Chris Raybon previews all 10 matchups on Sunday afternoon’s Week 7 NFL slate, featuring daily fantasy plays and betting picks for each. He also outlines his cash game lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bengals at Ravens
DFS Plays
Despite being banged up the last two games, Joe Mixon is still sixth in touches per game (20.7). Now healthy, he is cash-viable against a mediocre Ravens defense that’s ranked 13th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA and 29th in DVOA on passes to running backs.
The Ravens play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, which should leave RCB Anthony Averett singled up on Ja’Marr Chase. Averett has been opposing quarterbacks’ target of choice, seeing the third-most yards (48) and allowing the third-most yards (395) among cornerbacks through six weeks.
Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has dialed back his blitz-heavy ways, blitzing on “only” 32.0% of opposing dropbacks (fifth-most in the NFL) after sending extra pressure at a league-high 44.1% rate last season. It makes sense to give Averett help over the top and play coverage against Joe Burrow, who is averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and one interceptions on 47 attempts against the blitz this season. Either way, I like the Ravens DST as the top cash-game play this week, as Burrow has the third-highest interception rate (4.0%) and seventh-highest sack rate (8.4%) in the league.
The Ravens’ scheme should also favor Tyler Boyd, who led the Bengals in targets against man coverage last season (45) and is second behind Chase (13) this season with nine. Boyd will match up with Tavon Young, who clocks in 91st of 118 qualified corners in PFF’s grades. Tee Higgins, meanwhile, figures to match up most often with Marlon Humphrey, who ranks 15th.
C.J. Uzomah could adobe a sneaky play here. Uzomah is second on the team in catches (6) and yards (117) against man coverage, also leading the team with three TDs. The Ravens are allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends (77.2).
Lamar Jackson is in for a challenging matchup against a Bengals defense that’s ranked fourth in rushing DVOA and eighth in passing DVOA. This isn’t a smash spot like it was for Jackson like it was in years past, but he should still be able to do enough to finish as one of the highest-scoring QBs on the slate, especially since the Bengals are only 22nd in pressure rate (22.9%). Jackson is averaging a career-high 281.0 passing yards per game and adding 65.3 yards per game on the ground.
In his first game, rookie Rashod Bateman caught only four passes for 29 yards, but his underlying metrics were promising enough to fire him up as a punt play at WR3 in DraftKings cash games at just $3,400. Bateman ran a route on 67% of Jackson’s dropbacks — a figure that is likely to increase this week with Bateman further along from his preseason groin injury and with Sammy Watkins (thigh) slated to miss his second straight game — and was targeted on a stellar 27% of his routes. Bateman’s targets were evenly distributed between the left, middle and right.
The Bengals are 22nd in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs and 18th against TEs, so this is not a daunting matchup for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, who are high-upside GPP plays who will likely see lower rostership than Bateman.
Last week, Latavius Murray led the backfield with 38% of the snaps, while Le’Veon Bell played 32% and Devonta Freeman played 30%. With Murray (ankle) out, Ty’Son Williams should become the third wheel of what has devolved into a useless committee, fantasy-wise.
- Cash Plays: RB Joe Mixon, WR Rashod Bateman, DST Ravens
- GPP Plays: QB Lamar Jackson, WR Marquise Brown, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Mark Andrews, TE C.J. Uzomah
Betting Pick
The Ravens are rolling, but this is the best version of the Bengals in awhile. I expect the Ravens to pull out a win, but they’re just 12-21-1 (36%) against the spread (ATS) as divisional home favorites under John Harbaugh, so this is a teaser piece for me.
Pick: Tease Ravens from -6.5 to -0.5
Panthers at Giants
DFS Plays
After getting three straight weeks of a front-and-center look at the misery of the Sam Darnold experience that Jets fans were subjected to for the prior three years, Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has decided he wants his team to recommit to the run. Halloween is coming, so Rhule is proactively creating a ghost-averse game plan for Darnold. Rookie Chuba Hubbard is averaging 20.3 touches per game in three starts in place of Christian McCaffrey and is a top cash game play against a Giants defense that is ranked 27th in DVOA against the run.
