NFL DFS and betting expert previews every Sunday afternoon matchup on the Week 8 slate below, complete with his recommended cash and GPP plays for each, plus his cash-game lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dolphins at Bills
DFS Plays
Stefon Diggs’ three career lines (as a Bill) against the Dolphins are 8/153/1, 7/76/0 and 4/60/1. He’s viable in cash games on FanDuel, where his price has fallen all the way down to $7,300. The Xavien Howard and Byron Jones combo has been mediocre for the Dolphins, with Howard ranking 47th and Jones 67th among 113 qualifiers in PFF’s cornerback grades while the Dolphins are ranked 21st in DVOA on targets to opposing WR1s, per Football Outsiders.
The Dolphins are top-three in man coverage rate, so this should also be a big Emmanuel Sanders game. After Diggs (23), Sanders (10) is the only other Bills receiver with double-digit targets against man coverage this season. Sanders and Diggs have combined for 59% of Josh Allen’s targets versus man coverage.
Cole Beasley, meanwhile, has seen 86% of his targets come against zone coverage this season, so he is a dicey proposition who will have to rely on an uptick driven by the absence of Dawson Knox (hand).
In Knox’s place at tight end will be some combination of backup TE Tommy Sweeney and fullback Reggie Gilliam, but the Bills may go back to using more four-wide sets like they did before Knox broke out, so the true beneficiary may be Gabriel Davis, who can win in single coverage downfield.
Josh Allen is a high-risk, high-reward GPP play given his premium price tag.
The Dolphins blitz at the fifth-highest rate (32.2%), according to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats, and Allen has struggled against the blitz this season, ranking 27th of 34 QBs with a 74.7 rating. In the first meeting between these two teams, Allen went just 4-of-12 for 56 yards when Miami sent extra rushers. However, Allen is a good bet to figure things out, as he ranked ninth among QBs with a 109.6 rating against the blitz last season, tossing 17 TDs with only two interceptions.
Since Zack Moss was first active in Week 2, he has 64 touches to Devin Singletary’s 59, effectively killing both of their values in DFS despite facing a Dolphins team that is not particularly hard to run on (18th in DVOA).
The Dolphins were held to 216 total yards and zero points when these teams met in Week 2, so this is a week to fire up the Bills DST. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense are coming off a couple of solid weeks against the likes of the Jaguars and Falcons, but the Bills represent a step up in class, as they rank first in DVOA and have had an extra week to prepare for a team they shut out the first time around.
Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin and Co. are fades this week.
- Cash Plays: WR Stefon Diggs
- GPP Plays: QB Josh Allen, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Gabriel Davis, DST Bills
Betting Pick
As of this writing, the Bills are getting 69% of the bets and 95% of the money (check real-time public betting data here), so the books need Miami. Still, it’s hard to pull the trigger on a contrarian play with the Dolphins owning a -10.7 point differential after adjusting for strength of schedule while the Bills are at +13.1 and shut out the Dolphins, 35-0, in Week 2.
Pick: Pass
Panthers at Falcons
DFS Plays
After facing the Football Team (28th in defensive DVOA), Giants (19th), Jets (29th), and Dolphins (25th), the Falcons will now face the 11th-ranked Panthers, so this is a good time to sell high on their offense.
The Panthers already had three cornerbacks ranked in the top 50 in PFF’s grades — Keith Taylor, 34th; A.J. Bouye, 40th; and Donte Jackson, 46th — before activating Stephon Gilmore, who was acquired from the Patriots earlier this season. The Panthers are 29th in DVOA versus WR1s, but first against WR2s and RBs, as well as seventh against TEs. So with Calvin Ridley’s price falling and that of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson rising, Ridley makes the most sense in GPPs this week.
Carolina is something of a run funnel, ranking ninth in DVOA against the pass but 19th against the run. But Mike Davis continues to be ineffective, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and 4.9 yards per reception. Despite playing 60% of the snaps last week, Davis saw only four carries for 10 yards and was not targeted in the passing game.
The Panthers went from a game plan of trying to hide Sam Darnold on the field to hiding him on the bench last week, while Robby Anderson’s hands continue to hide from catchable footballs.
