One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings (DK) at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s Sunday/Monday slate.
Quarterback
Derek Carr – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.5
After a strong four-game stretch that saw Carr average 27.15 DK points per game, we’ve seen the sophomore quarterback come back down to Earth a bit. In the four games directly following this breakout, Carr has averaged only 16.15 DK points.
As a result of this poor play, we’ve seen his price plummet, making him an intriguing option once again. Taking advantage of Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool, we’re able to pull together a list of quarterbacks who’ve been in comparable situations in the past.
With this tool I’m able to isolate players that had a similar profile to what Carr has heading into this week: a high Projected Plus/Minus, a comparably weak opponent, and a season-long Plus/Minus of at least 4.0. The results illustrate to us that this has been an exploitable situation in the past, with the six selected quarterbacks producing an average Plus/Minus of +9.37.
Some may look at Green Bay’s pass defense and see that they have allowed only 1.2 passing touchdowns per game this season and be scared away. But looking at their schedule, we can see that it’s been extremely light on quality opposing quarterbacks. The Packers have only faced three quarterbacks that rank in the top 10 (in terms of DK points scored) this season and have allowed an average of 29.57 DK points to this trio (Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson).
In a game that they are projected to be trailing in, Carr and company should see plenty of work in the passing game. With an implied point total of only 13.61, there’s no reason to believe he won’t exceed his value easily this week.
Running Back
Charcandrick West – Projected Plus/Minus: +8.6
With backfield mate Spencer Ware unlikely to play, West should move back into the bell-cow role in this offense. Prior to his injury in Week 11, we saw West thrive in this role, posting three consecutive games of at least 22 DK points.
While the Ravens defense is no cakewalk, we’ve seen teams that have had positive game scripts find success against them this season. And with the Chiefs favored by 7.5 points, West should find himself with a nice workload down the stretch as Andy Reid attempts to run out the clock in this game.
Looking at previous situations where we’ve had running backs with comparable Projected Plus/Minus totals and their teams favored by at least seven points, there has been a lot of success.
Of the 13 players who met these conditions, only two failed to exceed their implied point total – Shane Vereen last season as a Patriot and Ben Tate. Vereen’s failure makes perfect sense – when the Patriots are heavy favorites we generally see the passing downs back receive a reduced workload and Ben Tate is, well, Ben Tate. Underperformance is kind of something we came to expect from him.
Along with posting four total touchdowns during his three game breakout, West found himself very involved in the passing game, recording nine receptions. Meaning that even if game flow were to deviate from our expectations, we should see him involved enough to still meet his modest 9.9 implied point total.
Wide Receiver
Anquan Boldin – Projected Plus/Minus: +7.1
I’m not sure what happened to this San Francisco offense last week, but they looked unprepared for the Cleveland Browns and struggled all day. As a result, Boldin’s salary dropped again this past week to $3,900. While the prospect of rostering him at this point may be stomach-churning to many, keep in mind that he had averaged six receptions for 74 yards over his previous three games with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Seeing a healthy workload – he had averaged over 10 targets per game over that same stretch – we should see his target share and production revert to totals closer to his previous averages.
When others at the wide receiver position have suffered a salary decrease over the previous month such as Boldin, and carried a Projected Plus/Minus of at least +7.0 into their game, they’ve produced decent results. Five of the six receivers to have met the requirements have exceeded value in such situations, a good sign for Boldin this week.
Cincinnati has been tough on opposing wide receivers this season, but with their secondary banged up and Boldin’s low price tag, he’s makes for a nice option if you’re trying to fit in some higher priced players this week.
Tight End
Ladarius Green – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.1
While Green may be the leader in our Projected Plus/Minus at the tight end position this week, this speaks more to his incredibly cheap price and the lack of quality options at the position, than it does his projected production this week.
At a near minimum-$2,700 salary this week, Green’s implied point total sits at only 3.82 DK points. While he’s a great bet to exceed this total, it’s tough to expect a huge game out of him with Antonio Gates in the lineup, as his last meaningful game occurred back in October with Gates sidelined.
Working in his favor has been the rash of injuries incurred by the Chargers receiving core. Green has been on the field for 81% and 88% of offensive snaps the past two games with Stevie Johnson sidelined, compared to an average of 53.5% over the previous two with Johnson healthy. He has also seen an uptick in targets, with six targets in each of the previous two games. Facing a Miami defense that is middling against tight ends, Green may be worth a shot in a GPP lineup or two this week if you need extreme savings at the position.