The Giants are below-average in pass defense (22nd in DVOA) and mediocre against WR1s (16th) and WR2s (15th), but this is a week to lay off Darnold, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson as the banged-up Giants offense offers little hope of turning this game into a shootout with a Panthers team set on establishing the run.
The Giants are third-worst in DVOA on passes over the short middle, but rookie Shi Smith and Alex Erickson ended up splitting the slot duties in the absence of Terrace Marshall, who is out this week with a concussion. Rookie Tommy Tremble is also splitting work with veteran Ian Thomas at TE, so all are only viable on one-game Showdown slates.
Daniel Jones will be without WRs Kadarius Toney (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and LT Andrew Thomas (IR-ankle) against a Panthers defense that’s ranked fourth in pressure rate (28.6%). With Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Evan Engram (calf) suffering setbacks in practice, this is a week to fade Jones and stack Hubbard with the Panthers DST.
With the insertion of rookie fifth-round pick Keith Taylor at LCB, the Panthers now feature a cornerback group that features three players who are ranked in PFF’s top-35 at the position: Taylor (fourth), RCB Donte Jackson (33rd) and SCB A.J. Bouye (35th). Even if Shepard and Engram miss, there’s not enough separation (no pun intended) between Dante Pettis, Collin Johnson and John Ross (questionable-hamstring) to make them viable options at WR in anything other than a Showdown slate. The same is true for Kyle Rudolph and Kaden Smith at TE.
The Panthers are somewhat of a run funnel, ranking seventh in DVOA against the pass but 18th against the run, making Devontae Booker the one viable option on the Giants’ doomed offense.
- Cash Plays: RB Chuba Hubbard
- GPP Plays: RB Devontae Booker, DST Panthers
Betting Pick
This is a tough matchup for the Giants without their top playmakers.
The Panthers are fourth in pressure rate (28.6%), but Daniel Jones will also be without left tackle Andrew Thomas, who was allowing a pressure on 3.8% of dropbacks. Sliding over to replace him in the lineup will be Nate Solder, who has allowed a pressure on 8.8% of dropbacks this season. At right tackle will be Matt Peart, who has allowed a pressure 8.4% of the time in his career. Jones has been fine from a clean pocket, posting a 65.6% completion percentage, 7.8 yards per attempt and a 37.5% first-down rate. When facing pressure, however, Jones dips to a 54.4% completion rate, 6.1 YPA and a 21.1% first-down rate while taking a sack 17.4% of the time.
Running back Devonate Booker is averaging 3.0 yards per carry and a 29% rushing success rate compared to 3.6 yards per carry and a 44% success rate for Saquon Barkley (out-ankle), so Jones is unlikely to get any help from his run game.
On the other side of the ball, this game should be more reminiscent of Weeks 1-3 Sam Darnold, as the Giants are ranked 31st with a 17.8% pressure rate. Darnold has a 55.7 rating with one TD and four interceptions under pressure, but a 91.1 rating with six TDs and three interceptions from a clean pocket.
The boo-happy Meadowlands have never been a good spot for Jones, who has covered in just 25% of his 16 home games as an NFL starter, per our Action Labs data.
Pick: Panthers -3 (to -3)
Football Team at Packers
DFS Plays
Ricky Seals-Jones has taken over the full Logan Thomas role, running a route on 90% of Taylor Heinicke’s dropbacks over the past two weeks while averaging 4.5 catches for 49.5 yards and 0.5 TDs on 7.5 targets per game. RSJ is the top cash game play at TE against a Packers defense that is ranked 26th in DVOA against TEs.