The only options for the Panthers are D.J Moore and Chuba Hubbard.
Moore faces a Falcons defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs, allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards to the position (85.5). With slot receiver Terrace Marshall (out-concussion) being replaced by a committee of Keith Kirkwood and fellow rookie Shi Smith while Rookie Tommy Tremble continues to split snaps with veteran Ian Thomas at TE, targets should continue to be concentrated around Moore, who leads the team with 10.4 targets per game and a 29% target share on the season.
Anderson, meanwhile, has been dismal. He has caught only 18-of-49 (36.7%) targets. And while he should eventually regress from essentially being the worst starting receiver in football, it is unlikely to come in this spot, as the Panthers are allowing an NFL-low 21.4 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 2 WRs.
Hubbard should have success against a unit that is ranked 30th in DVOA against the run and 23rd on passes to WRs. He’s also viable in a contrarian stack with the Panthers DST, as Carolina’s defense could be a jarring reality check for the Falcons after facing a cake schedule over the past month.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: RB Chuba Hubbard, WR D.J. Moore, WR Calvin Ridley, DST Panthers
Betting Pick
I’m still in rehab from laying points with Sam Darnold on the road last week, but I still won’t hesitate to buy low on Carolina and sell high on Atlanta here.
The Falcons are coming off a stretch in which they played four of the league’s worst defenses and cruised to a 3-1 record, but the Panthers’ unit is ranked 11th in Football Outisders’ DVOA and is getting more cornerback help with Stephon Gilmore.
This is obviously not a bet on Carolina’s offense, but against Atlanta’s defense, which is ranked 30th in DVOA.
And as disgusting as a play on Carolina may seem, teams in this spot have historically been profitable: Since 2003, underdogs by two or more points that scored fewer than 10 points in their last game and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of at least .350 are 212-129-8 (62%) against the spread (ATS), per our Action Labs data.
Pick: Panthers +3 (to +3)
Eagles at Lions
DFS Plays
Jalen Hurts continues to solidify himself as a bad real-life QB, good fantasy QB: His 38.9 QBR ranks 27th, but he is the overall QB5 in fantasy. At just $8,400 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings, he continues to be the top cash game option at his position.
A Lions defense ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass and 21st against the run should allow Hurts to post one of his best games of the season.
The Lions allow the third-fewest schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to non-No. 1 or No. 2 WRs, and give up below-average yardage totals to RBs and TEs, which means they provide little resistance as far as allowing the opposing offense to get the ball to its top playmakers. Eagles TEs have a 24% target share, and DeVonta Smith has a 23% target share, so Dallas Goedert and Smith are the Eagles pass catchers I’m stacking with Hurts.
Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins have a heightened chance of ripping off a big play against a Lions defense that is ranked second-worst in explosive pass plays allowed (15%), but there are better cheap options at WR.
With Miles Sanders (ankle) going on IR, rookie Kenneth Gainwell could have his first true breakout game. It will likely have to come in the passing game, however, as head coach Nick Sirianni has dialed up only 13.7 handoffs to RBs per game. Boston Scott, who out-carried Gainwell 7-5 last week after Sanders went down, and potentially Jordan Howard, who is expected to be elevated from the practice squad, could split carries with Gainwell.
While a potential lack of rushing volume keeps Gainwell out of the cash game conversation, he should be able to run circles around Lions linebackers in coverage: Detroit is ranked dead last in DVOA on passes to RBs and has allowed an NFL-high six receiving TDs to the position.
While the Eagles defense may be a popular cost-saving option at DST against the lowly Lions, I wouldn’t necessarily pencil them in for a huge day. The Eagles play zone at the highest rate in the league and only generate pressure 20.9% of the time, sixth-lowest, so Jared Goff may be able to play his conservative brand of football without much resistance.
