One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings (DK) at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and utilize our Trends tool to help us examine reasons why they may be primed for success this week.
Quarterback
Eli Manning – Projected Plus/Minus: +10.0
The only remaining NFL starter of the Manning clan at the moment, Eli is coming off a horrific Week 16 performance. With Odell Beckham returning this week, he should be primed for a bounce-back performance though. Owning a Projected Plus/Minus of +10.0 – the highest we’ve had over the past two seasons at quarterback – Manning is in position for a nice game this week.
Looking at the nine quarterbacks who’ve had a Projected Plus/Minus of at least +8.0 in the past, the results have been extremely positive. This list includes both Blake Bortles and Drew Brees from last week, each of whom greatly exceeded their implied point totals.
Not only is his price reasonable at $5,600, he’ll be facing a very exploitable Philadelphia pass defense.
Narratives abound in this matchup, as ODB returns from suspension looking for vengeance and long-tenured coach Tom Coughlin may be coaching his final game for New York. In any other week I’d advise tossing such conjecture aside, but Week 17 is a different beast. We have to attempt to read the tea leaves more than ever, as many teams have nothing more to play for than pride and putting some positive play on tape. Stacking a motivated wide receiver/quarterback combo such as Manning and Beckham against a reeling defense like the Eagles makes for a very intriguing play.
Running Back
Devonta Freeman – Projected Plus/Minus: +10.0
Yes, Freeman is expensive. And yes, he has appeared to slow up down the stretch. But this Atlanta offense looked motivated last week against a tough Carolina defense and this week they’ll take on the dreadful Saints defense. As such, Freeman comes in to Week 17 with an impressive Projected Plus/Minus of +10.0.
In fact, he carries the second-highest projection of any running back over the previous two seasons, trailing only Le’Veon Bell in Week 15 last year. When we take a workhorse back as involved as Freeman and pit him against a defense as bad as the Saints, it’s really simple math. New Orleans has allowed an average of 30.2 DK points per game this year, so Freeman’s projection of 27.8 DK points is well within reason.
Will he be high owned? Yes. But will his ownership be so prohibitively high that he’s not worth rostering in tournaments? I’m not so sure. David Johnson will continue to be an extremely popular play and Deangelo Williams has an equally positive matchup at a slightly lower price. If you’re looking to spend up at the position this week, Freeman offers immense upside.
Wide Receiver
Nate Washington – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.8
The Texans get Brian Hoyer back from injury this week in an excellent matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in a “win and they’re in” scenario. Such a combination of factors makes DeAndre Hopkins an elite play, but will there be enough to go around for Washington as well? Looking at how Hoyer was performing prior to exiting with a concussion a few weeks ago, I’d say yes. In games that he was able to finish, he has averaged 2.43 touchdown passes per game.
Additionally, wide receivers that have had a Projected Plus/Minus of +6.0 or greater in a matchup with a comparable defense have fared quite well the past two seasons.
At his low price of $3,600 it won’t take much for Washington to hit value this week and he offers an amount of upside that will be difficult to match at his price-point.
Tight End
Gary Barnidge – Projected Plus/Minus: +5.3
One of fantasy’s best surprises this season, Barnidge has seen his price decrease by $600 over the past month, despite some great performances. This price decrease makes the tight end an excellent candidate to exceed his implied point total.
There’s certainly volatility associated with him, but no more than any other comparably priced player at the position. Tight ends priced between $4,500 and $5,300 have a Consistency Rating of 50% the past two years as opposed to Barnidge’s 60% over the previous ten weeks. His price and integral role in this offense make him a great option once again this week.