Despite Heinicke’s disappointing showing against the Chiefs, I wouldn’t hesitate to use him in GPPs against the Packers’ 19th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Since the game in which elite shutdown corner Jaire Alexander went down, the Packers have surrendered a 9/92/1 line to Diontae Johnson, a 6/59/1 line to Ja’Marr Chase, and they even gave life to Darnell Mooney (5/45/1) and Allen Robinson (4/53/0) in a low-volume Bears pass offense.
This is a prime bounce-back spot for Terry McLaurin, who is averaging 5.5 catches for 71.3 yards and 0.5 TDs per game.
The Packers also struggle to cover the right side of the field (25th in DVOA), so this is a good spot for rookie Dyami Brown, who starts outside and most often lines up on the right. Brown has a 14.1 average depth of target and is a nice contrarian GPP play who can also be used as a pivot off Seals-Jones for leverage. Brown played 80% of the snaps last week while No. 3 wideout Adam Humphries saw a season-low 53%.
With Anthony Gibson gutting it out through a cracked shin, J.D. McKissic saw his snap rate increase to 61% last week, garnering eight carries and 10 targets. McKissic is a nice, low-cost GPP option against a Packers defense that’s ranked 30th in rushing DVOA and 24th on targets to RBs.
Aaron Rodgers is overpriced on DraftKings ($7,500) but does offer some value on Fanduel at $7,900. Rodgers has a high ceiling, but his floor is lower than you might think against Washington’s talented defensive line.
Despite struggling on the back-end, Washington is top-10 in pressure rate (26.8%), while Rodgers’ 35.9 passer rating under pressure ranks 33rd of 36 qualified QBs, ahead of only Tua Tagovailoa (27.4), Justin Fields (27.2) and Geno Smith (14.6). With Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan wearing invisibility cloaks on the majority of their routes, Rodgers will have issues on plays that he can’t get the ball to Davante Adams. After laying off Adams in a tough matchup against the Bears last week, it’s a good time to jump back on, as Washington’s beleaguered secondary has allowed 89.8 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs (second-most).
Washington has been decent in run defense (12th in DVOA), but it has allowed seven all-purpose TDs to RBs in six games and is ranked 30th in DVOA on passes to RBs, so Aaron Jones should get his. However, Jones’ salary puts him in no-man’s land — he has nowhere near as much upside as Derrick Henry since he plays only 64% snaps, and there are a bunch of other RBs such as Henderson, Mixon and Hubbard who are priced more affordably with similar upside.
- Cash Plays: TE Ricky Seals-Jones
- GPP Plays: QB Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel-only), QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Davante Adams, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Dyami Brown
Betting Pick
This world normally be a buy-low spot on a poor ATS team and fade of a strong ATS team, as these things tend to revert to the mean throughout the season. Case in point: Teams below 30% ATS facing teams 50% or better ATS in Weeks 6-15 are 108-45-6 (71%) ATS since 2003, according to our Action Labs data.
However, Aaron Rodgers is 57-27-3 (68%) at Lambeau when the line is -13 or less, which is too good for comfort despite the spot.
Pick: Pass
Chiefs at Titans
DFS Plays
Derrick Henry has five straight games of 20-plus carries and 113-plus rushing yards. Against a Chiefs defense that’s ranked 31st in DVOA against the run, King Henry gon’ eat. It’s worth noting that his $11,000 price tag on FanDuel leaves almost no margin for error, though, so I’d prefer using him in GPPs there and in cash games on DraftKings.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo made some changes that should help his 31st-ranked pass defense going forward, namely benching Daniel Sorenson in favor of Juan Thornhill at safety.
The Chiefs stymied Heinicke and McLaurin last week, so this doesn’t bode well for Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones — especially with left tackle Taylor Lewan out. After getting destroyed by Chandler Jones and Co. in Week 1 for five pressures and two sacks and then sitting out in Week 2, Lewan graded out as a top-10 pass-blocking tackle in Weeks 3-5 before a scary concussion knocked him out of Monday Night Football against the Bills last week. Spagnuolo has dialed up the fifth-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, so while in theory the entire Titans passing game has leverage on Henry, I would still only trust Brown here. Brown has seen 50% of his targets come against man coverage this season while Jones has been targeted against man only 21% of the time — perhaps a product of his age and injury issues.