The Lions have played a slew of zone-heavy defenses lately, with the Eagles running a similar scheme to the Rams unit they saw last week. This works to the benefit of TJ. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift and Kalif Raymond, who have seen 22%, 20% and 19% of the team’s total targets versus zone coverage this season. At just $6,200 on FanDuel, Hockenson is cash-viable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has seen only 9% of his targets come against zone coverage, continues to be a fade versus these types of schemes. Despite a gaping hole at WR, St. Brown has clearly fallen behind Raymond as the team’s WR1. Raymond ran a route on 95% of the dropbacks two weeks ago and 88% last week, while St. Brown 82% and 75%, respectively.
Although Swift (78) has barely seen more carries than Jamaal Williams (71), Swift is running a route on 65% of Goff’s dropbacks compared to 23% for Williams, which keeps him in play in GPPs. The Eagles are allowing tied for the third-most schedule adjusted targets to opposing RBs (8.1). Philly also is also ranked 29th in run-defense DVOA.
- Cash Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, TE T.J. Hockenson
- GPP Plays: RB D’Andre Swift, RB Kenneth Gainwell, WR Devonta Smith, WR Kalif Raymond, TE Dallas Goedert
Betting Pick
Jalen Hurts has been erractic, completing 61.2% of his passes. Plus the Eagles are below-average in offense (21st in DVOA), defense (23rd) and special teams (18th).
The Eagles defense is very basic and zone-heavy, which should allow Jared Goff to play a mistake-free game, especially after playing a more talented version of this scheme last week against the Rams. The Lions are also ranked third in special teams DVOA, and with the spread at +3.5, that could absolutely come into play.
It’s more of a gut feel, but this could be the Lions’ first win of the season. They are worth a play if the line gets to +4 or better.
Pick: Pass at +3.5, Lions at +4 or better
Titans at Colts
DFS Plays
Michael Pittman impressively produced a 4/105/1 line despite seeing just four targets in an uncharacteristic monsoon in Santa Clara. With Parris Campbell (foot) on IR and T.Y. Hilton (questionable-quad) banged up, Pittman is cash-viable against a Titans defense that is allowing tied for the fourth-most schedule-adjusted targets (9.2) and ninth-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards (79.2) per game to WR1s.
The Titans are banged up in the secondary and are allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted yards to WR2s (72.9), so Zach Pascal will be a nice option if Hilton sits. The three-way committee at TE featuring Jack Doyle (48% of routes), Mo-Alie Cox (38%) and Kylen Granson (17%) continues to be a fade.
The Titans have quietly improved their pass rush, ranking fifth in pressure rate at 28.0%. This makes Carson Wentz a fade, as he is averaging just 6.9 YPA under pressure, with only one of his 11 TD passes coming when under duress.
The Colts offense will likely continue to revolve around Pittman and Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging 17.6 touches for 113.1 yards per game this season while Nyheim Hines is averaging only 35.1 yards on 7.1 touches. Taylor should continue to eat against a Titans defense that is ranked 25th in DVOA against the run, though they are sixth in DVOA on passes to RBs.
After a price decrease following a disappointing scoreless showing (on the ground) against the Chiefs, Derrick Henry profiles as more of a GPP play this week against a Colts defense that is ranked first in DVOA.
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Tennessee Titans star running back Derrick Henry.
With Julio Jones out, A.J. Brown could be in for another monster game against a Colts defense that is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the pass.
Even without Jones, Ryan Tannehill is in play in GPPs against what sets up as a pass funnel defense. The Colts are also last in the NFL in pressure rate (16.3%) while Tannehill is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt from a clean pocket compared to 5.2 under pressure. Volume is always a concern for Tannehill, but Henry won’t vulture a TD pass from Tannehill every week, while Tannehill is extremely capable of returning the favor and vulturing a rushing score, as he was 11 in his last 23 starts dating back to the start of last season.
There’s no other viable option to stack Tannehill with besides Brown, as Josh Reynolds ran a route on 58% of dropbacks last week with Marcus Johnson and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine both seeing a 35% route share. Chester Rogers has run a route on 64% of dropbacks this season and will be back as well.
At TE, Anthony Firkser has not become the full-time player some had hoped, running a route on just 56% of Tannehill’s dropbacks this season.
- Cash Plays: WR Michael Pittman
- GPP Plays: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR A.J. Brown, WR Zach Pascal (if Hilton sits)
Betting Pick
I’m projecting this total at 49, and our NFL PRO Projections have it at 48.9, so there should be roughly two points of value on the under here.
