year, their starters played just one drive in the final preseason game. That drive did score a touchdown, so it’s possible they play a little more if their drive is unsuccessful vs. the Dolphins, but it’s hard to imagine them playing more than a quarter.

Trask should enter once Mayfield departs, and he might play the rest of the game. John Wolford is the only other QB on the active roster, and he was held out of practice with a rib injury earlier this week. He has told reporters that he “wants” to play on Friday, but there’s no guarantee that he gets his way.

Regardless, Trask should be looking at a minimum of two full quarters of action. He’s been pretty productive in his first two appearances, tallying 252 passing yards with a score. 

Other Options

• Carter Bradley – Bradley is another guy who could see a bunch of playing time on Friday. The Raiders have already ruled out their top two quarterbacks, while fourth-stringer Nathan Peterman just signed last week. He didn’t get into the game in Week 2, and while he likely plays on Friday, he could be limited to just a quarter or so. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Bradley, who completed 8-13 passes for 56 yards in his last outing.
• Mike White & Skylar Thompson – Tua Tagovailoa won’t play in Week 3, leaving White and Thompson to split the reps in the same way they have all preseason. Expect a half of action for both guys.
• Taylor Heinicke & John Paddock – The same goes for the Falcons’ backups, with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. both getting the night off. They split the playing time right down the middle last week, so both guys should see about a half.
• Mac Jones –  Jones has the least clear path to playing time of the guys mentioned, but he’s arguably the best pure thrower. He’s been outstanding so far this preseason, completing just under 75% of his passes for approximately 150 yards per game. If Lawrence sees slightly less than expected, it could open the door for around two quarters for Jones.

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NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Anthony McFarland

The Dolphins running back room is an absolute disaster at the moment. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane might play, but even if they do, their snaps should be heavily limited.

After that, there are very few healthy bodies on the roster. Jaylen Wright missed last week’s contest with an injury, while Jeff Wilson Jr. is dealing with a nose injury. Chris Brooks recently suffered a concussion while Salvon Ahmed was released.

That leaves McFarland as one of the only healthy bodies on the roster. He was only signed earlier this week, but the Dolphins might have no choice but to let him eat on Friday. For what it’s worth, McFarland was a fourth-round pick in 2020 and ran a 4.44 40-yard dash, so he has some athletic upside as well.

Other Options

• Tank Bigsby – Bigsby has had a strong training camp after a rocky debut season. He should get some work with Lawrence and the 1s and should stay on with Jones and the backups.
• Jase McClellan – The Falcons are another team with a thin RB room, and McClellan saw a healthy 38 snaps in Week 2. He turned those opportunities into 11 carries, 55 yards, and a touchdown, and he should be looking at a similar workload in Week 3.
• Sean Tucker – Tucker has been a workhorse for the Bucs this preseason. He’s racked up 14 carries and three grabs across two games, resulting in 109 total yards. All he needs to do is find the paint this time around.
• Cody Schrader – Schrader has been pretty unproductive this preseason, averaging less than two yards per carry on 11 totes. Still, the coast is clear on the depth chart, with all the 49ers’ top RBs dealing with injuries. He could start for the second straight week.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Cody Thompson

Thompson has been extremely busy for the Buccaneers this preseason. He’s played on 60% and 73% of the snaps in the first two contests, and there’s no reason to expect much difference in Week 3. The starters will get a drive or two, but some of the other bodies on the Buccaneers’ depth chart have been dealing with injuries of late. Sterling Shepard and Rakim Jarrett both missed last week’s contest, and both players could end up sitting once again.

Thompson has been around the NFL since 2019, signing as an undrafted free agent with the Chiefs out of college. He’s spent the past three preseasons with the Seahawks before signing with the Buccaneers this offseason. He was the recipient of Trask’s lone touchdown pass, and he’s racked up 10 targets, eight catches, and 92 yards in his first two contests.

Other Options

• Casey Washington – Washington has been a disappointment so far this preseason, catching just three passes for 27 yards. However, the upside is clearly there. He’s had a healthy snap share in each of the first two weeks, and he’s racked up 15 total targets. It’s hard to find players with that many opportunities in the preseason.
• Malik Washington & Erik Ezukanma – Washington and Ezukanma have been the Dolphins receivers to target in the preseason. Washington has seen at least 39% of the snaps in back-to-back games, while Ezukanma is coming off a five-catch, 65-yard performance in his last outing. Both players should be busy again on Friday.
• Jacob Cowing – Cowing was a fourth-round pick for the 49ers, and after missing Week 1 with an injury, he ran a team-high 36 routes in Week 2. He responded with five targets, four catches, and 51 yards, and he blazed a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine. He doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to make a big play, but he might get them on Friday.
• D.J. Turner – Turner led the Raiders with 46 snaps last week, and he racked up six targets and five catches. He’s averaged a paltry 7.7 yards per reception so far this preseason, but he’s another player who should have ample opportunities on Friday.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

John FitzPatrick

Tight end is typically very tough to navigate in the preseason. Each team has a bunch of different options to choose from, so picking the right guy can be difficult.

Fortunately, Raheem Morris is making our job a bit easier. He doesn’t play his starters in the preseason, and apparently, he doesn’t like his backup tight ends either. Ross Dwelley and Logan Thomas picked up DNPs in Week 2, while Austin Stogner saw just six snaps.

That left a massive amount of work for FitzPatrick. He racked up 62 snaps in Week 2, resulting in five targets. He only caught three of those passes for 15 yards, but that kind of playing time upside simply can’t be ignored. He’s the clear top option at the position on Friday.

Other Options

• Hayden Rucci – Rucci hasn’t seen quite as much action as FitzPatrick, but he’s played at least 50% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks.
• Devin Culp – Culp has split the TE snaps pretty evenly with Ko Kieft this preseason, but Kieft is known primarily as a blocker. Culp brings a bit more receiving upside to the table, and he provides elite speed at the TE position. He has to prove he can block to stick in the NFL, but he’s a worthy preseason target.
• Cameron Latu – Latu has been the 49ers’ primary TE during the preseason, easily pacing the group with 46 routes run. He’s responded with seven targets, five grabs, and 42 receiving yards.