This is a sneaky spot for the Chiefs DST, which will also provide extra value in the return game. (Remember, Isaiah McKenzie returned a kick 101 yards for a TD last week against the Titans, but it was called back due to an ill-advised hold.)
The Titans are ranked 27th in pass-defense DVOA and will be thin in the secondary after losing CBs Kristian Fulton (IR-hamstring) and Caleb Farley (IR-knee), so this is another week to pay up for Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Mecole Hardman is also in play as a lower-cost way to get exposure to the Chiefs passing game. The Titans play man coverage at the 11th-highest rate and will have no choice but to single up Hardman, who is averaging 6.5 catches for 71.0 yards per game over his last two. The Titans already are ranked 28th in DVOA versus No. 2 wide receivers and are allowing 81.8 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position (second-most).
Darrel Williams played 72% of the snaps and handled 24-of-28 (86%) backfield touches last week, making him a top-flight GPP play at RB against a Titans defense that’s ranked 21st in DVOA against the run.
- Cash Plays: RB Derrick Henry
- GPP Plays: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Darrel Williams, WR Tyreek Hill, WR A.J. Brown, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Travis Kelce, DST Chiefs
Betting Pick
This is a letdown spot for the Titans after beating the mighty Bills and Andy Reid is 42-23-1 (65%) ATS on the road with the Chiefs, though it does feel dangerous betting against Derrick Henry vs. a bad run defense.
Even though the Chiefs made some positive personnel changes on defense last week, giving more snaps to safety Juan Thornhill and linebacker Willie Gay, this is a game in which I’d lean over — totals this high tend to signal the books simply can’t make them high enough.
The Chiefs should be able to score here, and they are due for some turnover regression after turning it over on an NFL-high 22.8% of drives.
I lean Chiefs and the under, but you can follow me in the app (https://www.actionnetwork.com/picks/profile/130683) to see if I ultimately decide to pull the trigger.
Pick: Lean Chiefs -4 (to -4) | Lean Over 57.5 (to 58)
Falcons at Dolphins
DFS Plays
Matt Ryan’s average depth of target (aDOT) increased from 4.2 in Weeks 1-3 to 8.9 in Weeks 4-5, and he should be able to keep it going with WRs Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back coming off the bye. This is true even if cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones make their return for Miami, as they’ve combined to allow 38-of-61 passing for 575 yards with six TDs and one interception while grading out below average at PFF. The Dolphins play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which favors Ridley and Kyle Pitts, who lead the team in targets, catches and yards vs. man.
Cordarrelle Patterson has entered fantasy RB1 territory, but his price has also caught up to him. He’s a much better season-long than DFS play. In GPPs, I’d rather play Mike Davis, who is averaging 16.0 touches and a 66% snap rate.
This may be a prove-it game for Tua Tagovailoa with Deshaun Watson trade rumors swirling. Tagovailoa will likely be a popular low-cost option, but I’d rather Ryan in this game. Head coach Brian Flores will likely get back to the run after the Dolphins had 48 pass attempts and only 20 runs in a loss to the lowly Jaguars despite leading most of the game.
Jaylen Waddle is averaging just 6.7 yards per catch with no TDs vs. zone coverage compared to 11.8 yards per reception and 3 TDs versus man, so this is a week to fade him, as the Falcons play zone roughly two-thirds of the time. The returns of DeVante Parker and PReston Williams could also cut into Waddle’s target share.
The Falcons are ranked 32nd in DVOA on passes over the middle, an area in which Mike Gesicki leads the Dolphins with 17 targets while no one else has more than 10. He is the lone playable player on the Dolphins offense.