The Colts are dead-last in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders, while the Titans are 23rd. The Colts defense is No. 1 in DVOA against the run, which makes them well suited to limit the Titans’ most explosive element in running back Derrick Henry.
It’s not that these teams shouldn’t be able to score, it’s that this game could feature a lot of long drives, as the Titans are third in time of possession per drive (3:17) while the Colts are seventh (3:01). That leaves little margin for error for getting over a total above 50.
Pick: Under 51 (to 49.5)
Rams at Texans
DFS Plays
The Texans defense is 12th in DVOA against the pass but 30th against the run, so this is a smash spot for Darrell Henderson, who is averaging 18.5 touches for 92.5 scrimmage yards per game. Sony Michel is averaging only 6.2 touches per game in six contests with Henderson active.
Davis Mills has taken 14 sacks and thrown six interceptions in five starts while leading the offense to an average of just 7.8 points per game, so this is also a smash spot for the Rams DST, which can be stacked with Henderson for added correlation in GPPs.
Although the Texans set up as a run funnel defense, Matthew Stafford has been too efficient to fade in tournaments, averaging 310.3 yards and 2.71 TDs per game passing.
Texans defensive coordinator Lovie Smith leans on a Tampa 2 scheme, which has enabled Houston to post the fifth-best DVOA ranking on passes over the middle while rating 16th on passes to the left and 31st to the right. Robert Woods leads the Rams in targets over the middle with 16 and is the most likely Rams receiver to be adversely affected by the scheme. Cooper Kupp is the overall fantasy WR1 and should continue to eat, while Tyler Higbee is a high-ceiling, low-floor option as Houston is ranked 29th in DVOA versus TEs.
This is also a great time to play Van Jefferson. DeSean Jackson will be inactive this week and is being allowed to seek a trade, which should vault Jefferson into a near-100%-snap player. Jefferson has run a route on 80% of Stafford’s dropbacks this season, but that rate increased to 95% last week.
With Jalen Ramsey playing closer to the line of scrimmage and not shadowing opposing WR1s, the Rams have dipped to 23rd in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wideouts, allowing 92.3 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position, third-most.
At just $6,000 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings, Brandin Cooks is cash-viable. Cooks is averaging 9.1 targets per game and has a 31.2% target share on the season. With Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Danny Amendola and Chris Moore splitting snaps at WR and Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown platooning at TE, no other pass catcher on the team is a threat to Cooks’ targets from Mills.
The Texans traded Mark Ingram to the Saints, opening up additional snaps for Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson. Ingram handled 58% of backfield carries but ran a route only 19% of the time, so his absence will likely result in more of an uptick for Lindsay in terms of pure volume, as Lindsay seems to be favored as a pure rusher, with 38 carries to Johnson’s 27. Still, any increase in usage for Johnson could give him big upside at his salary, as he was already running a route on 47% of dropbacks compared to 11% for Lindsay.
It’s also worth noting that Johnson saw seven carries while Lindsay saw two last week against the Cardinals, though it’s unclear if that was for #RevengeGame purposes. Either way, Johnson is worth a dart throw in tournaments.
- Cash Plays: RB Darrell Henderson, WR Brandin Cooks
- GPP Plays: QB Matthew Stafford, RB David Johnson, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Van Jefferson, TE Tyler Higbee, DST Rams
Betting Pick
The Rams have scored 26 or more points in all but one game while Davis Mills has been held to fewer than 10 points in all but one of his five starts. Sean McVay will likely use last week’s near-letdown against the Lions as a way to motivate his team to stomp all over the Texans.
I’m not in the business of betting favorites this big, but it’s Rams or nothing here.
Pick: Lean Rams -15.5
Bengals at Jets
DFS Plays
Ja’Marr Chase has at least 77 yards and/or a TD in every game. And now, he faces a Jets defense ranked 30th in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers.
He is the top cash game play at WR.
