The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
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Giants at Packers
The Packers will host the Giants as 4.5-point favorites in Sunday’s Wild Card weekend finale. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are currently implied to score 24.5 points, while Eli Manning and the Giants are currently implied to score 20.0 points. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 in Green Bay earlier this season. The sun will set on Lambeau Field at 4:30pm ET on Sunday, so this game will be played under the lights in temperatures currently forecasted to be less than 10 degrees Fahrenheit.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
The Packers allowed the most passing yards (4,593), third-most passing touchdowns (31), and seventh-most DraftKings points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks (20.1) this season. Per our Trends tool, Green Bay allowed a +5.55 Plus/Minus to QBs — the third-highest mark in the league — over their final five games of the season. Manning is currently the No. 1 quarterback in Adam Levitan’s Player Model for DK, where he has FantasyLabs projected ownership of nine to 12 percent in tournaments. The matchup on paper is good and a potentially negative game script may have Manning passing a lot.
Concerning is the fact that Manning has not scored 20 DK points in a game since November 14th and he scored less than nine DK points in two of his most recent four games. With an excellent Giants defense on his side, Manning has become more of a game manager down the stretch, passing for 201 yards or less in five of his final six games.
For what it’s worth, Manning has played in two games with temperatures below 32 degrees since 2014, in which he has averaged 9.43 DK points per game and yielded a -5.76 Plus/Minus. Eli is a volatile play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for owners looking to differentiate their lineups at QB.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings and rookie Paul Perkins make up the dreaded two-man committee at running back for the Giants. Even though Jennings logged 18 carries and scored a touchdown last week, he was out-touched and out-produced by Perkins in that game. Jennings currently has the lowest FL projected ownership (nine to 12 percent) among running backs who have a double-digit median projection on DK. With Perkins seemingly taking over the position, it’s very difficult to trust Jennings in this spot.
RB – Paul Perkins
Perkins turned a season-high 21 carries into 102 rushing yards (the first 100-yard game of his career) last week. Perkins out-carried Jennings 62-60 during the final four games of the season and appears poised for a larger role heading into Wild Card weekend. With the uncertainty currently at the Giants RB position, choosing to play either back without clarity is a risky proposition. However, news in New York suggests Perkins may be taking control of the backfield.
Perkins started the season finale against the Redskins and ESPN’s Jordan Raanan expects that to be the case in Green Bay this week. If Perkins is named the starter, he makes for an intriguing salary-saving play on DK, where he’s priced at just $4,100. Follow our NFL News feed for any updates on this fluid situation.
Regardless of who gets the start for the Giants, it’s worth pointing out that the Packers did allow a +3.93 Plus/Minus on DK to enemy backs during the final three games of the season. Zach Zenner and Jordan Howard each scored at least 21 DK points against them, and the two Minnesota RBs combined for 22.9 DK points.
WR – Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham currently has the highest projected ceiling among wide receivers on both DK and FanDuel this week. He also parties with Justin Bieber which is . . . cool? #BieberGate.
Odell averaged a mammoth 12 targets per game during his final five games of the 2016 regular season, and he scored at least 19.3 DK points in four games during that time frame. Per our Matchups tool, Beckham is likely to see Green Bay cornerback LaDarius Gunter, whose 77.4 Pro Football Focus coverage grade ranks him 44th at the position this season. It’s likely, however, that the Giants will find a way to get Beckham some shots at Damarious Randall, whose 39.1 PFF coverage grade is the eighth-worst score at the cornerback position in 2016. The Packers allowed the most receiving yards (3,017) and touchdowns (26) to WRs this season.
Fitting Odell into an Aaron Rodgers game correlation stack would be sharp thinking.
WR – Sterling Shepard
To score or not to score: That is the question. In the eight games in which he scored a touchdown this season, Shepard averaged 13.23 FD PPG. In the eight games in which he did not score a touchdown this season, Shepard averaged 5.76 FD PPG. Shepard is currently the No. 1 WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Player Models for FD (he’s rated No. 2 in the Levitanimal model), where he has FL projected ownership of zero to one percent in GPPs.
Per our Trends tool, no team in the NFL allowed more FD PPG (13.48) or a larger Plus/Minus (+7.14) to WRs in the final three games of the regular season than the Packers. Pairing the low-owned Shepard with Manning is an enticing contrarian GPP strategy.
WR – Victor Cruz
Other than the #injurynarrative game at Philadelphia, Cruz has been an afterthought in this Giants offense. Cruz has scored 5.3 FD points or less in eight of the Giants’ final nine games.