The backfield is a weekly quagmire, with Myles Gaskin showing up big one week and then disappearing the next. Intuition says Gaskin is involved more after going on a London milk carton last week, but he has played only 49% of the snaps this season, while Malcolm Brown has played 32% and Salvon Ahmed has played 19%.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Matt Ryan, RB Mike Davis, WR Calvin Ridley, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Mike Gesicki
Betting Pick
The Dolphins are something of a trendy underdog pick, getting 44% of bets and 59% of dollars wagered as of Saturday afternoon, according to our public betting data. I want nothing of it, though.
These teams are two different levels of bad: While the Falcons have been outgained by 7.0 yards per game, the Dolphins have been outgained by 127.8 yards per game. Cornerbacks Byron Jones (65th) and Xavien Howard (72nd) are both ranked below average among 118 qualified cornerbacks in PFF’s grades, so I’m not buying their potential returns as an equalizer, especially with the Falcons getting Calvin Ridley and Russell gage back at wide receiver.
After throwing just 4.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in Weeks 1-3, Matt Ryan is averaging 8.9 intended air yards over his last two games while the Falcons are top-10 in offensive EPA per play since Week 2. This is a matchup of two bad defenses, but the Falcons should have the superior offense.
Atlanta is also in a superior spot, as Miami chose not to have its bye right after going to London, while Atlanta is coming off its bye. Since 2003, road favorites off a bye have covered two-thirds of the time.
A bye also should really help Ryan, who is still learning Arthur Smith’s offense. One place Smith is already paying dividends is in situational football: Atlanta is fifth in third-down conversion rate (45.8%) and eighth in red-zone conversion rate (68.8%) — up from 10th and 26th, respectively, in 2020. Ryan tends to use bye weeks advantageously, and has crushed in these spots in the past, going 5-2 ATS on the road off a bye while covering by an average of 12.9 points.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (to -3)
Jets at Patriots
DFS Plays
Jets defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s unit is ranked 23rd in DVOA against the pass and 28th against No. 1 WRs, so this is a nice spot to fire up Jakobi Meyers in cash games on DraftKings at $5,300. Meyers is averaging 6.0 catches for 57.7 yards on 8.7 targets per game and has at least four catches in every contest. Saleh plays man at the 10th-highest rate, and Meyers has twice as many targets (22) as the second-highest Patriot (Hunter Henry, 11) against man coverage.
With Nelson Agholor struggling to get off man coverage (only two catches on 10 targets) and Kendrick Bourne playing only two-thirds of the snaps, the only other Patriots pass catcher to consider in GPPs is Hunter Henry, who is second on the team with eight catches against man coverage and faces a Jets defense that is ranked 21st in DVOA to TEs and 27th in schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game allowed to the position (74.3).
Remove two games against the elite run defense of the Saints and Bucs in which he totaled 10 yards on 10 carries, and Damien Harris is averaging 17.8 carries for 80.3 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. He’s a high-ceiling, low-floor GPP option against a Jets defense that has been mediocre at defending the run (16th in DVOA). Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson’s long-term arrow is pointing upward after playing a combined 40 snaps over the past two weeks, but there are better options outside of Showdown slates. And because the Patriots should control this game, this also isn’t a great spot for Mac Jones, who threw for a season-low 186 yards in the first matchup with the Jets due to game script reasons in a 25-6 victory.
This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense against rookie Zach Wilson, who despite already having a bye, leads the NFL with nine interceptions and is tied for second with 18 sacks allowed.
Wilson will have trouble getting the ball to Corey Davis, who Bill Belichick’s defense eliminated to the tune of season-lows in targets (5), catches (2) and yards (8). This should work in favor of slot receiver Jamison Crowder, who will face career special-teamer Justin Bethel in the slot.
With Crowder back after missing the first matchup and Davis to still account for, Belichick will likely be happy to concede the run, so this could be an underrated spot for rookie Michael Carter. Carter is averaging 13.5 touches per game over the past two and could set a new career-high coming off the bye.