The Jets are ranked below-average in DVOA against every position and are allowing the most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to RBs (75.4) and the seventh-most to TEs (72.5), so the ball could go anywhere when it’s not going to Chase. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah are all stacking options with Joe Burrow, while Joe Mixon-Bengals DST is one of the top RB-DST stacks this week.
Fresh off holding Lamar Jackson to 17 points, the aforementioned Bengals defense should have a field day against Mike White in his first start. The Bengals are ranked eighth in pass-defense DVOA, and with White starting and Corey Davis (hip) doubtful, the Jets’ passing game will likely be a black hole.
The Bengals play zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate, and Jamison Crowder is averaging only 3.7 yards per reception against zone coverage this season. Elijah Moore or Denzel Mims could finally step up, but their playing time will likely be cut into by Keelan Cole, who has played at least 40% of the snaps in each of the past four games. The Bengals DST is in play in cash games on DraftKings at $3,600.
Michael Carter is averaging 18.7 touches per game and is cash-viable at RB even in a tough matchup. Without Corey Davis, Carter will likely be the centerpiece of the offense and proved he could overcome bad game script last week with eight catches for 67 yards on nine targets.
- Cash Plays: RB Michael Carter, WR Ja’Marr Chase, DST Bengals
- GPP Plays: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd, TE C.J. Uzomah, DST Bengals
Betting Pick
This is a classic letdown spot for the Bengals after a resounding 41-17 thrashing of the Ravens and with the Browns on deck. Unfortunately, the Jets are a classic letdown — year after year — and they already used up their upset card by beating the Titans.
I can’t lay 11 points on the road with Zac Taylor and the Bengals; I also can’t bet on Mike White in his first pro start.
Pick: Pass
Steelers at Browns
DFS Plays
The Browns defense is ranked third in DVOA against the run and is allowing just 31.4 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to RBs, seventh-fewest, so this is a week to fade Najee Harris.
The Browns play zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league, which sets up well for Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth (who should see a big uptick in usage with Eric Ebron out); Chase Claypool tends to be more heavily featured when Ben Reothlisberger gets man-coverage looks.
The Browns are second in pressure rate (29.8%) and Roethlisberger is averaging just 4.7 YPA under pressure, so the Browns DST is viable in cash games on FanDuel at just $4,000.
The Steelers are generating pressure 28.6% of the time, third-best, so this is a potential meltdown spot for Baker Mayfield, who will play through his shoulder injury. Jarvis Landry is Mayfield’s only healthy starting WR, as Odell Beckham is playing through a shoulder injury and Donovan Peoples-Jones will sit out with a groin issue.
Nick Chubb will be back, which should push D’Ernest Johnson into the Kareem Hunt role, but the Steelers are ninth in DVOA against the run and 11th on passes to RBs, so I’m fading this whole offense and playing Steelers DST instead.
- Cash Plays: DST Browns
- GPP Plays: WR Diontae Johnson, TE Pat Freiermuth
Betting Pick
The Steelers are well-equipped to handle the Browns: Pittsburgh ranks ninth in run-defense DVOA and third in pressure rate (28.58%). And of Baker Mayfield’s 60 dropbacks this season, only 14 have ended with completed passes, and only one ended in a touchdown.
This isn’t a bet on the Steelers offense, which will likely struggle against a Browns defense that is second in pressure (29.8%), though it is 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Rather, this is a bet on the spot for the Steelers. They’re coming off a bye and seeking revenge on a team that dashed their playoff hopes with a resounding 48-37 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score.
Say what you want about Mike Tomlin, but he is brilliant in these spots when everyone is counting his team out. According to our Action Labs data, Tomlin is 36-15-2 (71%) ATS in his career as an underdog from Week 3 on, and he is 28-7-1 (80%) ATS overall as an underdog versus an opponent with an equal or better win-loss record.
Pick: Steelers +4 (to +3)
49ers at Bears
DFS Plays
With Justin Fields averaging just 149.2 passing yards per start, the Bears are being instead forced to rely on the best rookie in their offensive backfield, Khalil Herbert. Even with Damien Williams back last week, Williams played 77% of the snaps and impressively rattled off 100 yards versus the Bucs vanted run defense. Herbert is cash-viable against a 49ers defense that got gashed for 18/107/1 by Jonathan Taylor last week.
