One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s matchups.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer – Projected Plus/Minus: +10.0
This one isn’t complicated. Hoyer throws the ball to a one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. They face the worst pass defense in the league this week. Sometimes things really are that simple.
The Saints have become an automatic spot to target for fantasy points from the quarterback position lately. Over their previous four games, they’ve allowed an average of 34.58 DK points per week.
In the four weeks prior to going down with a concussion in Week 10, Hoyer averaged 21.83 DK points per game, seventh most among QBs over that stretch.
Additionally, this spot has set up well for quarterbacks in general over the previous two years.
Signal callers taking on a team with an Opponent Position Plus/Minus of +9.7 or greater have averaged over 21 DK points per game. And these guys weren’t throwing to Nuk Hopkins.
At his minimum price, Hoyer makes for a fine option in cash games if your lineup construction leads you in the direction of a budget quarterback this week.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.8
Okay, technically we’re cheating here. Charcandrick West and Carlos Hyde both have a higher Projected Plus/Minus this week, but with both likely to sit with injuries, it’s tough to recommend them at this point. Should their statuses change later in the week, West will once again see a nice workload comparative to his price.
Now on to McCoy. LeSean has come back with a vengeance of late. After struggling with injuries early on, he has now exceeded his expected point total five weeks in a row.
The only concern with him is his matchup this week against Kansas City. Carrying an Opponent Position Plus/Minus of -1.3, this stout unit has allowed no more than 56 rushing yards to a running back over the past month.
Over the previous two seasons, similar matchups have proven to be difficult for McCoy.
However, with his involvement in the passing game – 11 catches over the previous two games – and his deflated price, McCoy should be able to meet or exceed his value in this tough Week 12 matchup.
Wide Receiver
Stevie Johnson – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.2
Johnson has seen a ton of work over the previous two games since Keenan Allen was lost for the season. He has racked up 18 targets and turned those opportunities into 14 catches for 122 yards.
Unfortunately he hasn’t found the end zone and the yardage has been limited due to the inability of this offense to string together any semblance of a drive.
The only positive we can take from this is that he remains extremely underpriced based upon his target share and opportunity.
Underdogs on the road against the Jaguars – a team that is stout against the run – Johnson and this passing offense should be busy. Over the past couple of seasons, receivers in a comparable situation have proven to be very effective.
At his price, it’s very difficult to not pencil him in for a spot in your cash lineup this week. His expected point total is only 9.61 DK points, which he should have no trouble exceeding in Jacksonville.
Tight End
Coby Fleener – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.4
Fleener’s inflated Plus/Minus stems largely from his low price of $3,000. At that price, the former Stanford tight end only needs 4.67 DK points to meet his value. With a nice matchup against Tampa Bay – a team with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3 against TEs – Fleener is in play if you’re looking to punt the position this week.
Of the 12 tight ends who’ve been in a comparable situation – a Plus/Minus greater than +6.0 and an Opponent Plus/Minus greater than +2.0 – over the past two seasons, 67% have met or exceeded their value.
With Tampa Bay having allowed four games over 13 DK points this season, the potential is there for a nice outing from Fleener.
D/ST
Indianapolis Colts – Projected Plus/Minus: +3.2
This bargain defensive unit – $2,000 this week – is not recommended for the faint of heart. Just as we saw last week with the Philadelphia Eagles, the opportunity to exploit a matchup with a rookie quarterback can be alluring, but it can also burn you.
While this scenario sets up well for a potential big day – two of the seven teams posted greater than 20 DK points –teams in this position have also proven to be inconsistent, with four of the seven failing to exceed their expected point totals.
Due to this, the Colts make for an interesting tournament play, but are very risky in cash games. Despite the risk, factoring in their minimum price, and the inherent variance we see every week at the D/ST position, they do deserve consideration if you find you need savings this week.