- Cash Plays: WR Jakobi Meyers
- GPP Plays: RB Damien Harris, RB Michael Carter, WR Jamison Crowder, TE Hunter Henry, DST Patriots
Betting Pick
Ladies and gentlemen, your disgusting under play of the week: The Jets haven’t scored more than 14 points in their last five trips to Foxborough, while the Patriots are averaging just 20.8 points per game, 23rd in the NFL.
This is also the second of two divisional matchups this season, which tends to be played tighter and lower-scoring.
Pick: Under 43 (to 41)
Lions at Rams
DFS Plays
This is a Matthew Stafford #RevengeGame, but punishing a Lions defense that is allowing an NFL-high 14.5 yards per completion requires no added motivation. The Lions are below-average in passing DVOA to every area of the field, so I’m firing up all of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson and Tyler Higbee in various stacked combinations in GPPs this week. Woods has 64-plus yards and/or a TD in five of six games and is viable in cash games due to his mid-range price tag.
This is also a cash-viable week for Darrell Henderson, as the Rams are 16.5-point home favorites against a Lions defense that is ranked 25th in rushing DVOA. Henderson is averaging 18.6 touches for 98.2 yards and 1.0 TDs per game.
The Rams defense should feast on the familiar Jared Goff, making it tough to get revenge of his own on former head coach Sean McVay. The Rams are fourth in pass-defense DVOA and should be able to blanket the Lions’ non-existent wide receiving corps, forcing Goff to endedlessy check the ball down underneath to D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson.
While Amon-Ra St. Brown has five-plus catches in three straight games, this zone-heavy Rams defensive scheme sets up as a better spot for Kalif Raymond, who ran a route on 95% of Goff’s dropbacks last week. While Raymond has 20 targets against zone this season, St. Brown has only 13.
- Cash Plays: RB Darrell Henderson, WR Robert Woods
- GPP Plays: QB Matthew Stafford, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Kalif Raymond, WR Van Jefferson, WR DeSean Jackson, TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Tyler Higbee, DST Rams
Betting Pick
This could be a flat spot for the Rams after a get-right blowout of the Giants — West Coast teams returning home after a multi-game road trip are 57-87-5 (40%) ATS, and Sean McVay is just 7-18 (28%) ATS when on a multi-game winning straight-up winning streak — but Jared Goff is a living, breathing flat spot with no wide receivers facing a Rams defense that’s ranked fourth in passing DVOA and knows his tendencies.
Pick: Pass
Eagles at Raiders
DFS Plays
Despite not yet being able to quiet the narratives that he isn’t a franchise passer, Jalen Hurts has been a fantasy stud, ranking as the overall QB5 while posting at least 20 fantasy points in every game. He’s the top cash game play on DraftKings at just $6,900 against a Raiders defense that is ranked a middling 17th in passing DVOA and has allowed opposing QBs to rush for 140 yards (eighth-most).
Even though the Raiders traveled rejuvenated shutdown corner Casey Hayward with Courtland Sutton last week, Sutton was able to post an 8/94/1 line on 13 targets, primarily because the Raiders can’t truly match up since they play zone more than 80% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league.This gives life to De’Vonta Smith in GPPs, as the first-round rookie has struggled against man coverage — catching only 5-of-12 passes for 60 yards — but balled out against zone with 21 catches for 275 yards on 29 targets, all team-bests.
Dallas Goedert is second on the team with 132 receiving yards vs. zone looks and is a high-upside GPP option with Zach Ertz now in Arizona. The Raiders are ranked 23rd in DVOA vs. TEs and have allowed 75.4 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position (fifth-most). Due to the matchp, Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins should end up playing second-fiddle to Smith and Goedert in the passing game.
Miles Sanders set season-highs in snap rate in each of the past two weeks (75% and 83%) and is a nice leverage play off of Hurts. Despite ranking 10th in rushing DVOA, the Raiders have still given up fantasy points to fantasy RBs at an above-average rate. With long rest coming out of the bye, Eagles coaches have talked of getting Sanders more involved.