Fields has taken 20 sacks, thrown five interceptions and averaged just 13.4 points per game in five starts, so I’d rather play the 49ers DST than any of Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney or Cole Kmet.
Elijah Mitchell is averaging 16.8 touches for 81.5 scrimmage yards per game. After an 80-yard first quarter last week, Mitchell carried just nine times for 27 yards over the final three, but 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan should have all day to right that wrong against the offensively inept Bears. The Bears set up as somewhat of a run funnel defense, ranking seventh in DVOA against the pass but 17th against the run.
The Bears pass rush will be without Khalil Mack, which should give Jimmy Garoppolo enough time to find the only receiver he looks for: Deebo Samuel, who has accounted for 34% of his team’s targets and 44% of their yards.
Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, has caught more than two passes in a game only once this season. The Bears are third in DVOA against TEs, so we also shouldn’t expect Ross Dwelley to suddenly come to life, either.
- Cash Plays: RB Khalil Herbert
- GPP Plays: RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Deebo Samuel, DST 49ers
Betting Pick
At first glance, I thought this might be a good spot to buy back into the Bears after last week’s embarrasing 38-3 defeat to the champs, but missing Khalil Mack is a big deal since Justin Fields takes sacks at a rate that makes every defense look like it has 11 Khalil Macks.
The 49ers are too incosistent to lay points with on the road, but the Bears look to be trending downward.
The under 39.5 is tempting, but there’s just no margin for error, especially with both of these offenses in the top eight in turnover rate, which could provide the defenses with short fields.
Pick: Pass
Jaguars at Seahawks
DFS Plays
James Robinson has seen at least 19 touches in each of the past four games. The Seahawks have been decent against the run, ranking 11th in DVOA. But given his workload, Robinson is one of the top players on the slate at RB and is cash-viable on DraftKings at $6,600.
After allowing 11/270/2 on 14 targets in his first two starts, LCB Sidney Jones has come on to allow just 3/22/0 on seven targets over his last two games. The Seahawks play zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate, which actually makes Marvin Jones less intriguing, as he has 12 more targets than anyone else on the team versus man coverage but is just third in the team in targets versus zone (15).
Instead, I’d pivot to Laviska Shenault, who leads the team in targets (24), catches (21) and yards (269) versus zone; and Jamal Agnew, who has caught 11-of-11 targets for 138 yards versus zone this season and has become the team’s WR3, running a route on 71% of Trevor Lawrence dropbacks over the past two games.
Dan Arnold also has more targets versus zone than jones this season and is worth a dart throw in GPPs. Arnold has run a route on 70% of Lawrence’s dropbacks since being acquired from Carolina.
Geno Smith is averaging just 27.0 pass attempts for 188.0 yards and 1.0 TDs per game in two starts. However, those numbers did come against two above-average pass defenses in the Steelers (13th) and Saints (sixth) while the Jaguars rank dead last.
I wouldn’t play Smith, but I have no problem taking a shot on D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett here. The Jaguars play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate and are 30th in DVOA on passes to the right, the coverage and area of the field which Lockett tends to see the most action, so this is his best shot yet to be productive with Smith at the helm.
Joe Scarnici/Getty Images. Pictured: D.K. Metcalf
The Jaguars are ranked 31st in DVOA versus TEs, but Gerald Everett isn’t a realistic option after clearing three targets once in five games.
The Jaguars are ranked 20th in run-defense DVOA, so the Seahawks will likely continue to center their offense around Alex Collins. Despite playing only 39% of the snaps last week, Collins had 17 touches. He is averaging 19.3 touches per game in three starts and has multi-TD upside in GPPs, especially if Smith can move the ball better through the air.
- Cash Plays: RB James Robinson
- GPP Plays: RB Alex Collins, WR D.K. Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, TE Dan Arnold
Betting Pick
I can’t lay points with Geno Smith, but it is also against my principles to bet on Urban Meyer. Easy pass.