TE – Will Tye
Green Bay allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends (1,004) but finished the regular season ranked seventh in pass defense against TEs, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Tye was targeted an average of 4.6 times per game during the final five weeks of the regular season but failed to score more than 8.7 DK points in any of those games. He is, however, extremely cheap and currently has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+2.75) on DK among TEs.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers ended the season on fire, as he threw for multiple touchdowns in 10 of his last 11 games with seven of those performances including three-plus touchdowns. He’ll face the Giants in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, where Rodgers has historically thrived:
Per our Trends tool, Rodgers has posted a +5.17 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 24.75 DraftKings points at home over the past three seasons. Unlike most mortal QBs, he’s continued to thrive at home even in sub-freezing temperatures.
Rodgers has somehow been even more effective at home when playing in games in which the temperature has been below 32 degrees. The only thing standing in his way this week is his matchup against the Giants’ buzz-saw of a defense:
The 2015 Broncos were better at limiting opposing passing games in terms of yardage allowed, but the 2016 Giants defense has been more opportunistic and have allowed fewer points than one of the better defenses in recent memory. Rodgers saw first-hand how difficult the Giants secondary can be to navigate, as he went 23-for-45 and threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions during the Packers’ Week 5 win over the Giants. He’s priced at $8,600 on FanDuel with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and has an 11.1-point projected floor.
RB – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery appeared to be poised to take over the Packers’ backfield after he exploded for 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns during the team’s Week 15 win over the Bears, but thus far that hasn’t been the case. Overall, he’s converted his 24 touches into 101 total yards and zero touchdowns over the past two weeks. This isn’t terrible production, but he’s far from the team’s featured back. Fullback Aaron Ripkowski played 36 snaps compared to 35 for Montgomery last week (although this may have been due to Montgomery being briefly benched for messing up a screen pass during the second quarter). Montgomery could have a tough time getting back on track this week against a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest average fantasy points to running backs this season. He’s priced at $6,800 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.78 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Aaron Ripkowski and Christine Michael
Ripkowski was the Packers’ most effective running back last week, as he converted his 11 touches into 76 total yards and a touchdown. Still, it was just his second game all season with more than five touches. Meanwhile, Michael has struggled to get much of anything going with the Packers, as he’s gained just 72 yards on 30 carries if you remove his lone 42-yard touchdown run against the Bears. Neither back is a recommended fantasy option this week due to their volatile workloads.
WR – Jordy Nelson
The case for Nelson:
• He’s been held under 60 yards without a touchdown just once this season.
• He scored a league-high 14 touchdowns and was the most targeted receiver in the red zone.
• His average of 9.7 targets per game ranks fifth among all wide receivers.
The case against Nelson:
• He’ll likely be shadowed by Janoris Jenkins, PFF’s eighth-highest graded cornerback this season.
• The Giants rank second in DVOA against No. 1 WRs this season.
• Nelson converted his 13 targets into a modest 4-38-1 line during the Packers’ Week 5 win over the Giants. Jenkins had two picks.
Nelson has also failed to make much of an impact in the playoffs in recent years, partially due to his less-than-stellar workload:
It’s tough to bet against the No. 1 WR on the league’s hottest offense, but Rodgers has shown in recent playoff history that he’s not willing to force-feed Nelson the ball at the expense of the offense. Nelson costs $8,000 on DK and a season-high $8,500 on FD.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams has been targeted at least six times in 11 straight weeks. He’s failed to receive double-digit targets since Week 8 but has been efficient enough all season that his lack of an elite workload hasn’t really mattered. Overall, Adams’ average of 2.01 fantasy points per target ranks 12th among all WRs this season. Still, he could find himself lined up against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, PFF’s second-highest graded cornerback this season. Adams is priced at $5,600 on DK with five Pro Trends and has a 26-point projected ceiling.
WR – Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison
Cobb hasn’t played since Week 15 and wasn’t very involved in the offense prior to being injured. Overall, he was targeted just seven total times during his last three games. If Cobb is ultimately unable to suit up again, Allison will step in as the Packers’ No. 3 receiver. At 6’3″ and 196 pounds, Allison has solid size to make up for his underwhelming speed and athleticism. He’s played well when given a decent-sized role in the offense, as he’s averaged a 4-78.5-0.5 line during his two games with five-plus targets this season. Allison is priced at $3,300 on DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook’s role in the offense has finally stabilized a bit, as he’s been targeted five-plus times in three consecutive weeks. He’s benefited from Rodgers’ big arm, as Cook’s 12.1-yard aDOT is the fourth-highest mark among all tight ends over the past three weeks. Cook will look to keep rolling against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against TEs this season. He’s priced at $3,600 on DK with a 17.1-point projected ceiling.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