Derek Carr will face an Eagles defense that plays zone at the highest rate in the league under coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Gannon tends to dial up split safety looks with quarters coverage (four deep zones), which will help to eliminate the big plays that Carr has surprisingly made his hay on this season. This is not great news for Carr’s upside since he doesn’t run, but it is good news for Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, who are top two on the team in targets, catches and yards vs. zone. Waller is a nice pivot off Kelce in GPPs while Renfrow is cash-viable.
In his first game as interim head coach, Rich Bisaccia favored more 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) than his disgraced predecessor, Jon Gruden — but this is still a week to fade Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. Ruggs has 279 yards against man compared to only 157 against zone, while Edwards has 253 against man and 38 against zone.
Josh Jacobs saw 16 carries last week, but his price has climbed too high after back-to-back games with a rushing TD. Jacobs is still yet to top 53 rushing yards on the year, and though he struggled against the run last week, Fletcher Cox will likely help limit Jacobs to a pedestrian total once again.
After Kenyan Drake posted 73 yards and two TDs last week, the narrative is that Drake was in Gruden’s doghouse and has escaped under Bisaccia, but Drake played a season-low 12 snaps and saw only six touches last week. He’s not an option in anything other than showdown slates, especially with Jalen Richard back as the third man in the committee.
- Cash Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, WR Hunter Renfrow
- GPP Plays: RB Miles Sanders, WR De’Vonta Smith, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller, TE Dallas Goedert
Betting Pick
These are two middling teams, so the market is likely overrating the Raiders’ home-field advantage here, especially with the Eagles on long rest after the Thursday night game.
The Eagles run the zone-heaviest scheme in the NFL under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, which should limit the splash plays from Derek Carr, who is averaging 2.8 less yards per attempt vs. zone than man. Carr’s top target, Darren Waller, may also be at less than 100% after being added to the injury report Saturday with an ankle issue.
This is one of those games that fits our “Road Dog, Low Total After a Bad Season” PRO trend on Action Labs that I’ve filtered slightly to account for higher totals in the modern era and to remove meaningless games at the end of the season.
Pick: Eagles +3 (to +3)
Bears at Buccaneers
DFS Plays
Tom Brady will be without both Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski in this game, which should consolidate targets around Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With Godwins’s price dropping, he is cash-viable against a Bears defense that has turned to 2019 sixth-round safety Xavier Crawford as its nickel corner. The Bears are 28th in DVOA on passes to the short middle, which is an area of the field in which Godwin leads the Bucs in targets.
O.J. Howard played 65% of the snaps while Cameron Brate played 59% last week, and they will rotate in with WRs Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden as secondary targets to Godwin and Evans, making none usable outside of showdown slates.
Brady is a FanDuel-only option for me this week, as he’s discounted there compared to DraftKings.
Leonard Fournette is suddenly averaging 22.3 touches per game over his past three and will likely continue to be the centerpiece of the offense with the Bucs down two of their top four targets. The Bears set up as a run funnel, ranking 23rd in DVOA against the but sixth vs. the pass.
After two run-heavy wins in which Justin Fields was sacked only three times and threw one interception, the Bears were forced to play more aggressively against the Packers, resulting in four sacks and an interception (albeit one that shouldn’t have counted due to a missed offsides penalty by the zebras). This game script sets up similarly with the Bucs implied by the Vegas lines to put up 29 points. This is a week to roster both Fields and the Bucs DST in GPPs if you’re creating multiple lineups.
The Bucs are ranked 26th in DVOA on passes to the right, which is where Darnell Mooney leads the team with 18 targets to Allen Robinson’s 13. This sets up as a big week for Mooney, who has accounted for 29% of targets, 30% of catches, 39% of yards and 50% of TDs thrown by Fields.