Pick: Pass
Patriots at Chargers
DFS Plays
The Chargers activated DT Justin Jones, but he alone won’t be able to offset a run defense that’s ranked 32nd in DVOA against the run. This is another nice GPP spot for Damien Harris, who already has three 100-yard games and two multi-TD games this season. The spiked weeks for Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor last week were due to the game script in a 54-13 laugher against the Jets.
The Chargers are a run funnel, ranking third in pass-defense DVOA, so this is not a week to expect big things out of Mac Jones, Jakobi Meyers and Co. The one exception is Hunter Henry, as the Chargers are ranked 30th in DVOA to TEs but eighth or better versus all other positions.
The last time Justin Herbert faced a Bill Belichick defense, Herbert completed 26-of-53 (49.1%) passes for 209 yards (3.9 YPA) with no TDs and two interceptions in a 45-0 loss at home. That Patriots defense ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass while this year’s version is ranked 14th, so Herbert is a dicey proposition this week despite coming off a bye.
The Patriots play the highest rate of man coverage in the league, so this spot favors Keenan Allen over Mike Williams. Allen has 15 catches on 21 targets for 211 yards versus man while Williams has only eight catches on 15 targets for 89 yards, though he does have two TDs.
The Patriots are ranked ninth in DVOA to TEs but 29th in DVOA versus RBs, so Austin Ekeler will likely continue to be the preferred checkdown option over Jared Cook. Allen and Ekeler are the only two players I trust for the Chargers in this spot.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: RB Austin Ekeler, RB Damien Harris, WR Keenan Allen, TE Hunter Henry
Betting Pick
By almost any metric, this is a matchup between two evenly matched teams:
DVOA: Patriots +5.3% (13th), Chargers +0.3% (17th)
Net Points Per Drive: Chargers +0.13 (12th), Patriots 0.12 (13th)
Schedule-Adjusted Margin of Victory (a.k.a. Simple Rating System, or SRS): Patriots +0.4 (16th), Chargers +0.3 (17th)
Coming off the bye coupled with the Chargers’ bottom-tier home-field advantage doesn’t equate to a four-point edge, especially after the Cam Newton-led Patriots came into LA and skunked the Chargers, 45-0, last season.
This is a game in which the little things could come into play — like how the Chargers are ranked dead-last in special teams DVOA (and just changed kickers) while the Patriots are 12th.
Bill Belichick has done well in the past avoiding a letdown after a big win, going 49-29-3 (63%) ATS since 2003 when coming off a win of 17 or more points.
Pick: Patriots +4.5 (to +3)
Football Team at Broncos
DFS Plays
In three starts in place of the injured Logan Thomas, Ricky Seals-Jones is averaging 5.0 catches for 50.0 yards and 0.33 TDs on 7.3 targets. He is cash-viable on DraftKing at $3,800 against a Broncos defense that is ranked 19th in DVOA against TEs.
Denver’s secondary is struggling and is ranked 31st in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs, so this is also an underrated blowup spot for Terry McLaurin, especially with the team missing WRs Dyami Brown (knee) and Curtis Samuel (groin) in addition to Thomas.
With a couple of his pass catchers in plus-matchups and a man-heavy scheme that allows opportunities to scramble against defenders who have their backs turned, I like Taylor Heinicke as a low-cost contrarian GPP play.
Now off the injury report, Antonio Gibson is a strong GPP play against a Broncos defense that has gotten gashed for 5.0 yards per carry and six total TDs by RBs over the past three weeks.
The Broncos activated Jerry Jeudy, who immediately becomes a GPP option against a Washington defense that is ranked 29th in pass-defense DVOA. Washington is ranked 22nd in DVOA versus WR1s and 32nd versus WRs, so Courtland Sutton remains in play. Tim Patrick could also pop, as Washington is ranked 27th versus non-WR1/2s, but I’d rather not play him while he is priced so similarly to Jeudy.
While eighth in DVOA versus TEs, Washington has allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted yards to opposing TEs in what has been a tough schedule, but this is by no means a prohibitive matchup for Noah Fant.
With 12 games on the main slate, it doesn’t make sense to touch the platoon of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, who have split touches almost evenly. Washington is a pass funnel, ranking eighth in run-defense DVOA but 29th versus the pass. Teddy Bridgewater looked hobbled in his last start but has had 10 days to rest up and is a sneaky GPP option as well.
