One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings (DK) at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and utilize our Trends tool to help us examine reasons why they may be primed for success in this week’s Sunday-to-Monday slate.
Quarterback
Blake Bortles – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.4
Bortles is playing the New Orleans Saints this week, do you really need to know anything else? Because the NFL is so unpredictable from week-to-week, it’s not realistic to ever say that anything is ever 100% guaranteed to happen. But Bortles hitting value this week, yeah, I’d go pretty darn close to that 100%. Here is a look at how quarterbacks have performed against New Orleans this season:
That’s right – every single quarterback has exceeded his implied point total this year. Every one. Even Jameis Winston’s disappointing performance from two weeks ago was good enough to eclipse his expected point total.
Oh, and the average 26.22 DK points allowed by New Orleans is 2.11 points greater than the next closest team.
When Bortles has had a plus matchup (Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.01 or greater) and a high Projected Plus/Minus (+5.00 or greater) this season, the results have been mostly positive.
The only concerning aspect that sticks out to me is that he did have two of his worst statistical performances this season in these matchups, both of which occurred against a weak opponent. With this game taking place at home in Jacksonville, I do have a small amount of concern that the Jaguars could get up early and Bortles won’t see his usual second half touchdown explosion.
However, that fear is offset by the fact that Bortles has accounted for 91.7% of the Jaguars’ offensive touchdowns this season. So even if this game does get out of hand, it’s likely that he has already compiled enough statistical production to pay off his price tag. Start him with confidence.
Running Back
Javorius Allen – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.9
Either Allen has been struggling with fumbles in practice unbeknownst to the public or John Harbaugh has more Bill Belichick in him than we realized. Allen fumbled for only the second time in 139 touches early last Sunday and was promptly benched for the remainder of the game, finishing with only 0.8 DK points.
Putting a positive spin on this, we now have a chance to roster Allen at $4,200 – down $1,200 from only three weeks ago. Anytime we see running backs with Projected Plus/Minus totals around Allen’s, it’s worth taking note.
The Steelers have a tough run defense, but Allen has done most of his damage as a pass catcher anyway. With DraftKings’ PPR format, a handful of receptions will get him most of the way to meeting his low expected point total this week.
Wide Receiver
Dwayne Harris – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.4
Harris’ projection is elevated due to Odell Beckham’s suspension in Week 16. And while his matchup with the Vikings and their Opponent Plus/Minus rating of -1.3 is concerning, his minimum salary and potential workload should make up for it.
If you’re looking to utilize Harris this week, you should be doing so on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 92%. On the few occasions we’ve had receivers with such a high bargain rating and a comparably high Projected Plus/Minus total, the results have been quite positive.
You’re not necessarily going to find any week-winning performances in this group, but at such a low price, are you really expecting that? Harris is a fine option if you’re looking for a punt play at wide receiver, as he should have no trouble meeting value this week.
Tight End
Vance McDonald – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.4
McDonald is a starting tight end at minimum price facing a Detroit defense that has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9 this season and has also allowed the fifth-most DK points to the position this year – what’s not to like? Now, obviously he carries an obscene amount of risk – over the previous two games he has totaled three receptions for 28 yards – but in the two games prior to that, he had racked up 10 receptions for 136 yards and two touchdowns.
One look at the graph above should be all you need to confirm that he’s probably not the guy you’re targeting in cash games this week. However, at his minimum price and likely almost non-existent ownership, he does have some appeal as a potential GPP play.