With Jimmy Graham on the COVID list, Cole Kmet is worth a GPP dart throw against a Bucs defense that is ranked 19th in DVOA versus TEs. The Bucs play zone at the sixth-highest rate, and 68% of Kmets targets this season have come against zone coverage.
Khalil Hebert will likely lead a committee with Damien Williams after Williams was activated from the COVID list, but this backfield is a fade against a Bucs defense that’s ranked fifth in DVOA against the run and is allowing an NFL-low 40.5 yards per game to opposing RBs.
- Cash Plays: WR Chris Godwin
- GPP Plays: QB Tom Brady (FanDuel-only), QB Justin Fields, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans, TE Cole Kmet, DST Buccaneers
Betting Pick
Tom Brady is down two of his top four pass catchers, but it hasn’t been profitable to bet against the GOAT — especially coming off an ATS loss, when he is 62-35-2 (65%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Pass
Texans at Cardinals
DFS Plays
Kyler Murray is a top-two QB option this week and is cash-viable in a matchup with the Texans in which the Cardinals are implied by the Vegas odds to score 32.75 points, second-highest on the slate.
The Texans’ play mostly a Tampa 2 zone coverage scheme under salt-bearded coordinator Lovie Smith, which favors A.J. Green as the No. 2 option over Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk behind DeAndre Hopkins in a #RevengeGame. Green leads the Cardinals in targets (22), catches (18) and yards (317) vs. zone. This could also be a game in which the Cardinals feature their new toy, Zach Ertz, against a Texans defense that is ranked 26th in DVOA versus TEs.
With the Cardinals ballooning to 18-point favorites, this sets up as another James Conner game. Conner is averaging 13.2 carries to Chase Edmonds’ 8.8 and will be relied upon to salt away the clock once the Cardinals build a sufficient lead. The Texans will likely oblige, ranking 29th in run-defense DVOA.
The Cardinals DST is in a prime spot against rookie third-round pick Davis Mills, who has thrown six picks and been sacked 12 times in four starts. Brandin Cooks is still worth a look in GPPs based on usage alone, as he has run a route on 95% of Texans dropbacks this season and is averaging 6.7 catches for 80.2 yards on 9.5 targets per game.
The Texans’ only hope of keeping this game close is running the ball against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry to RBs. Mark Ingram is averaging 18.0 touches per game over his last two games and is worth a contrarian dart-throw in GPPs. This is a revenge game for David Johnson as well, and he will likely see a lot of the field as the team’s primary passing-down back, but he’s yet to top 51 scrimmage yards in a game and is still a fade.
- Cash Plays: QB Kyler Murray
- GPP Plays: RB James Conner, RB Mark Ingram, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Brandin Cooks, WR A.J. Green
Betting Pick
The Cardinals should continue to coast here unless they get caught up looking ahead to the Packers, but there has been no edge in betting these type of games. Since 2005, there have been 25 games with a spread of 17 or more points, with favorites and underdogs each going 12-12-1.
Pick: Pass
DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
- QB Jalen Hurts $6,900 at LV
- RB Derrick Henry $9,200 vs. KC
- RB Darrell Henderson $6,600 vs. DET
- RB Chuba Hubbard $6,100 at NYG
- WR Chris Godwin $5,900 vs. CHI
- WR Jakobi Meyers $5,300 vs. NYJ
- WR Rashod Bateman $3,400 vs. CIN
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones $3,700 at GB
- DST Baltimore Ravens $2,900 vs. CIN
FanDuel
- QB Kyler Murray $8,700 vs. HOU
- RB Darrell Henderson $8,000 vs. DET
- RB Chuba Hubbard $7,300 at NYG
- RB Joe Mixon $7,200 at BAL
- WR Robert Woods $6,800 vs. DET
- WR Chris Godwin $6,700 vs. DET
- WR Hunter Renfrow $5,600 vs. PHI
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones $5,400 at GB
- DST Baltimore Ravens $4,300 vs. CIN