- Cash Plays: TE Ricky Seals-Jones
- GPP Plays: QB Taylor Heinicke, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Noah Fant
Betting Pick
The market is dead on with this spread and total. The most likely outcome is the Broncos’ home-field advantage making the difference in a 23-20 or 24-21 type of game.
Pick: Pass
Buccaneers at Saints
DFS Plays
With Marshon Lattimore likely to shadow Mike Evans, Antonio Brown out and Rob Gronkowski working his way back from a rib injury, this will likely be a Chris Godwin game.
The Saints are ranked second in run-defense DVOA, so I still expect a high-volume day for Tom Brady, but he could be inefficient targeting Evans, who caught only five balls for 66 yards and one TD on 10 targets across two meetings with the Saints in the regular season last year before catching only one pass for three yards and a TD on three targets in the Divisional Round against New Orleans.
With the Saints also ranking second in DVOA versus TEs, we might see No. 3 WR Tyler Johnson become more involved, so I’d look to stack him with Brady as a pivot off Evans.
The Saints are allowing just 2.78 yards per carry and 55.5 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Leonard Fournette loses time to Giovani Bernard in this game, as the Saints have been mediocre (15th in DVOA) at defending passes out of the backfield.
The Bucs are ranked fourth in DVOA against the run but 24th on passes to RBs, so Alvin Kamara is still worth playing in GPPs, as the tough matchup may scare some off rostering him. Even with Mark Ingram back in the fold after being acquired from the Texans, Kamara still has the upside to go for more than 100 receiving yards, as he did last week.
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Alvin Kamara.
Sean Payton does not want Jameis Winston getting into a QB duel with Tom Brady, #RevengeGame narrative be damned.
Tre’Quan Smith returned to run a route on 61% of Winston’s dropbacks last week, but the only Saints pass catcher worth rostering is Marquez Callaway, who ran a route on 98% of dropbacks last week and 84% on the season. The Bucs have weathered the storm, injury-wise, in their secondary and are up to 11th in pass-defense DVOA, so I’d only use Callaway in stacks with the Bucs passing game, as he will likely still need trailing game script-induced volume to have a big game.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Tom Brady, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Godwin, WR Marquez Callaway, WR Tyler Johnson
Betting Pick
On defense, the Saints are third in DVOA, including second against the run and sixth against the pass. They can take away a lot of what the Bucs do well on offense (Mike Evans, tight ends, the run), which could make the Bucs feel the absence of Anotnio Brown (ankle) more than most weeks.
On offense, the Saints are better suited than most teams to deal with the Bucs’ strong run defense, as they will still be able to get the ball to Alvin Kamara in the passing game as Tampa Bay is ranked 24th in DVOA on passes to running backs.
The Saints could muck up this game and narrowly edged out the Lions for my moneyline underdog pick of the week on this week’s Action Network NFL Podcast.
I lean under in this game, but I am not going to pull the trigger because I fear both teams will pass a ton due to the excellent run defense on each side.
Pick: Lean Saints +185, Lean Under 49
DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
- QB Jalen Hurts $7,200 at DET
- RB James Robinson $6,600 at SEA/Darrell Henderson $6,500 at HOU
- RB Khalil Herbert $5,400 vs. SF
- RB Michael Carter $4,900 vs. CIN
- WR Ja’Marr Chase $7,500 at NYJ
- WR Brandin Cooks $5,700 vs. LAR
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. $5,300 vs. TEN
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones $3,800 at DEN
- DST Cincinnati Bengals $3,600 at NYJ
FanDuel
- QB Jalen Hurts $8,400 at DET
- RB Darrell Henderson $7,700 at HOU
- RB Khalil Herbert $6,500 vs. SF
- RB Michael Carter $5,400 vs. CIN
- WR Ja’Marr Chase $8,200 at NYJ
- WR Stefon Diggs $7,300 vs. MIA
- WR Brandin Cooks $6,000 vs. LAR
- TE T.J. Hockenson $6,200 vs. PHI
- DST Cleveland Browns $4,000 vs. PIT
